Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) Quote

Contrary to your post, most company share valuations by analysts are based upon NPV calculations. I suspect that the current $40 analyst estimates that are now in place are using the NPV model.

Of course, there are assumptions in any valuation model, and I agree that non revenue companies are more difficult to formulate a valuation, nevertheless analyst need to begin somewhere and NPV valuation models are the most common.

The biggest assumption in the modeling that I put forward is the assumed EMA approval. Using the 80% probability of EMA approval, that I'm most comfortable with, that suggests an NPV of approx. $30 based upon the same EPS 5 year estimates.

One has to use some kind of modeling and NPV modeling makes the most sense to me.

https://www.anavex.com/investor-material
Works for me...?

Pretty convoluted link(s) to webcast.
Yes it appears Anavex.com has issues.
Somehow bypassing the main page works.

https://link.edgepilot.com/s/dd82a254/tsD9XzAOmkG8k7qIDGxPiw?u=https://wsw.com/webcast/cowen177/avxl/2042841

Correction: delay, dilute, and enrich yourself along the way at shareholders’ expense.

I'm hoping someday AVXL is an $8 stock again.

Those numbers don't look very relevant to Anavex because if the MAA is approved (presumably everything in your model depends on this event) then $1 and $2 and $5 are crazy low. And for pre-revenue biopharma, discount rates are usually far higher. But where everything is essentially dependent on a single event, this kind of modeling is not very useful.

More useful, IMO, is the value of 3-71 P2b readout and the MAA decision. The former is a big deal but we are not focused on it because of the much larger decision looming over it. Taken together, AVXL goes asymptotic which is why models and discount rates don't matter much (IMO, again.)

Delay and dilute - Misslings motto

But then in reality when the market looks at a company without any revenue and a small potential for getting revenue, it is very overvalued...

As posted last night,

The Net Present Value (NPV) at a discount rate of 5% for a company with an EPS in the next 5 years of $1, $2, $5, $12.50, and $25 is $36.96.

This is calculated by discounting each year's EPS back to its present value and then summing those present values.

Year 1: $1 / (1 + 0.05)^1 = $0.95
Year 2: $2 / (1 + 0.05)^2 = $1.81
Year 3: $5 / (1 + 0.05)^3 = $4.32
Year 4: $12.50 / (1 + 0.05)^4 = $10.27
Year 5: $25 / (1 + 0.05)^5 = $19.61

Sum of Present Values: $0.95 + $1.81 + $4.32 + $10.27 + $19.61 = $36.96

So yes, the current price of $7.90 is an extremely low valuation based upon the above modelling!

George that page does not work. Same as last evening.
Perhaps you call and see if you can get it fixed.

For Further Information:
Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Research & Business Development
Toll-free: 1-844-689-3939
Email: info@anavex.com

Investors:
Andrew J. Barwicki
Investor Relations
Tel: 516-662-9461
Email: andrew@barwicki.com

John k9uwa

Hi Bullet below works for me but anything else does NOT WORK. 7:45AM EST.

This still works. https://www.anavex.com/post/anavex-life-sciences-to-present-at-the-45th-annual-td-cowen-health-care-conference

but as soon as I click on the link on that page it does NOT WORK. Somebody better get off their butt and fix it or lose lots of readers.

This Sucks
John k9uwa

The Anavex webpage is now accessible and they have a link to today’s webcast

https://www.anavex.com/

Good luck and GOD bless,

4:00 am CST 3/3/2024, still not accessible.

Not worth a penny until you perform and pass the trials.
BLARCAMESINE - A2-73

- Rett Syndrome
- Fragile X Syndrome
- Infantile Spasm

ANAVEX 3-71 ( AF710B )

- Frontotemporal Dementia

This alone is worth Billions not recognized in the MC. imo

This link to Anavex should work.
https://www.anavex.com/newsroom

For some reason the Anavex.com does not work. Guess our really great webmaster broke it.

This should work as well. And it will get you to the click here to listen to the Monday Morning presentation.
https://www.anavex.com/newsroom[url][/url][tag]https://www.anavex.com/newsroom[/tag]

John k9uwa

LISTEN FOR NEWS TODAY Monday Anavex Life Sciences’s will present at the 45th Annual TD Cowen Health Care Conference, March 3-5, 2025. Christopher U Missling, PhD, President & Chief Executive Officer will present the Company in a session scheduled at 9:50 AM (ET) on Monday, March 3rd, 2025, at the Boston Marriott Copley Place in Boston, MA.

A live audio webcast will be accessible through the Investors section of the Company’s website at www.anavex.com. An archived edition of the session will be available later that day.

https://www.anavex.com/post/anavex-life-sciences-to-present-at-the-45th-annual-td-cowen-health-care-conference

Good luck and GOD bless,

Anavex Life Sciences Orphan drug designation by FDA on Therapeutic Candidates: Website working fine.

