SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) Quote

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 12, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 278.2k, down 21.8k.



Three weeks ago, in a shooting star week, gold printed $2,709 intraday before heading lower. It has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, the yellow metal enjoyed one after another breakout.

Three weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

This week, after coming under pressure in the first three sessions, bids showed up Thursday at $2,610s, with an intraday low of $2,619, ending the week up 0.3 percent to $2,676/ounce and forming a weekly dragonfly doji. Having defended the first layer of support, gold bugs deserve the benefit of the doubt in the sessions ahead.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26763 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26724 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 26678. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23386 and 27582. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of September 23rd has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of July 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

DiscoverGold

Inflation numbers are up https://investorshub.advfn.com/NASDAQ-Composite-Index-COMP-942 $GLD

Bank of America Predicts $35 Silver $GLD

$GLD $1.1 Million Calls
By: Cheddar Flow | October 8, 2024

• Large Million+ $AAPL & $GLD Calls

These expire in 3-5 weeks and are net bullish



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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 5, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 1, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 299.9k, down 15.5k.



This was a week in which gold bugs had an excellent opportunity to rally, as the tensions between Israel and Iran went up a few notches. Gold ticked $2,695 intraday Tuesday and that was it. By Friday, the metal was essentially unchanged for the week at $2,668/ounce.

Gold is ready for a breather. It has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. On September 26, it reached a fresh all-time high of $2,709; this was a week in which a weekly shooting star showed up.

There is plenty of support underneath. A couple of weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, the yellow metal broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

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Gold nearing a +1.5 year breakout relative to the S&P 500, will the outperformance continue?
By: TrendSpider | October 5, 2024

• Gold nearing a +1.5 year breakout relative to the S&P 500, will the outperformance continue?

$GLD +28.46% YTD
$SPY +21.23% YTD



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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 5, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26678 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26653 and overhead resistance forming above at 26947. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 16 weeks reaching a high during the week of September 23rd at 26386. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 2.307% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 26462 which still remains 14.84% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23206 and 27368. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 23rd has exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

DiscoverGold

Gold Price Surge: What Goldman Sachs' $2,900 Forecast Means for Investors
By: Karl Montevirgen | October 4, 2024

• Goldman Sachs just raised their price target for gold to $2,900 an ounce.
• Goldman Sachs' price target roughly equals $280 in SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD).
• GLD could have more room to run.

Here's the issue with gold: it's difficult to find as much info on it as stocks. For many investors, the buzz around Costco's (COST) gold sales put gold back on the mainstream radar. But that won't tell you if it's still a smart buy or what price you should pay for it.

This is where technical analysis comes in—it examines things from a clearer, more objective perspective.

In a previous article, I covered gold projections using SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) as a proxy. If you were even semi-bullish on gold, I hope you followed along, as intermediate-term targets were hit, along with an added bonus of a short-term trade.

Let's take a look.


CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF GLD. The price bars after the orange arrow is what happened after the September 17 article on GLD.
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In a nutshell, here's what happened:

• The orange arrow pointing at the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension is where the last article left off.
• The 138.20% Fib target was also reached, and GLD appears to be moving toward the 161.80% target.

The daily chart also pointed out a solid entry point, and now you can see the before and after results laid out clearly.


CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF GLD. The green vertical line denotes the before/after in relation to the September 17 article.
Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Take a look at everything to the right of the green vertical line:

• As mentioned in the last article, the 50% level at the bottom of the 2nd Quadrant Line marks a strong entry point. The magenta circle highlights the bounce, as anticipated.
• As price reached the 138.20% Fib extension target of $242.50, there was yet another short-term trading opportunity that occurred—a measured move of 5.2% from the bounce to just under $247.

Can GLD Hit the 161.80% Fib Extension Target Above $250?

Although analyst targets are varied, Goldman Sachs just upped its gold target to $2,900 an ounce, but it's a long game. If you're looking at GLD, that would mean a potential price of $280, and Goldman is aiming for early 2025. So expect some bumps along the way, with pullbacks likely. Keeping an eye on the global and economic factors pushing gold is key if you're in this for the long haul.

Central banks are also playing a big role in the gold market. In 2024, they scooped up 290 metric tons of gold in just the first quarter—the biggest quarterly haul in over 20 years. With no signs of slowing down, central banks are keeping gold demand strong and steady, setting the stage for its long-term growth.

Closing Bell

So let's wrap it up. There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on gold. If you're eyeing GLD, keep tracking those Fib targets, but don't forget that the ride could be bumpy. You will have to redraw a new set of Quadrant Lines and measure both the pullbacks and extensions. You may also find a few more shorter-term trades in the process. While global factors may shake things up along the way, you've got the tools to take advantage of the situation, no matter which direction GLD takes.

