SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) Options

Trump Tax cuts will expire and if Kamal Harris wins the election, i expect a big drop in stock prices

not to mention a lot more geopolitical risk within 3-6 months after the election

it wont be hard for smart money to sell stocks at record highs

BARRONS talking about DOW 50,000, that's definitely a SELL SIGNAL if i ever saw one

CUTS ARE SIMPLY NOISE !! IT IS THE FED'S POLICY TO KEEP THIS MARKET UP FOR MANY
REASONS. CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM !!! THEY CANN'T AFFORD A 20 OR 30% DROP IN THIS MARKET.
THAT WILL WEAKEN THE WHOLE HIGLY LEVERAGED FINACIAL MARKET AND THE TRILLIONS
IN DERIVATIVES THAT NOBODY TALKS ABOUT.

a ton of inflation is hiding in the US STOCK MARKET
Can you please explain this?


rates are never going under 3% again
The roads are littered with talk of the absolute. Never and endless always (see what I did there?) have a tendency to be proven wrong.

there will be only one more cut in 2024 at most and it wont be 50

Key Points
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate reduction.

The jumbo cut “could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate,” she said in remarks to a bankers’ group in Kentucky.

a ton of inflation is hiding in the US STOCK MARKET

cutting rates at ATH in the stock market is very bad for inflation going forward

valuations are peaking and the stock market has already priced in 200 bips worth of cuts through 2025

rates are never going under 3% again

you'll see

ALL IN.....HAVE NO FEAR.....THE FED IS HERE AND THE PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM IS ALWAYS
READY TO RESCUE THE MARKET. THE FED SIMPLY WILL NOT ALLOW THIS MARKET TO GO DOWN !!!
AND YOU CAN TAKE THAT TO THE BANK

I was more poking fun at the choice of words.
Ending the endless.

Did you see the consumer confidence number? Inflation and employment are mandates for the fed. CPI was down almost 31% yoy at the end of August 2024. Fed royalty has come out in numbers saying more cuts on the way. FOMC median Dots is at 3.375 at the end of 2025 and 4.375 at the end of 2024. Target is 5.0 today which is about average (4.94) going back to the 70's. Lots of wiggle room.

U-3 unemployment rate was 4.2 at the end of August up from 3.7 at the beginning of the year. If the revision is anything like last month, who knows?

“Even after the 50 basis-point cut, I believe the overall stance of monetary policy remains tight,” Kashkari wrote.

Kashkari expects future cuts to be smaller than the one from earlier this month. “I was comfortable taking a larger first step, and then as we go forward, I expect, on balance, we will probably take smaller steps unless the data changes materially,” he told CNBC Monday morning.

Kashkari appears to be telegraphing to investors that the Fed is planning to cut rates by 25 basis points, unless the job market worsens, according to Jeffrey Roach chief economist at LPL Financial. “FOMC members are likely prepping investors for a steady pace of cuts for the next several meetings,” he said in an email to Fortune.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/top-fed-official-calls-for-further-interest-rate-cuts-focus-on-labor-market/ar-AA1r46hW?ocid=BingNewsSerp

The switch to winter gas in September usually means lower prices at the pump as well. No stagflation here. In fact, I see more and more signs of a relatively soft landing. Who knows, it may be the beginning of the beginningless.

There's double digit trillions buying and ready to buy more. China is starting to unleash a huge amount of funds. China is going to run up, and us is going to play catch up. Despite the ban, they have 55% mining hashrate. Think the US should start chomping on that, support run, and help to become #1.

Higher inflation I agree with pool. Stagflation is the mortal enemy of the federal reserve, can’t print or QE or whatever this dilution is….

Hyperinflation. What's gonna happen to prices when China unleashes their massive stimulus. Prices are already going back up.

STAGFLATION is coming

oil rising in september is bad for the Fed's inflation goals

if OIL has bottomed and many other commodities priced in US dollars are rising,

then rate cuts are already close to being over

endless pump will end
How does something that is endless end?

Probably, but I doubt it.

CAT up $16 distorting the DOW

HD up $5

always pay attention to outsized moves

this rally is about to die

WAR in middle east is inflationary

the endless pump will end one day and people will have no clue that it was the top

Thursday Sept 19




Next day


Tues. Sept 24 - Pre mkt





Thursday Sept 19



Monday 23rd

Spy feels tired to me. Perhaps down on Tuesday?

Sick

~edit bought 9/25 $578c @.04c

~bought 9/24 $578c @.04c

Out 569P .24!

Wagg 569P .24 ?

Quick checking in thank you for all you do and you posts and sharing.

Closed 570C .20!

Vix 15.87 still Boss ?

SPX 5 min Wedge---B/O R1 5720-----Break down Fib at 5703 ? Vix Pivot at 15.87 still Boss !!

Wagged sum 570C .22 ? Lets see! Gotta do in & Out today !

Charts: SPX 15, 30 & 60 min on Sell ?? ( longer term pressure )

Vix 2 min Apex will decide ??----Play it the same as the Vix Flipper--same set up !---tight stop---lower volitility !---not as good as Friday !!

Vix Pivot 15.87!---Line in da sand for today !!

Inside Day! ( So Far) ---Vix 2 min Falling Triangle !------Watch U CCI divergence on 2 min Vix---For Triangle B/Down of B/O----Could go either way !!

Looking higher?

Vix 2 min Fallng Triangle ---Base Pivot at 15.87 !

Closed 568P .56!

Ridin 568P .48 ?--Off the Pivot ?

A Website User Volume INDICATOR would be a helpful tool

Vix Pivot: 15.87 ?

market toppy/fully valued here

risk is now to the downside

Pivot Calcs: SPX Pivot--5697----R1--5720----R2--5738-----S1--5679----S2--5656-----SPY Pivot --567----R1--569----R2--571-----S1--566----S2--563 !

Closed 569P 1.06 ! Vix Flipper!----Take it !! Tks Boys !! Close Double !!

Sold 1/2 569P ,92!

There they go!

Try sum 569P .52 ?

PPT's applying the pressure!

~bought some 9/24 $577 @.08c… held down all day

Nice Pivot fade back to Da 5 min Red line !!

Out 567P .92! Daily Double + Take It !!

Wagg 567P .33?

Out 567C 1.82 at the SPX Pivot ! Vix trying to Reverse ?---Missed LOD---got a good chunk of it !----PPT in action today !!

See post this replies to (last sentance)
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Bitcoins' 64,000 Resistance

Next Vix 1/2 Pivot 15.66 then S2--15.48 ?