By Brian Blackstone and Patricia Minczeski
ZURICH -- The euro briefly exceeded 1.20 Swiss francs Thursday
and again early Friday, a level it hasn't reached in over three
years, marking a milestone for Switzerland's economy that was
battered, but not broken, by its strong currency.
Switzerland's ability to survive, and even thrive, is a
counterpoint to recent comments by policy makers around the world
who seemed to signal a preference for weaker currencies to juice
exports or inflation.
It is a contradiction that has bedeviled the Alpine economy for
years. The Swiss economy was considered stable and safe by global
investors, driving up the franc's value, which in turn put the
foundation of its export-led growth at risk.
The Swiss lesson, analysts said, is that nimble labor markets,
productivity and an emphasis on high-value exports that aren't
super sensitive to prices are just as important to a country's
competitiveness as the exchange rate. A strong currency raises
purchasing power for households and businesses.
"In 2015, when [the Swiss National Bank] gave up the euro-franc
floor and you had this sharp appreciation, people thought the
economy would cave in but it didn't. It looks like the Swiss
economy was resilient to the strong franc," said Stefan Gerlach,
chief economist at EFG Bank and former deputy governor of Ireland's
central bank.
How we got here: During the financial crisis and eurozone
downturns, the Swiss franc strengthened, buoyed by its haven
status
The Swiss National Bank imposed a floor of 1.2 francs a euro,
and bought assets in other currencies to boost them against the
franc
On Jan. 15, 2015, the SNB stunned global financial markets by
abandoning the euro-franc floor.
The euro fetched 1.2008 francs early Friday, up 12% in the last
year. Analysts attributed the move, in part, to reduced political
uncertainty in Europe and greater investor confidence in the global
economy, easing demand for the haven franc.
The franc is by no means weak, and it is still considerably
stronger than the 1.40 to 1.50 rate to the euro before Europe's
debt crisis began in 2010. The Swiss currency is up 3% against the
U.S. dollar in the past year.
Exchange rates have been front and center for finance officials
this year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin caused a stir
three months ago with comments that investors interpreted as
signaling a preference for a weaker dollar.
"A weaker dollar is good for trade. In the longer term, a
stronger dollar is a reflection of the strength of the U.S.
economy," he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, a departure
from the unwritten code among policy makers not to comment too
directly on currencies.
Since then, President Donald Trump has chastised China and
Russia for their currency policies. "Russia and China are playing
the Currency Devaluation game as the U.S. keeps raising interest
rates," he wrote on Twitter Monday. "Not acceptable!"
The Swiss, for their part, have tried to devalue the franc on
and off for several years. In September 2011, the SNB said that it
wouldn't allow the euro-franc rate to fall below 1.20 and that it
would intervene in currency markets if needed to enforce that
floor. They held the line for more than three years.
But by early 2015 the peg became too costly to maintain and
exposed the Swiss central bank to financial risks given the vast
sums of foreign stocks and bonds it accumulated through years of
currency intervention.
Without warning, the SNB abandoned the euro-franc floor on Jan.
15, 2015. That sent the franc soaring as much as 30% against the
euro in a single day even though the SNB also cut its deposit rate
to minus 0.75%. In the blink of an eye, one euro went from buying
1.2 francs to buying less than one franc.
That made Swiss products from watches to machine tools and ski
vacations a lot more expensive in other countries. And it made
foreign goods cheap, pushing consumer prices into negative
territory. The worry was that this combination -- coupled with
negative interest rates -- would plunge the wealthy but
export-dependent economy into recession.
Abandoning the peg hit tourism...
...and exports sensitive to exchange rates.
But some of Switzerland's major exports aren't sensitive to
exchange rates
While sectors like tourism suffered, the overall economy avoided
recession and, in recent months, has been growing at around a 2%
annual rate. The unemployment rate is below 3%. After years of
deflation, annual inflation is positive, but low, at 0.8%. The
trade surplus was 35 billion francs ($36.2 billion) last year,
roughly 5% of Swiss GDP, led by its large surplus with the U.S.
After a dip, the Swiss economy recovered...
...and prices are rising, albeit at a modest pace.
"If you're Switzerland and you have fine-tuned manufacturing
that's hard to replicate, you can survive currency fluctuations,"
said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote
Bank.
Still, protecting the Swiss economy has been costly, with
foreign reserves rising in both euro and dollar terms
There is another plus: a supercharged franc made the already
rich Swiss even richer. Wealth per adult rose 130% to $537,600 from
2000 through mid-2017, according to a report from Credit Suisse
last year, and Switzerland "continues to lead the global
rankings."
"We note that a large part of the rise is associated with the
appreciation of the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar between
2001 and 2013," the report said.
Write to Brian Blackstone at brian.blackstone@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 20, 2018 05:44 ET (09:44 GMT)
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