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Gold $GLD - So far maintaining its grip on the $2650 Level
By: Sahara | October 3, 2024

• $GOLD $GLD - So far maintaining its grip on the $2650 Level.

Holding that Daily 12/MA (Mustard)...



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Gold Next Leg $2,900 https://investorshub.advfn.com/SPDR-Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average-ETF-DIA-30212 $GLD

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | September 28, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 315.4k, up 5.3k.



Gold rallied another 0.8 percent this week to $2,668/ounce but not before raising a caution flag. It touched $2,697 intraday Thursday before profit-taking began.

Last week, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out Friday; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. The metal has experienced a sustained rally from $2,305 this June, including an August breakout at $2,440s-50s after more than three months of sideways action.

This week’s shooting star candle probably is a warning that gold is ready for a breather. Immediate support lies at $2,610s, followed by $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.

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Gold Declines After Record High, Bearish Reversal in Process
By: Bruce Powers | September 27, 2024

• After reaching a new high of 2,686, gold faces a bearish reversal, with upcoming support levels critical in determining if the bull rally will continue.

Gold triggered a daily bearish reversal on Friday, following a new record high of 2,686 reached Thursday. There was a confluence of several rising ABCD targets from the 2,660 to 2,675 price zone. Notice that yesterday closed just below the 2,675-level following a breakout above that price level earlier in the session.

The decline today was clear as gold will likely end with a full red candle and daily close near the lows of the session. Moreover, the weekly chart will likely confirm weakness with a weekly close in the lower half of the week’s trading range. The middle of the range is 2,650. This sets up a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern.



Two Key Support Levels at 20-Day and 50-Day MAs

A drop below today’s low of 2,643 currently, will trigger a bearish continuation of today’s decline. Two key levels to help assess the health of the uptrend are identified first by the 20-Day MA, now at 2,568, and then the 50-Day MA, currently at 2,498. In each case, the moving average line has converged with the relative uptrend line, that also marks potential support.

On the way down gold may first encounter support around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2,633. A sustainable upside reversal from that price level would be a stronger indication of strength than a decline to lower levels. The next lower level to watch for support is the 50% retracement at 2,616, together with this week’s low of 2,614.

Previous High and 61.8% Retracement Point to 2,600

Nonetheless, once a market rises through a breakout level it may eventually pullback to test prior resistance as support. For gold that price level would be the previous trend high of 2,600 combined with potential support of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that sits at the same price. Below there is the 20-Day MA and rising trendline.

In addition to today’s bearish price action the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator looks to be recovering from overbought as it is about to fall below the 70 overbought level. This would be supportive of a bearish continuation in the short-term. If gold stays above the 20-Day MA during a retracement, the potential remains for an eventually continuation of the bull rally for gold.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26681 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market has been rising for 10 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27087 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 24038. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 25704.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26510 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27087 to 26386. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27087. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 26839 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 25445 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 21 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

DiscoverGold

“Our expectation that the silver market will remain in deficit over the coming years implies continuous declines in above-ground inventories, which should help fundamentally underpin prices as well as act as a tailwind for investor interest.” $GLD

Gold price to surge to $10k under Harris administration - Peter Schiff $GLD

"Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened amid prospects of super-sized reduction in U.S. interest rates next week, while palladium has gained over 15% so far this week...."

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/gold-rallies-to-record-high-on-us-rate-cut-optimism/amp_articleshow/113316956.cms

breaking out over ath currently

234 ath on tap and inbound by the looks of it…currently 232.67

The Silver Institute expects silver demanded by 5G to more than double, from its current ~7.5 million ounces, to around 16Moz by 2025 and as much as 23Moz by 2030, which would represent a 206% increase from current levels. $GLD

i saw that and loaded up on calls for it

DD....$Gold Breaking Out vs Commodities (Top Chart) As US Dollar Weakens (Bottom Chart)



$GOLD MINERS NEWS - $Gold now has a historical breakout vs US CPI. A very bullish chart for precious metals.
$Gold Has Also Broken Out vs CPI



The inflation-adjusted $gold price having a 44-year break out has absolutely massive implications going forward…

$15,000 GOLD Soon! Prepare for the BIGGEST $Gold & $Silver Rally in 50 Years - John Rubino
Money Sense



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRqgjDx8fs4

Central Bank $Gold Buying Doubled in July
Mike Maharrey
September 3rd, 2024
·


https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/03/central-bank-gold-buying-doubled-in-july-003427

DD....$Aris Mining Corporation (Aris Mining or the Company) (TSX:...

