February 2023 auto sales are
expected to advance mildly from the month-prior level, but not
nearly enough movement to identify any change to current demand
dynamics
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Feb. 23,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- With US light vehicle sales
volume for the month projected at 1.1 million units, we expect
February 2023 to represent
year-over-year (y/y) growth of 5%, the seventh consecutive month of
y/y volume improvement. The tally would also be up more than 6%
compared to January volumes. February
2023 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an
estimated sales pace of 14.4 million units (seasonally adjusted
annual rate: SAAR), a marked decline from the month-prior figure,
although the underlying sales rate, as represented by the daily
selling rate metric, should advance mildly.
Auto demand levels so far this year have
sustained the trends converging in the market at the end of
2022
"Auto demand levels so far this year have sustained the trends
converging in the market at the end of 2022," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P
Global Mobility. "Perhaps notably, fleet sales as a portion of
total monthly volume have escalated over the past few months. While
this could be an additional signal that auto consumers continue to
face an uncertain purchase environment, fleet improvements are not
unexpected, as auto production and inventory levels continues to
advance."
Regarding the auto production environment, "While demand
destruction concerns remain pervasive, production levels are well
underway, which should improve vehicle availability by mid-2023,"
said Joe Langley, associate director
of research and analysis for S&P Global Mobility's North
American Light Vehicle Forecasting & Analysis
team. "Greatly improved vehicle availability may in turn
stimulate demand as incentive levels are expected to increase."
The S&P Global Mobility auto outlook for 2023 continues to
carry a countercyclical narrative: We expect production levels will
continue to improve even as economic conditions are worsening
through the early stages of the year. Together with improving
production volumes, reports of sustained retail orders, recovering
vehicle inventory, and more fleet demand we should see improvements
even with worries of an economic recession. S&P Global Mobility
forecasts calendar-year 2023 sales volume of 14.8 million units, a
7% increase from the 2022 tally.
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Feb 23
(Est)
|
Jan
23
|
Feb
22
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,098,000
|
1,033,000
|
1,045,624
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
14.4
|
15.7
|
13.7
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
11.5
|
12.6
|
10.9
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
2.9
|
3.1
|
2.8
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Sustained development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains a constant assumption for 2023. The Tesla and Ford price
adjustments should continue to boost the monthly BEV share to
record levels, as reports reflect that the downward price movement
for its products has boosted demand. BEV share in February is
estimated to reach 8.0%, continuing the momentum realized in
January. Whether these pricing adjustments will be matched by
the likes of Hyundai, Kia, and Volkswagen and become a BEV price
war, the reaction of other auto companies will determine whether
the gains in the BEV mix level will be a blip or a tipping point in
the electrification progress of the market.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility