Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) Quote

I have seen whales buy enormous quantities of just this kind of stock, on the open market, in just a few days, driving the price very high and very quickly. I have seen it with far more risk than AVXL poses after last weeks news. That news might inspire a buyout... and/or a sharp SP rise might give larger pharmas the incentive to make a decision. Nothing like a whale as bait.

Sorry about all the edits. That is me. Don't bother to read my stuff until the clock expires!

There will be no bids for Anavex for at least 8 months and only then if 3-71 results are off the hook (but the trial is very small so I don't think that will do it) - more likey not for 13+ months after EMA decision.

So you think there will be a bid for the company?

They should fear independent Whales. Risk just dropped by a huge margin on a potentially huge multiple stock with a product that they many have personal interest in. I have seen it before. Some whales may play with baby seals, but generally whales don't play ball. They don't have to.

They should fear independent Whales. Risk just dropped by a huge margin. I have seen it before.

Gotta give those darn shorts credit, they aren't afraid of anything

According to chat gpt - Elsevier (the new JPAD publisher from 1/1/25) has around 5-10 times the reach that Serdi (the previous JPAD publisher) had. Meaning JPAD will likely grow in visibility a lot after the move.

Steady, do you have any Jan. 17th call options left?

I don't know, of course. Historically he exercises and sells only enough to pay the taxes and retains the rest If I were a betting man (and I guess I am because I am here) then I bet he will do the same this year.

Let your winners run probably has
made some TSLA or BTC owners mad at themselves.

That was the question….
Will he retain the shares.
I believe I posited the difference should he not.
Did I say I knew or assume which?
You seem to know.

Yes,Steve, I'm looking at the same targets, but also Elliott Wave pattern, and any extreme sell down targets. Trying to sense the strength of selling forces. Does it include dilution? Options expiration? Whatever it is... we have targets to see and momentum to evaluate . 11.50 is a 50% Fib retrace and a left shoulder zone. 10.75 is a 62% Fib. 10.40 is a left shoulder zone and a 200 Ma. target. 10 is a target for the larger chart and may be ok, as a critical zone to maintain the bullish pattern, but also is a win for the shorts and manipulators to weaken bullish momentum. Into the 9's is a big win for the old trading shorting game, still showing power even against the new impending success.

Tom:
Now we have 4 guesses.....10.18, 10.40, 10.50, 10.80....yesterday I was convinced that the short sellers were in trouble, now it's us...the spurt we had from appx 8.50 carried to appx 14.50....6 points.... from 14.50 down to appx 11.00 is 3.50....so I would now say .618 retrace would be, I think 3.71 apppx.....that comes to 10.79 which close to Leo's guess, I'm lower based on breakout level.

Maybe he used his math?

Here we go... today's leg downward was easy to visualize on the chart. Coming off a sideways (Wave 4) subwave...resistance marked at 12.35, overhead resistance was the zone 12.25 to 13.25 to watch. I had marked the 12.50 area, and the Elliott Wave pattern was anticipating another drop in a completed pullback. We got the drop today to the 11 target. Previous pivot support is here around 10.80, but the zone could include 10.00 in play as a target.
Right here at 11 is a balance point I would call a pivotal clue, like a barometer, that might tell us which force is strongest now, the wall street bleeding down game, or the bullish momentum that compells a continuing trend change that marks a new reality for this investment, public interest, embracing bullish success, and the weakening of the old wall street trading shorting, price abusing game we have seen AVXL suffer for 10 years. At some point, that game has to stop. Right now is one of those moments that could show whether the price manipulators and shorts are still able to sell AVXL down, and erase huge rallies, ... I think the balance point is here, around 11.00, maybe 10.40 as a critical support. IF AVXL holds in this zone and begins another strong surge and climb, back to 14 and onward to 16/18/20... then we might have won the battle now. But, conversely, IF we see the sell down continue now, below 10, into the 9's... then that might mean the price controllers are still tossing the abused AVXL rag doll around as they please.despite the impending success. I would find that disappointing. And it also suggests that AVXL remains , right to the very end, a trading stock...as well as an investment. If it rallies way up, and they can still sell it all the way down again...it's a trading stock.as well as investment.
Watch the price action this week what it does here, around 11.00/10.50 for clues, which
force is strongest in this key battle zone. Resistance looks like 11.50/12.00/12.50 now.

Interesting. This is one style, Eh?
It would have been pretty crazy not to.
Or, as an alternative, folks read and assimilate all the information they like, and trade or hold or ? however they choose without jonesing or judgement perhaps?
Who am I to say.

Good to hear from you, Amor. We go back a long ways to ASM 2016... and finally now we're on the official countdown to EMA approval. Perhaps we meet there again, either, this coming year or next? Glad to hear that you, your family and business are doing well. Cheers!

Maybe the low end of the Bollinger Band will help? hits around $10.50 which is where the breakout occurred...price is nearing Leo's $10.80 and my $10.50....but not Old Mystic's $10.18 model yet.....maybe we are close? I'm hiding in the basement.....ha ha

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=avxl&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=4%2F12%2F2018&freq=8&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=55550&uf=8&lf=2&lf2=8&lf3=4&type=4&style=350&size=4&x=21&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

Imposter looking to deploy dry powder😂

Earnings Estimate Revisions for Anavex Life Sciences
This biopharmaceutical company is expected to earn -$0.73 per share for the fiscal year ending September 2025, which represents a year-over-year change of -40.4%.

Analysts have been steadily raising their estimates for Anavex Life Sciences. Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company has increased 8.8%.