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/AMEX/aris-mining-ARMN/stock-news/94431244/aris-mining-publishes-its-2023-sustainability-repo

DD....$Pelangio Exploration Inc. NEWS -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175015670

DD....$Patagonia Gold Corp, formerly known as Hunt Mining Corp., is a Silver and Gold production company.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175046791

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172090585

$HGLD & $PGDC With One Of The Richest Highest Grade Silver Mine On Earth - Patagonia Gold
& Silver Mines Hard Asset Safety Bargain --

https://patagoniagold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Patagonia-Gold-Corporate-Presentation-Q4-2022-.pdf

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Patagonia-Gold-Corp.-HGLD-33022

https://www.patagoniagold.com

GOD BLESS

GOLD TRUST NEWS - $Gold now has a historical breakout vs US CPI. A very bullish chart for precious metals.
$Gold Has Also Broken Out vs CPI



The inflation-adjusted $gold price having a 44-year break out has absolutely massive implications going forward…

$15,000 GOLD Soon! Prepare for the BIGGEST $Gold & $Silver Rally in 50 Years - John Rubino
Money Sense



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRqgjDx8fs4

Central Bank Gold Buying Doubled in July
Mike Maharrey
September 3rd, 2024
·


https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/03/central-bank-gold-buying-doubled-in-july-003427

DD....$Aris Mining Corporation (Aris Mining or the Company) (TSX:...

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/AMEX/aris-mining-ARMN/stock-news/94431244/aris-mining-publishes-its-2023-sustainability-repo

DD....$Pelangio Exploration Inc. NEWS -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175015670

DD....$Patagonia Gold Corp, formerly known as Hunt Mining Corp., is a Silver and Gold production company.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175046791

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172090585

$HGLD & $PGDC With One Of The Richest Highest Grade Silver Mine On Earth - Patagonia Gold
& Silver Mines Hard Asset Safety Bargain --

https://patagoniagold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Patagonia-Gold-Corporate-Presentation-Q4-2022-.pdf

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Patagonia-Gold-Corp.-HGLD-33022

https://www.patagoniagold.com

GOD BLESS

GOLD INSTANTLY - Gold Standard 2.0: "Russia & China's About to Change the World Forever" - Peter Schiff
Money Sense



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvohrO1rUDE

$15,000 GOLD Soon! Prepare for the BIGGEST Gold & Silver Rally in 50 Years - John Rubino
Money Sense



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRqgjDx8fs4

Central Bank Gold Buying Doubled in July
Mike Maharrey
September 3rd, 2024
·


https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/03/central-bank-gold-buying-doubled-in-july-003427

DD....$Aris Mining Corporation (Aris Mining or the Company) (TSX:...

https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/AMEX/aris-mining-ARMN/stock-news/94431244/aris-mining-publishes-its-2023-sustainability-repo

DD....$Pelangio Exploration Inc. NEWS -

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175015670

DD....$Patagonia Gold Corp, formerly known as Hunt Mining Corp., is a Silver and Gold production company.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175046791

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172090585

$HGLD & $PGDC With One Of The Richest Highest Grade Silver Mine On Earth - Patagonia Gold
& Silver Mines Hard Asset Safety Bargain --

https://patagoniagold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Patagonia-Gold-Corporate-Presentation-Q4-2022-.pdf

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Patagonia-Gold-Corp.-HGLD-33022

https://www.patagoniagold.com

GOD BLESS

The silver market has been experiencing a structural deficit for several years, with demand exceeding supply:

2021: Deficit of 81 million ounces

2022: Deficit of 253 million ounces

2023: Deficit of 184.3 million ounces, the second highest on record

2024: Deficit expected to widen to 215.3 million ounces
$GLD

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 294.4k, up 3.2k.



Going into this week, gold went sideways at $2,540s-50s for six sessions. This continued this week before suffering a 1.3-percent tumble on Friday, losing 0.7 percent for the week to $2,528/ounce. This preceded last week’s spinning top.

Earlier, the metal posted a fresh record of $2,570 on the 20th. Before that, it went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. It is probable the yellow metal is headed for a breakout retest. Non-commercials do not seem much worried about a breach; they are net long gold futures the most since March 2020.

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DiscoverGold

NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 31, 2024

Next Monday is Labor Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Gold Futures closed today at 25276 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Presently, this market has been rising for 10 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 25198 and overhead resistance forming above at 25385. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 19th at 25704, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 11 weeks reaching a high during the week of August 19th at 25064. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 1.704% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25266 which still remains 9.651% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25704 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 21978 and 26480. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of August 19th has exceeded the previous high of 24884 made back during the week of July 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 21 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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Gold Poised for Pullback Before Potential Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | August 30, 2024

• Gold completes an inside week amid consolidation, facing a potential dip to key support levels before momentum may return for a bullish continuation.

This week is set to complete an inside week for gold. Friday was the third day in a row of lower highs and gold is on track to end the day in a weak short-term position, below yesterday’s low and it is set to close in the lower quarter of the day’s range. Further, it may close today’s session below yesterday’s low.



