Yellen Says She's Uncertain Weak Inflation Is Transitory
November 21 2017 - 8:34PM
Dow Jones News
By Harriet Torry
The Federal Reserve is monitoring inflation closely given
officials' uncertainty over whether the factors keeping it below
their 2% target will prove endemic, Chairwoman Janet Yellen said
Tuesday.
"We expect [inflation] to move back up over the next year or
two, but I will say I'm very uncertain about this," Ms. Yellen
said.
For much of this year, Ms. Yellen and other Fed officials said
the shortfall in inflation could be caused by transitory factors,
like a drop in pricing for wireless phone plans and subdued growth
in health-care prices. But more recently, they have questioned how
transitory the price weakness may be.
"My colleagues and I are not certain that it is transitory, and
we are monitoring inflation very closely," Ms. Yellen said at New
York University's Stern School of Business.
While slack in the labor market, a bout of low oil prices and
appreciation of the dollar held down inflation over the past few
years, "this year low inflation is surprising because we're at
essentially full employment," Ms. Yellen said. The jobless rate hit
4.1% in October, the lowest reading since December 2000.
As a result, Ms. Yellen, who plans to leave the central bank in
early February when her term as chairwoman ends, is "keeping an
open mind" about inflation.
"It may be that there is something more endemic or long-lasting
here that we need to pay attention to," she said in a discussion
with Mervyn King, the former governor of the Bank of England.
Ms. Yellen and her colleagues have been grappling with subdued
inflation for much of the year despite a growing economy and
vigorous labor market. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation
rose 1.6% in September from a year earlier. While that was the
strongest headline reading since April, core inflation, which
strips out volatile food and energy prices, was at a 1.3% annual
rate for the second straight month.
Ms. Yellen didn't comment on the immediate path of monetary
policy, although she said the economy is "reasonably close" to the
central bank's dual mandate of maximum employment and price
stability.
The Fed last raised rates in June to a range of between 1% and
1.25%. At their Sept. 19-20 policy meeting, they penciled in one
more quarter-percentage-point rate rise this year.
Write to Harriet Torry at harriet.torry@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 21, 2017 20:19 ET (01:19 GMT)
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