Bottom Line
Unlike the overly optimistic Wall Street analysts whose rating systems tend to be weighted toward favorable recommendations, the Zacks rating system maintains an equal proportion of 'buy' and 'sell' ratings for its entire universe of more than 4000 stocks at any point in time. Irrespective of market conditions, only the top 5% of the Zacks-covered stocks get a 'Strong Buy' rating and the next 15% get a 'Buy' rating. So, the placement of a stock in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks indicates its superior earnings estimate revision feature, making it a solid candidate for producing market-beating returns in the near term.

You can learn more about the Zacks Rank here >>>

The upgrade of Anavex Life Sciences to a Zacks Rank #2 positions it in the top 20% of the Zacks-covered stocks in terms of estimate revisions, implying that the stock might

AVXL Model 10.17 by 01/06/25
Daily: https://invst.ly/187-f3
Hourly: https://invst.ly/187-i9

thx for the answer.

No chance of that.

This is just not the same company it was 3 weeks ago.

100%--I am using today's pull back in price to ramp up my position in AVXL.

For using dry powder to buy cheaper and increase risk exposure in the same stock.

Why not? How long have you been in this stock? Long enough to know it falls apart for no reason at anytime.

Pfizer is going to need a blockbuster drug to prevent it from being sued to bankruptcy.

Someone knows something?

Why is SP down today-now? 12/30/2024-TIA...seriously?

Opportunities for what?

I guess we're headed back to the 10's. Nothing ever surprises me with this stock but you'd really think a 90% chance of approval would be worth a lot more than 1 billion dollars.

Another slightly interesting 'like' on the Anavex linkedin EMA validation post was this guy - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaron-deves/

Whilst he has taken on less senior roles in recent years, between Oct 2009 and March 2013 he was the 'Global Commercial Lead, Alzheimers' disease' for Pfizer.

Wow! Well spotted - kudos.

Probably about a year or less of opportunities depending on clock stop outcomes.

Wow. That is almost profound.There are still opportunities until there perhaps isn't anymore.

Bottomline: He is able to exercise at any time before April 2nd should he know for certain this is worthwhile to do even with a pending deal or right before an effective deal he cannot be sued for using inside information; it's entirely LEGAL. He's vested.

I think an earlier exercise is very possible assuming some sort of "definitive arrangement". DEFINITIVE is the key word.

Your thought of support around 10.80 is just as good as mine (10.50)....👍️

Hoskuld:

Yes, thanks!

I think your experience is extremely valuable and the recent price push UP signals that things have indeed changed!

Well, it isn't bad, is it? If the compensation is retained in the form of shares then that would seem to be a net positive and align the CEO with shareholder outcomes to an even greater extent.

It would have been pretty crazy not to.
Some will trade in and out for the chance of a gain here or there.
There are still opportunities until there perhaps isn't anymore.

Some will trade in and out for the chance of a gain here or there. With the fundamentals being what they are and a 170% share price increase over these past 6 months some might see this as a reasonable period to hold long.
To each their own. Whatever works.

More than a casual understanding of Tax consequences,
but even without specific knowledge of his situation
do you pay the taxes on a higher SP or await a slippage in that
price and retain more shares for future appreciation (hopefully)
as it requires fewer shares to be sold to "wash" the exercise?

Timing that before expiration may be interesting to follow.
Early on slippage would indicate to ME that he will retain
at least the bulk of the net shares. I would hope that retrace remains near
10.80, but that is just my target on a bounce with volume for re entry.

THAT would be bullish.

Those who assign an indication of confidence.
There are many here if you even casually observe.

Sab, IMO the whole game has changed now: the submission of the MAA has now seen Anavex traverse the whole gamut from lab to application - only commercialization remains. The MAA was accepted, too, which is a big deal (I know some don't think this but that is OK.) The next 2 weeks will see some information released which will be very helpful. WilliamMunny thinks maybe we get some tier 1 institutional sell-side coverage, too. And in 5-6 months we may get the P2 3-71 results. And we should see the P3 PD trial start sooner than that.

IMO, these trials are a bigger deal now because the company has demonstrated that they can file an MAA or NDA - that it WILL file these applications. The company has gone from being early stage to being a real contender.

This is just not the same company it was 3 weeks ago.

Just imagine where the price of $AVXL would have been today had the chances of approval not gone from 83% to over 90% approval after the CHMP acceptance of the MAA.

I agree he would be foolish to let this happen since it is compensation which would be thrown to the wind, but I still believe he "might exercise before expiration" which would really "surprise the market" and build confidence before a deal is closed; note he would not be sued for insider information either! Have you thought about that?

Of course it is compensation - who would interpret it as anything else?

Not the way I see it, Jimbo50...but not quite as confident as you seem to be!....Support normally IS important especially when the price pulls back to a dynamic breakout! Sadly most here don't even consider the history of what has been around price discovery since the 17th Century.

Agreed he will exercise. Dumb to let expire at current SP.
However, to consider it as anything other than compensation
is a mistake. Particularly those who portray it as uber confidence
proceeding forward. Anything less than retaining ALL not required
to pay the taxes is actually negative.
He may well benefit twice through compensation AND appreciation.

Just check the emojis and you will identify those with NO CLUE.

There is no institutional support .. all traders and retail trying to trade and make income .. so price has no support after a good day .. ALWAYS BEEN LIKE THIS ..

Leo:
All of the next several years he has a lot more priced very cheap, look at the Proxy notice which lists them all! If successful, he will pay those taxes without much pain.

BTW, we do have a negative divergence on the RSI which is seen on the daily...that's a warning and a slap in my face for now...darn it!

I prefer a more focused interpretation of Cogito.
Analysis might show less frequent here than accepted.

Although today is bad enough with Friday down and today down (unusual), my thinking here is that the breakout above $10.50 is the most reasonable support...quite surprised that the move up to $14.45 has experienced quite a sizable drop in price...let's see if Santa forgot something this year. December 31st, close early.....yipeeee!