Low Volatility Prolongs Uncertainty

Given the lack of momentum as gold has been consolidating in a tight range for 10 days, it looks like it may dip again to test support around the top of a symmetrical triangle pattern. The most recent minor swing low of 2,471 along with the 20-Day MA at 2,474 can be watched along with the top line of the triangle (purple). If the top of the triangle fails to hold as support a test of the lower 50-Day MA may occur. It is currently at 2,421 and can be watched along with an internal uptrend line.

Waiting for Follow-though After Bull Breakout

Gold trigged a breakout of a symmetrical triangle into new record high two weeks ago. And it was confirmed by a daily close near the highs of the breakout day and at a new record high. Volatility has since diminished resulting in a 10-Day price range from 2,471 to 2,532. If it can’t get going soon there is an increasing likelihood that another pullback lower may come before momentum returns.

Inside Week Sets Up

The highest price for gold this week was 2,529 and it provides an initial price level to signal an upside breakout that could see a bullish continuation. An inside week represents consolidation on that time frame. Gold is set to complete the month in a bullish position, above the halfway point of the month’s trading range. Not as strong of a bullish indication as it could be but still bullish, nonetheless.

Bullish Above 2,532

A rally above the August high of 2,532 will signal a continuation of the bull trend. There is an initial upside target at 2,566, which comes from a long-term indicator. An extended target of a large rising ABCD pattern completes there. There could be signs of resistance once reached or gold could continue higher to complete a small ABCD pattern (purple) at 2,595 and possibly reach the initial target from the symmetrical triangle pattern at 2,604.

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Gold Eyes Breakout as It Retains Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | August 29, 2024

• Gold holds firm at key support levels, consolidating recent gains and setting its sights on a possible breakout towards 2,605.

Gold continues to show strength as it retains key near-term support levels on Thursday and attempts to rally above yesterday’s high of 2,528.93. At the time of this writing, gold is traded inside Wednesday’s price range with a high of 2,528.66 and a low of 2,504. You can see on the chart how the low today bounced off support represented by the trendline drawn across the top of the recent consolidation phase, starting from the April swing high. Gold has closed above that line for eight of the last 10 days.



Holds Above Support

Key near-term support is represented by the top line of a symmetrical tringle pattern (purple). As of today, the 20-Day MA at 2,471 has converged with the top line, pointing to the same support level. The 20-Day line is trending up and will represent higher prices going forward. As it does so, it will replace the top triangle line as key near-term support.

Awaiting Further Upside Following Breakout of Symmetrical Triangle

Following a bullish breakout of the triangle nine days ago, gold has been consolidating. It quickly hit a new record high of 2,532 a couple days after the breakout and then pulled back to find support at the top line of the triangle. Since then, it has not gone far. Of course, a bull trend continuation signal will be indicated on a breakout above 2,532. If another pullback to again test support around the top of the triangle occurs first, it would not be surprising given the obvious bull trend. Sometimes an obvious price pattern fails to follow through as anticipated.

Triangle Indicates 2,605 Potential Target

An upside breakout will have gold heading towards several potential targets where resistance may be seen. Basic analysis of the symmetrical triangle pattern indicates a minimum possible target of 2,605. However, there are lower interim targets as well that could be significant. The primary price level below the triangle target is 2,566.

It is derived from a long-term pattern that completes a rising ABCD pattern extended by the 161.8% ratio. In other words, the CD leg of the advance is 161.8% of the first AB leg up. The first leg up begins from the September 2022 swing low and the second starts from the October 2023 swing low. A harmonic relationship between the two upswings of the pattern occurs at the target.

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U.S. pending home sales drop 5.5% in July $GLD

Gold Holds Above Key Support, Poised for Potential Upside Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | August 28, 2024

• Consolidating near record highs, gold awaits a breakout above 2,532 to confirm its bullish trend and target higher levels in the coming weeks.

Gold continues to consolidate near recent record highs on Wednesday, as it awaits an improvement in demand that can take it higher. The recent record high of 2,532 is the key price level to watch to signal an upside breakout and bull trend continuation. Gold remains in a relatively tight consolidation range from 2,471 to 2,532, above important support. The range follows a clear bull breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern on August 16, which was followed by a new record high.



Signs of Strength Remain

Following the bull breakout gold pulled back and successfully tested support around the top trendline of the triangle pattern with last Thursday’s low of 2,494. Further, yesterday’s session saw a new record daily closing high for gold, a sign of strength. Moreover, the rising purple 20-Day MA is about to converge with the top triangle line and further strengthen the potential significance of the top line that now represents potential support. As long as gold stays above the top triangle line and the 20-Day MA it remains bullish with an expectation for eventual new record highs.

