CBO Report on Health Bill: What It Is and Why It Matters -- Update
May 24 2017 - 6:25PM
Dow Jones News
By Stephanie Armour
What is the CBO report and why is it so important?
The Congressional Budget Office is a nonpartisan agency that
provides budget analysis on economic and budget decisions. Its
reports are now helping lawmakers evaluate how the Republican
health bills would affect the number of uninsured people, premiums
and the federal deficit. That last part is key: Because of the
complex budget process the Senate is using, the health overhaul
bills cannot increase the deficit beyond the 10-year budget
window.
Didn't the CBO already report on the Republican health plan?
Yes, it did -- back in March. That report found the House GOP
health plan would cut the federal deficit by $337 billion over a
decade, and would result in 24 million more uninsured people by
2026 compared with the Affordable Care Act. But since that report,
House Republicans changed their bill to attract more support. So
the CBO now must re-evaluate it, even though the House passed that
revised version without waiting for the CBO's report.
What impact does the report have?
Senators now working to craft their own bill to knock down most
of the ACA will likely rely on the CBO analysis to guide their own
plan. If it shows a lot of people would wind up uninsured under the
House bill, senators could seek ways to soften that effect. If it
says the House bill would lower premiums due to reduced
regulations, that could embolden Senate conservatives to insist on
deregulation in their bill. And either way, the report is likely to
supply fresh ammunition to Democrats who say millions could lose
care under any of the Republican plans.
Why is figuring this out so difficult?
The CBO staff has a tough task partly because the revised House
bill would let states get waivers from some ACA requirements. Those
states could let insurers charge higher premiums to people with
pre-existing health conditions who let their coverage lapse. Such
states also could roll back the ACA requirement that insurers
provide specific benefits. The tricky part: No one knows how many
states would seek the waivers. The waivers also could mean that
some people are covered by less-robust plans, and it is unclear
whether CBO will score that as reduced coverage.
What are the most important numbers to look at?
Under budget rules, the health bill must cut the federal deficit
(the House's first version did that to the tune of $337 billion),
so that is an important number. It is also important to look at how
much of the budget savings would come from reduced Medicaid
spending, because steep cuts mean more people without insurance.
That is another key figure: the increase in the uninsured compared
with leaving the ACA in place. The more uninsured, the harder it
may be for Republicans to sell their plan to the public. And
effects on premiums matter, since Senate GOP lawmakers have said
their main goal is to bring down premium costs.
Write to Stephanie Armour at stephanie.armour@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 24, 2017 18:10 ET (22:10 GMT)
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