Earnings Preview: Forest Labs - Analyst Blog
April 14 2011 - 12:30PM
Zacks
Forest Labs (FRX) is all set
to announce its fourth quarter and fiscal 2011 results on April 19.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter is $1.07,
representing a year-over-year increase of 28.9%. Meanwhile, the
Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2011 is $4.35, representing a
year-over-year increase of 23.9%.
Third Quarter Fiscal 2011 Highlights
Forest Labs reported strong earnings in the third quarter,
beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a huge margin. Earnings
came in at $1.34 for the third quarter of fiscal 2011, easily
beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.99 and the year-earlier
earnings of $0.97. Strong Namenda sales, lower expenses and lower
share count boosted earnings.
Total revenues increased 5.8% to $1.13 billion with net sales
increasing 6.7% to $1.06 billion. Total revenues topped the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of $1.09 billion.
While Lexapro revenues increased slightly (up 0.7%) to $586.5
million, Namenda, which is approved for the treatment of moderate
and severe Alzheimer’s disease, delivered sales of $319.8 million,
recording a growth of 13.2% from the year-earlier period. Improved
patient access and increased promotional efforts should help keep
Namenda sales strong.
Other products like Bystolic and Savella also performed well.
Savella posted sales of $24.6 million, up significantly from the
year-earlier sales of $15.4 million. Sales are being driven by
Forest Labs’ promotional efforts.
Following the release of third quarter results, Forest Labs once
again revised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2011. Forest Labs
now expects earnings in the range of $4.20 - $4.30 per share, up
from its earlier guidance of $3.80 - $3.90.
Agreement of Estimate Revisions
Over the past seven days, there have been no earnings estimate
revisions for Forest Labs. However, over the past 30 days, one of
the 26 analysts covering the stock has raised their estimates for
the fourth quarter as well as fiscal 2011. There have been no
movements in the opposite direction.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.35 for fiscal 2011 is above
the high end of the guidance range provided by the company.
Magnitude of Revisions & Earnings
Surprise
The magnitude of revisions is negligible over the past thirty
days for the fourth quarter as well as fiscal 2011. The Zacks
Consensus Estimate for the fourth quarter currently stands at
$1.07.
Forest Labs has delivered a mixed performance over the past four
quarters. While the company surpassed expectations in the first
nine months of fiscal 2011, results for the fourth quarter of
fiscal 2010 were in-line with expectations. The average earnings
surprise for the last four quarters was a positive 17.4%.
For the fourth quarter and fiscal 2010, Forest Labs is expected
to deliver in-line results. Factors like slightly stronger sales,
lower SG&A and R&D spending, favorable mix in lower tax
jurisdictions and the reinstatement of the R&D tax credit are
expected to drive earnings.
Recommendation
We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Forest Labs, which
translates into a Zacks #3 Rank (short-term “Hold” rating). While
products like Namenda, Bystolic and Savella should continue
performing well, we remain concerned about long-term growth at
Forest Labs, especially from 2012 when Lexapro is exposed to
generic competition. That puts a lot of pressure on the pipeline to
come through. With the uncertainty surrounding the approval of
Daxas, we believe Forest Labs will intensify its in-licensing and
acquisition activities to grow its pipeline. Products in Forest
Labs' portfolio face competition from companies like
Pfizer (PFE) and Eli Lilly (LLY)
among others.
FOREST LABS A (FRX): Free Stock Analysis Report
LILLY ELI & CO (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report
PFIZER INC (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report
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