Price Range Evident in Weekly Chart

The weekly chart confirms the price range noted above from the daily chart. It also reflects the tight consolidation pattern that has lasted eight days including today. On the weekly chart (not shown) last week’s high of 2,532 and low of 2,471 show the same price range. Although this week is not yet over, it is an inside week so far.

Daily and Higher Time Frames are Bullish

Given the development of an uptrend in both the long-term and short-term time frames, including the past five weeks, gold is expected to eventually head to new record highs. A decisive rise above 2,532 will trigger a continuation of the uptrend and the breakout of the symmetrical triangle. There are a variety of potential initial upside targets beginning with 2,543, 2,566, and a range from 2,595 to 2,605. The higher price level is the target from measuring the symmetrical triangle pattern.

Since gold remains in consolidation it may yet decline to below the 20-Day MA and top triangle line to test support at lower prices. If it does a test of the lower boundary of the triangle is possible. Within the range is potentially significant support represented by the 50-Day MA at 2,414.

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Markets Firmly Expect The Fed To Cut Interest Rates On September 18 $GLD

Gold Poised for Upside Continuation
By: Bruce Powers | August 27, 2024

• Gold's bullish momentum continues, holding above $2,504, with key targets at $2,543, $2,566, and a triangle target of $2,605.

Gold continued to hover above support on Tuesday represented by the top trendline (blue) that covers the recent consolidation phase. Today’s low of 2,504 successfully tested the line again and it was followed by a bounce. That is a sign of strength in a developing uptrend, particularly relative to the prior pullback, which found support at the top boundary line of a symmetrical triangle (purple) consolidation pattern three days ago.

Gold is set to close strong, in the upper quarter of the day’s price range, at the time of this writing. Therefore, it may finish the day with a bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern. And it may end today at its second highest daily closing price on record. Yesterday’s closing price of 2,518 is the current record daily close.



Grinding Higher

The path of least resistance for gold continues to be up. It triggered a bullish breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern on August 16 and has been largely consolidated since and slowly showing sign of strengthening. Also, notice that the purple 20-Day MA has been rising and is close to breaking out above the top triangle line (purple). The orange 50-Day MA converged with the internal uptrend line on July 25 (C) and it continues to track the trendline closely. This tells us to pay attention to these moving averages as gold progresses into higher prices.

Triangle Target Points to 2,605

There are several initial upside targets to pay attention to. But let’s start with the higher initial target marked by the measuring objective from the symmetrical triangle pattern. As with most consolidation patterns, we can measure the height of the pattern once fully formed, then add that distance in price to the breakout level. For gold, that provides a minimum anticipated target derived from the pattern at 2,605. Moreover, there are two earlier target levels to be aware of, at 2,543 and 2,566.

Support Above 24.71 Needs to be Maintained

Regardless of how bullish the chart looks for gold there is always the potential for a pullback before attempting higher prices. Near-term support is at last week’s low of 24.71. That is also a minor pullback that makes up part of the rising short-term trend of higher swing lows and higher swing highs that starts from the July swing low.

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As of August 15, 2024, the Silver Institute predicts that the global silver deficit will increase by 17% in 2024, reaching 215.3 million troy ounces. This is due to a 2% increase in demand, mainly from industrial consumption, and a 1% decrease in supply. The Silver Institute also predicts that global production will fall to 823.5 million ounces in 2024, due to the closure of several mines in Peru and output declines in Mexico and Argentina in 2023. $GLD $SLV

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 24, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 291.3k, up 24k.



Gold trudged higher to yet another record in a spinning top week. The metal rose 0.3 percent to $2,546/ounce, with an intraday high of $2,570 on the 20th.

The yellow metal has gone sideways at $2,540s-50s the last six sessions. A possible breakout in the sessions ahead will open the door toward this week’s high, and that will decide which way gold goes near-term.

Earlier, the metal went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. Gold bugs should be fine as long as this breakout remains intact.

In the meantime, non-commercials are net long gold futures the most since March 2020.

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Gold Market Update - MASSIVE PARABOLIC SLINGSHOT MOVE STARTING......
By: Clive Maund | August 19, 2024

Because gold has not done all that much since its April – May peaks many investors are unaware of the magnitude of the upleg that has begun so the purpose of this update is to make it crystal clear why this upleg is destined to be so massive, for both fundamental and technical reasons.
With regard to the fundamental reasons why gold’s still nascent major upleg is set to be so enormous, Doug Casey has just done an excellent and timely job of setting it all out in Gold’s Next Explosive Move which relieves me of this task, freeing me up to concentrate on the technical aspects, although I may add a few observations of my own.

