Militant Islamist attacks climb from 171 in 2009 to 738 in 2015;
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb expands into West Africa to
challenge Islamic State
The number of militant Islamist attacks in Africa rose
dramatically between 2009 and 2015, according to new research
released by IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of
critical information and insight.
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Militant Islamist Group Attacks in 2009,
as recorded by IHS JTIC (Graphic: Business Wire)
In 2009, IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre recorded 171
militant Islamist attacks across Africa that caused 541 fatalities.
In 2015, there were 738 attacks, which resulted in 4,600
fatalities. Attacks have increased over 200 percent and fatalities
by more than 750 percent.
“We have seen a dramatic rise in the number of attacks carried
out by militant Islamist non-state armed groups across the African
continent,” said Matthew Henman, head of IHS Jane’s Terrorism and
Insurgency Centre (JTIC). “Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb, and Al-Shabaab were the most active groups, but there are
new trends emerging that could mean attacks will further
intensify.”
New analysis carried out by IHS JTIC indicates three main
militant trends evolving in the region:
- Collaboration between Boko Haram and
the Islamic State more significant than widely recognized;
- Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
competing with the Islamic State for territory and recruits;
and
- The continuing resilience of Al-Shabaab
in the face of growing territorial pressure from a broad array of
state adversaries.
Boko Haram – Islamic State’s influence more significant than
widely recognized
“The Islamic State has had a more significant impact on Boko
Haram than most people think,” Henman said.
Since Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State,
there has been a qualitative and quantitative increase in the use
of suicide bombing tactics in Nigeria and neighboring countries.
“The punitive nature of such violence and the calculatedly shocking
use of young females as suicide bombers echoed key tactical and
operational practices of the Islamic State,” Henman said.
But, notably, Boko Haram has shifted the focus of its media
operations since the pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State,
with an almost immediate professionalization of propaganda content
to match the output of the central group. IHS JTIC research shows
Boko Haram tailoring its messages towards a more international
audience. The spotlight has shifted away from a focus on Boko Haram
emir Abubakar Shekau to focusing primarily on attack videos and
refuting government claims. There has also been an emphasis on
Arabic over the local Hausa dialect.
“This shift in media operations is no small achievement,” Henman
said. “Boko Haram is commonly perceived as a unified, homogenous
entity, but it is in fact composed of multiple factions.” Boko
Haram’s largest faction, led by emir Shekau, was the one that
pledged allegiance to the Islamic State. There are indications that
the pledge, and the demand for unity by the Islamic State, has
driven a certain degree of rapprochement with one of the key
smaller factions, known most commonly as Ansaru.
“The pledge of allegiance from Boko Haram will likely prove
critical for the Islamic State in its push to project power and
influence as widely as possible,” Henman said. “There are multiple
indications that the Islamic State has created links between its
affiliates in Libya and West Africa as well as sought to exploit
longstanding smuggling routes through the Sahel between North and
West Africa.”
AQIM expansion into West Africa to challenge Islamic
State
A revitalized AQIM has indicated that it will not remain idle
and allow the Islamic State to expand its presence in its primary
region of operations. Currently there has been no indication of the
competition between the two groups turning violent against each
other, with a seeming willingness to escalate violence against a
common target set and bid to outdo the other.
“The increased competition between the Islamic State and AQIM
raises terrorism risks in West Africa and indicates that attack
numbers are unfortunately likely to rise in the six month outlook,”
Henman said. “There is also a growing risk of further attacks in
countries that have not previously been the target of militant
Islamist violence, particularly Senegal and Ghana.”
Since the French intervention into northern Mali in January 2013
AQIM has principally been focused on asymmetric operations against
the Malian and French security forces and MINUSMA peacekeeping
forces. However, since mid-2015 the group has exploited increased
operational space in northern Mali to expand its territorial reach
and has gone on the offensive.
AQIM launched several attacks at the end of 2015 and in early
2016, which highlighted its intention to act outside its
traditional strongholds in northern Mali. The first of these major
attacks occurred in November 2015, when the group attacked the
Radisson Blu Hotel in Bamako, Mali. The Bamako assault was followed
by an attack on the Cappuccino Café and Splendid Hotel in
Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, in January 2016. Most recently, in March
2016, the group claimed responsibility for an attack that killed 19
people in Grand Bassam, a popular seaside town in Côte d'Ivoire,
just outside Abidjan.
“The attacks mark a distinct change for AQIM from the period
between 2007 and the first half of 2015, when the group struggled
to carry out large-scale attacks, predominantly acted in northern
Mali, and rarely attracted significant media attention,” Henman
said. “During this period the group had suffered from numerous
defections and a strong counter-terrorism drive by Algerian and
French forces, which considerably reduced its operational
capacity.”
The change of strategy was also likely catalyzed by a renewed
alliance between AQIM and al-Murabitoun, including local commander
Mokhtar Belmokhtar, who had splintered from AQIM in 2012, but who
renewed his alliance with AQIM in late 2015. Belmokhtar has a
reputation for "spectacular" attacks and it was unsurprising, the
IHS analysis says, that his return to the fold was followed by
three of AQIM’s most significant operations for several years.
Al-Shabaab’s resilience and growing threat
Amid a growing international focus on the Islamic State and AQIM
operations in North and West Africa, the ongoing and expanding
threat posed by Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen in East Africa has
been under-appreciated. “Many people wrote off Al-Shabaab following
its expulsion from Mogadishu in 2011 and the subsequent launch of
Kenyan, Ethiopian, and AMISOM military incursions into Somalia,”
Henman said. “But, over the course of 2015 and 2016, the group has
been expanding capabilities and increasing the tempo of
attacks.”
Over the course of 2015 and early 2016, Al-Shabaab has
underlined its expanding capabilities in Somalia by attacking and
overrunning AMISOM peacekeeper bases on three separate occasions,
inflicting substantial casualties. The group has successfully
isolated key military and peacekeeping positions through southern
and central Somalia, enabling it to mass for such assaults and move
into territory vacated by AMISOM and local forces. Concurrently
Al-Shabaab has maintained a steady tempo of mass casualty attacks
against government and security force targets in the capital
Mogadishu, underlining the extent of its operational presence
therein.
About IHS Jane’s
(www.janes.com)
IHS Jane’s, part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), is the leading open
source information provider and conference organiser on defence,
international risk and national security to governments,
militaries, industries and academia around the globe. IHS is the
leading source of insight, analytics and expertise in critical
areas that shape today’s business landscape. IHS has been in
business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New
York Stock Exchange in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado,
USA, IHS is committed to sustainable, profitable growth and employs
nearly 9,000 people in 33 countries around the world.
IHS is a registered trademark of IHS Inc. All other company and
product names may be trademarks of their respective owners. © 2016
IHS Inc. All rights reserved.
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