BLARCAMESINE - A2-73

- Rett Syndrome
- Fragile X Syndrome
- Infantile Spasm

ANAVEX 3-71 ( AF710B )

- Frontotemporal Dementia

This alone is worth Billions not recognized in the MC. imo


https://www.anavex.com/therapeutic-candidates

I can’t get it to open.

it's up now

10PM EST Website is down. Again. or perhaps it hasn't been back up??

John k9uwa

Highly doubt it

Remember that Anavex is going to also spend hundreds of millions or more trying to advance A371, Rett, PDD, and possibly a preventative trial, too.

Further investment in trials will not affect stock price. AMZN had market cap in the tens of billions before even turning a profit due to high R&D

The FDA was that corrupt agency controlled by big pharma, now attempts to clean the FDA out are the problem.
So bad then and bad now. Geez.
Look, they will still be at work approving drugs.
The whole conversation is borderline OT.

The website is working fine—it still has the same old crappy content and corporate presentation. Nothing has changed.

That's why sitting for years on a PD trial was dumb
That's the issue - nothing close to fall back to.

Was the only option left after Rett fiasco:

Anavex's prioritizing filing an MAA with EMA over an NDA

They didnt prioritize anything. The got lucky the EMA was interested in a cheap alz treatment and suggested they apply.

Glacial Chris would not have done it, he was still chasing the rare disease chimera.

He and we got lucky.

YES, that is quite odd. Check the website later tonight and just prior to 10:00 AM EST tomorrow!!!

Good luck and GOD bless,

As we get older we all experience a wide variety of health problems. Blarcamesine and Anavex 3-71 (a stronger, safer Blarcamesine?) will affect the entire body for the good. Minimal to zero bad side effects and generally improved health is what I expect. The preventive health benefits are unprecedented IMO!

Does anyone find it odd that I can’t access the Anavex website? Anyone else have this issue? Thanks

Maybe an update on the Rett OLE/compassionate use program, which shows as “on-going” in their Jan. ‘25 corporate presentation.

Cut patient count or cost per patient in half still gives us $1,650 a share.

Let's estimate profitability as follows:

Year 1 - $80 million, $1.00 eps x 15 multiple = $15.00
Year 2 - $160 million, $2.00 eps x 20 multiple = $40.00
Year 3 - $400 million, $5.00 eps x 25 multiple = $125.00
Year 4 - $ 1,000 million, $12.50 eps x 25 multiple = $312.50
Year 5 - $ 2,000 million, $25.00 eps x 25 multiple = $625.00

PMV (Present Market Value) with a discount rate of 5% is much, much higher than the current $7.90!

Is it possible that he could just completely shock us tomorrow and actually say something with serious significance for this stock so someone on Wall Street will pay attention?

If brain shrinkage, which I believe we all experience after a certain age, were identified as a disease, we would be approved by now. Perhaps it should be, it no doubt diminishes all of us slightly, but to date it's not.

The question in the future may be, shouldn't we all be on it, with or without any symptom or disease.

Gary

Let’s hope Missling tomorrow morning will bring up at least PD trial.

We know that blarcamesine helps maintain the health of the brain. But what about other vital organs?

I'd like to take it for my brain as well as cardiac and glaucoma.

If only Glacial Chris would get some trials moving.

The conference tomorrow will be a canned presentation, but watch for any brief status update on the 3-71 schizo trial enrollment.

TREATMENT OF CARDIAC DYSFUNCTION

How about a trial for this new UNrare disease?

get the damn PD trial going.

get this cardiac trial going

Do something already.

Once Again, Doing an AVXL Spreadsheet
With 80 million shares that is ~$220 per share.
With a conservative P/E of 15/1
that gives us a share price of ~$3,300
Well, an AVXL share price of $3,300 will make most who have any sort of AVXL position quite wealthy. When I multiply my number of shares times $3,300 I’m wealthy by many millions of dollars.

Could the AVXL share price actually reach $3,300? For private sport, run and manipulate the numbers; which will include the following.

When I do my anticipated eventual share prices, I start with an eventual AVXL share count of 100 million. Right now, Anavex has about 85.06 million shares being owned and traded. My 100 million datum presumes that about another 15 million new shares will be sold by the company before it has any appreciable revenues from drug sales. For calculation, 100 million is convenient, a digit 1 followed by eight zeros.

Then, probably the most significant calculation, will be to estimate, globally, the number of patients that will be treated with Anavex drugs each year. You can do a web search for such info. On the web, ask “How many people have _____?” Make the query for each disease Anavex is targeting, which (I believe) would be the following:

1. Alzheimer’s disease.
2. Parkinson’s disease.
3. Schizophrenia.
4. Rett Syndrome.
5. Cardiac Arrythymias.
6. Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.
7. Anti-aging Prophylaxis
(In the future, perhaps others.)

Put the projected patient numbers (Anavex drug sales clients) on separate, disease-labeled lines on a spreadsheet.

Then — the biggest but most significant projection — presume that an Anavex drug becomes the SOC, the Standard of Care drug for each disease or condition. Presume, say, that Anavex drugs will be used to treat 66% of all with each disease or condition.