The first and by far the most important point to be made in this update is that, taking the inflation of the past decade or so into account, gold had been stuck in a gigantic trading range until as recently as the Spring of this year that dates all the way back to its 2011 peak which capped its great 2000’s bull market as we can see on the long-term chart below that goes all the way back to the start of the millenium on the 1st January 2000. Observe the skewed grey shaded support and resistance zones marking the upper and lower boundaries of the trading range – skewed to take account of inflation during the years that this range formed. While various commentators made a big deal of gold’s nominal new highs in 2020 and late last year, these were not new highs when inflation was taken into account – real new highs have occurred just since the Spring of this year. It is thus clear that the decisive breakout that occurred this Spring was of momentous importance as it has ushered in what promises to be gold’s most spectacular bull market to date which is hardly surprising considering what is going on in the world with money creation having gone parabolic that is set to drive rampant inflation trending in the direction of hyperinflation and attendant extreme currency devaluation and the proliferation of war partly as an act of desperation as a gambit to deflect the public’s attention away from the real causes of the ballooning global economic crisis which is of course the past reckless actions of Central Banks, none more so than the Federal Reserve. In short we are looking at a perfect storm that will lead to gold doing a “moonshot”. Notice that this chart is free from unnecessary and distracting clutter like proliferations of trendlines and silly overcomplicated wave counts, although it is worth clarifying that the giant trading range has taken the form of a “Cup & Handle Continuation Pattern” as drawn on the chart which parallels a similar pattern on the long-term silver chart.



True gold aficionados will probably like this chart very much – please feel free to print out a large scale version of it to place on the wall, and you may of course want to frame it.

Armed with the understanding gleaned from gold’s very long-term chart we can put the action of recent years into context. So on the 7-year chart we can see that the reason it kept “hitting a wall” at $2100, which started with the 2020 peak, was that it was bumping up against the top of the giant upsloping range that we delineated on the very long-term chart, and waiting for things to get bad enough for it to break higher into the next major upleg, which it has now clearly done. The reason that the gold price spluttered sideways over the past several months is that it stopped to consolidate the March – April breakout which resulted in an extremely overbought condition as shown by its MACD indicator. Now that this has unwound it is starting higher again and as it advances away from the trading range, the rate of advance is likely to accelerate.



The shorter-term 7-month chart is very useful as it helps us to appreciate that the new upleg that is following on from the consolidation into June – July is now well underway with the price making new highs, but is still in its earliest stages with the parabolic uptrend shown set to slingshot gold higher. Everything on this chart supports continued and accelerating advance – the new highs, the moving averages being in bullish alignment, the strong On-balance Volume line also making new highs and improving momentum with the MACD showing that there is plenty of room for continued gains.



Investors can therefore buy gold and most gold-related investments with confidence.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 24, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 25463 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Presently, this market has been rising for 9 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25704 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 23274. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 24966.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 25351 and overhead resistance forming above at 25483. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 19th at 25704, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 25704 to 25064. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25704 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 25704. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 25370 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 20 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22480 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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Gold Nears New Record Highs as Bullish Momentum Builds
By: Bruce Powers | August 23, 2024

• Gold's bullish breakout points to new record highs, targeting 2,543 and beyond, with support holding at 2,471.

Gold is on track to end Friday with a higher daily high and higher low as a breakout above Thursday’s high of 2,515 was triggered. The high today was 2,518 but it is not yet clear whether gold will end the day above that price level. Nevertheless, it continues to show strength as it trades near the highs of the day. This provides a bullish setup off the first test of support at yesterday’s low of 2,471. What is telling is that support was seen at the top line of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern following a bullish breakout last Friday.



Rally Above Friday’s High of 2,518 Confirms Strength

A bullish signal will be generated on a rally above today’s high of 2,518 and set the stage for a rally into new record highs. Gold hit a new record high of 2,532 last week. The advance has the potential to continue gold’s long-term uptrend once that record high is exceeded.

Since the bull breakout of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern last week gold is in a position to continue to rise. It is coming up out of a rising consolidation pattern that has been forming since the April swing high of 2,431. Notice the sharp advance before the consolidation phase. Gold has the potential to see a similar rise once it gets traction and begins to clear the triangle pattern.

First Upside Target of 2,543

The next upside target for gold is around 2,543, which will complete a rising ABCD pattern (purple). Since that price level is so close to the current record high of 2,532, it may be easily surpassed. Next up will be a long-term ascending ABCD pattern target where the CD leg of the advance is extended by 161.8% of the AB leg of the pattern.

The measurement begins from the September 2022 swing low. Subsequently, there is a price zone from 2,595 to 2,605, derived from a 127.2% extended ABCD target from the smaller rising ABCD pattern and a target from measuring the symmetrical triangle formation, respectively.

Support at 2,471 Needs to Hold

Of course, surprises happen, and a deeper retracement may yet occur before a breakout to new record highs. For example, if yesterday’s low of 2,471 fails to hold as support, gold will likely dip to at least the 20-Day MA at 2,452 before it finds support.

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Gold Tests Key Support at Top of Symmetrical Triangle
By: Bruce Powers | August 22, 2024

• Gold pulls back to 2,471, testing key support at the triangle's top boundary. A reversal higher could continue the uptrend towards 2,532.

Gold pulled back to a low of 2,471 on Thursday before finding support and bouncing intraday. The decline successfully tested support at the top boundary line of the symmetrical triangle pattern as price was rejected to the upside. A bullish breakout of the triangle consolidation pattern triggered last Friday. Even though the price of gold advanced further to a high of 2,532 this week there was a notable decline in momentum, subsequently leading to today’s pullback.



Typical Behavior of Price in an Uptrend

It is typical of an uptrend to pull back to test prior resistance areas as support following a bullish breakout. The ideal maximum pullback is to the top boundary line. If gold can reverse higher from here it should be able to continue to progress its uptrend, initially with a breakout above 2,532. This is typical for most breakouts.

The bull breakout of the symmetrical triangle occurred relatively early in its formation. That showed strength of the breakout and suggests support from the pattern may not be as strong as a breakout closer to the apex of the triangle would be. Nevertheless, the breakout is technically viable and points to higher prices for gold.

Lower is the 20-Day MA at 2,446

The top boundary line of the triangle will continue to mark an area of interest for buyers. Notice that given its declining slope the price represented by the line will be lower as we go forward in time. Nevertheless, a decline below the line will have gold targeting potential support at the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,446. Lower down and closer to the bottom of the triangle is the 50-Day MA at 2,399.

Weekly support was seen last week at a low 2,424 and it could represent support again if it is approached. There are also a couple of prior swing high levels that have been added to the chart with right horizontal black line. They are at 2,450 from May 20 and 2,431 from the swing high on April 12.

Below 2,446 Hints at Failure of Breakout

It should also be understood that the center horizontal of the triangle is around 2,446. That price level will have significance if approached as a drop below it puts the bull breakout of the triangle at risk of failure. A decline through the bottom boundary line would confirm a failure of the bull move.

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$10,000 in Gold (GLD)
By: Bespoke Investment Group | August 22, 2024

In today's "$10,000 in..." series, we're taking a look at the gold ETF (GLD). The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) began trading nearly 20 years ago in November 2004. It marked the first time that investors could easily allocate funds to gold in a brokerage account.

When GLD began trading on 11/18/2004, it had total assets of just under $600 million after its first day of trading. By the end of 2004, AUM had more than doubled up to more than $1.3 billion.

Today, GLD has more than $68 billion in AUM. At its last quarterly filing, it held more than 26 million ounces of physical gold valued at more than $62 billion.

So what would a hypothetical $10,000 investment in the GLD ETF on its release date in November 2004 be worth today? As shown below, $10,000 would now be worth roughly $52,000. That's an annualized return of about 8.73%. Not bad for a piece of metal, right?



How does that $10k investment in GLD when it began trading nearly 20 years ago compare to something like the stock market? If we use the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as a proxy for US large-cap stocks, a $10,000 investment in SPY on the same day that GLD began trading back in November 2004 with dividends re-invested would be worth about $68,725 today. That's an annualized return of roughly 10.2%, or about 1.5 percentage points better than GLD annually. You can see how both GLD and SPY got to their current levels in the chart below.

As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results!



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The price of a bar of gold is worth a million dollars for the first time, thanks to soaring prices for the precious metal. The price of spot gold reached more than $2,500 per troy ounce Friday, hitting a record high. The average gold bar weighs 400 troy ounces – which, when you do the math, hits a million dollars. $GLD https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-19/gold-bars-are-worth-a-million-dollars-for-the-first-time?embedded-checkout=true $SLV

Gold New Record High, Targets Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | August 20, 2024

• Gold hit a new record high of 2,532, signaling a strong uptrend. Further gains are expected, with targets at 2,566 and beyond.

Gold reached a new record high of 2,532 on Tuesday before pulling back intraday. A close above the halfway point of the day’s range at 2,514 today should be a stronger indication than a daily close below it. Gold is bullish on the daily chart and higher time frames as it just broke out of a base covering several months last Friday. Today’s advance is a third day up with higher daily lows and higher daily highs, indicating the progression of an uptrend. A bullish breakout was triggered today by a rally above yesterday’s high of 2,509. Yesterday was an inside day and represented a rest and consolidation day.