Then, on the next spreadsheet line, estimate each patient’s daily cost for the Anavex drug treating his or her disease. In my calculations, I make Anavex drugs really cheap; $5 per day; an annual cost of $1825 a year.

In the next line, in the cells below, multiply the estimated annual drug cost of the disease times the projected number of treated patients. For example, if Alzheimer’s disease will have blarcamesine as the global standard of care drug, given to everyone diagnosed with the disease, if there will be, globally, 25 million Alzheimer’s patients being treated with blarcamesine, Anavex’s annual revenues would be 25,000,000 x $1825; which is from these global Alzheimer’s estimations $45,625,000,000; 45.625 billion dollars of corporate revenues each year.

Make those estimations for all of the listed diseases and conditions.

Then, estimate how much of all of that will drop down as after-costs corporate profits, which will be distributed out to shareholders each year. Divide that giant earnings number by the number of outstanding shares, 100 million.

Then, two important estimations or conjectures. With the calculated total annual dividend number, estimate the price-to-earnings ratio and the estimated the share price.

Finally, multiply the size of your AVXL holding by the estimated share price, to show the value of your AVXL position, and multiply your AVXL position by the estimated share price, to see the conjectured annual dividends amount you will receive.

Lots and lots of zeros in these calculations. Big numbers. Big diseases, for which Anavex may well provide the SOC, preferred therapies. As I’ve contended for many years, if Anavex gets to treat only a few of the seven listed diseases or conditions, it will be a major pharmaceutical. I think at least three of the listed disease targets are lock-ons. But, a reasonably good chance Anavex drugs will be able to treat most or all of the seven. And, there may well be more, in the future.

I'm just pondering the possibilities.

If A3-71 produced virtually no side effects up to a certain dosage do you run a trial at that max dosage or do you up it a bit and tolerate A2-73ish symptoms and get a more powerful result?

And if there truly were no side effects as falconer has suggested, shouldn't every drug on the planet be paired with A3-71 as I assume all drugs would work better and perhaps even at a lower dosage if the patient's body is in homeostasis?

And for that matter, doesn't that same logic apply to A2-73?

Dr.Missling has not been specific. He has merely stated that they would expect the EMA decision in 2025...followed by UK,Canadian and Australian applications in 2025. My understanding is that these applications usually take about 6 months until approvals. How the potentially huge Asian market would be handled has not been discussed to my knowledge. And how long until there is a US approval? Who knows?
The EMA approval would start the whole new ballgame! Everyone has their own definition of "soon". I think in this case "soon" for me means "this calendar year'! That would please me! Biotechs take time!

Addressed a comment stating categorically
NO FURTHER TRIAL.
I stated what I consider the three realistic outcomes.
I find each plausible and variously trade around Anavex execution.
I consider THAT a difference.

Could you explain "soon"?  Have they started applications for approval in those countries?  If they wait until after EMA decision, I doubt we could describe it as soon

Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (NASDAQ:AVXL) Is Expected To Breakeven In The Near Future

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anavex-life-sciences-corp-nasdaq-125024362.html

Good luck and GOD bless,

With sales in UK, Canada , Australia and Asia following soon after Europe...and US (whenever) the worldwide share price would be impressive!

Approval with an additional trial required is still approval. Most drugs have some degree of a P4 trial. The range of requirements for that P4 vary widely. They vary from a full on, large N trial, to enhanced monitoring of patient complaints and everything in between.

I think your nuance is without a difference. Blarcamesine will be approved or it won't. The financial impact will be approximately the same whether a P4 is required or not.

If nothing else, dose in the evening.

I had read a few years back that in the UK if you got cataracts they would only fix one eye as money was tight and you could still function.
If I could get word to all the bean counters in Europe we'd be approved yesterday.

I don't think that our chance of EMA approval is bullxxxx at all. Nor do I think that that approval is a given from the existing AD trials data for A2-73. We have seen before with the EXCELLENCE trial outcome that being too categoric on either side of the equation is not a sensible approach.

Operating costs will be way above $2 billion.

Figure Anavex gets .25 per pill sold, excluding its operating costs. I’d expect Anavex to net around .10-.20 after all costs are tallied. Remember that Anavex is going to also spend hundreds of millions or more trying to advance A371, Rett, PDD, and possibly a preventative trial, too.

A EU conservative 4 million patients at a conservative $5,000 per year is still a gross of $20 billion.

Let Anavex go alone without giving away a big chunk to a BP.

What are cost of product, distribution and marketing?
Marketing will be word of mouth almost immediately among the AD community and doctors.
Distribution of pills as simple as aspirin.
A while back someone quoted Missling as saying cost of manufacturing 60 cents a pill.
Missling says the company already has ample supply on hand ready to go.

So let’s say 2 billion overhead at most in total for a net of $18 billion a year.

With 80 million shares that is ~$220 per share.
With a conservative P/E of 15/1
that gives us a share price of ~$3,300

Cut patient count or cost per patient in half still gives us $1,650 a share. 🤷‍♂️