Next Target is 2,543

The day’s high of 2,532 was shy of the next higher target level at 2,543, which is an initial target from a rising ABCD pattern. Extended targets from the pattern include the 127.2% extension at 2,595, and the 161.8% extended target at 2,661. Other potential targets to watch for potential resistance on the way up include a 161.8% extended target at 2,566. That is from a long-term rising ABCD pattern that begins from the September 2022 swing low of 1,615. The second leg up begins from the October 2023 swing low.

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Following-through

Last week’s breakout to new record highs for gold was accompanied by a breakout of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. Calculating a measuring objective from the pattern provides a potential initial target of 2,605 (red arrows). That is very close to the 127.2% extended target of 2,595 and therefore they should be considered together as a price range.

Long Term Target at 2,715

Longer-term targets are higher than the 161.8% extended ABCD target at 2,661. There is a long-term target starting with 2,715. That price level is an extended retracement from the decline off the 1,921 high from September 2011. The extension is 200% of the decline. It is interesting that a long-term measured move based on percentage performance also points to that price zone giving it added potential significance. Long-term measured provide potential more significant price levels. And this makes it more likely they will eventually be encountered eventually. The long-term monthly chart is supportive of such a scenario as well.

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Gold $GLD - Want to see it pop the Log Chart 'Flag'...
By: Sahara | August 19, 2024

• $GOLD $GLD - Want to see it pop the Log Chart 'Flag'...



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$GLD Weekly secondary consolidation breakout
By: Theta Warrior | August 18, 2024

• $GLD Weekly secondary consolidation breakout.



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Gold into the 28th
By: Marty Armstrong | August 18, 2024



Remember that the resistance starts really at the 2573 level, with Friday reaching 2548.3 from a Low of 2488.2 and closing at 2537.8. But things are looking to be a bit choppy this week, with the potential of rising into the 28th. It appears that when gold declines, silver will gain ground on the ratio. That needs to take place for the real breakout.

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China's high demand for silver is driving up prices and causing a supply and demand gap. Silver is used in many applications in China, including solar panels, electronics, and automotive components. In fact, China is the world's leading producer of photovoltaic panels. Demand from solar PV panel manufacturers in China is expected to increase by almost 170% by 2030, which could account for one-fifth of total silver demand. $GLD

China's high demand for silver is driving up prices and causing a supply and demand gap. Silver is used in many applications in China, including solar panels, electronics, and automotive components. In fact, China is the world's leading producer of photovoltaic panels. Demand from solar PV panel manufacturers in China is expected to increase by almost 170% by 2030, which could account for one-fifth of total silver demand. $GLD

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 17, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 13, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 267.3k, up 28.5k.



Gold rallied 2.6 percent this week to a new closing high of $2,538/ounce, with an intraday high of $2,548.

Earlier, the metal went sideways at $2,440s-50s for more than three months before breaking out early this month. As long as gold bugs are able to defend this level, the ball remains in their court.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 17, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 25378 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 9 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 25483 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 23274. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 24966.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 25173.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 12th at 25483, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 25483 to 24627. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 25483 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 25483. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 24996 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 20 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22480 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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Gold New Highs and Future Projections
By: Bruce Powers | August 16, 2024

• Gold's bullish breakout to $2,506 signals continued upward momentum, with key targets at $2,543 and $2,605, as the market eyes further gains.

Gold broke out to a new record high on Friday following a failed attempt on Wednesday. Momentum was strong and remains so as trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. It has traded as high as 2,506 and will likely close strong for the week thereby confirming a continuation of the long-term bull trend. Given that this is the first day of the breakout a continuation next week seems likely.



Breakout of Symmetrical Triangle

Today’s advance triggered a breakout from a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that has been forming for about a month. A strong burst of upside momentum was seen on the move out of the triangle, and it is what should support improving demand from market participants over the weekend.

Follow-through will be key from here. Does gold pullback first before rising above this week’s high and staying there? Or is a pullback to test the breakout zone as support to happen first.

Triangle Targets 2,605

As for targets, the measuring objective from the triangle pattern is estimated to be 2,605. That’s derived by taking the distance in price from the low to high of the pattern and then projecting it up from the breakout price level (red arrows). However, on the way there the next target is identified around 2,543. That’s where a rising ABCD pattern completes an initial target. The secondary target is a 127.2% extension at 2,595. Notice that it is close to the triangle target and therefore the two price levels can be watched as a price range.

Long-Term Analysis Points to 2,566

In between those two target areas is a long-term target at 2,566. It comes from a large rising ABCD pattern that starts from the lows in September 2022. The CD leg of the pattern begins from the lows in October 2023 and the target is a 161.8% extension of the AB leg of the pattern. The most recent long-term target was hit around the prior record high in July. Just a reminder that these levels deserve to be attended to. Also, they fail and that is also telling about the dynamics of the market at the time. Of course, there are also higher potential targets in gold but first the initial targets need to be reached.

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