cadillacdave
3 hours ago
Maybe you should read with comprehension, what I said. I was not being a naysayer.
First, I agreed with jetmek that at this time charting can't really capture what is going on. Too many external influences on the market at this time, causing volatility.
As to my China comments - I was saying that the revenue that would be lost selling to China would simply be accounted for (added in a different column) in a different revenue stream, as China will still get what they want/need through back channel sources.
Therefore, there would be no loss in overall revenue! I can't make it any simpler than that for you.
You seem awfully worried and concerned about my comments which you wrongfully perceived as negative.
Here's the negative comments - since that is what you are looking for. This has nothing to do with China or the fundamentals. This week will be a bad week for the markets and NVDA will follow it down. Hope your satisfied now.
Jetmek_03052
8 hours ago
‘A Rare Opportunity Is Hiding,’ Says Top Investor About Nvidia Stock
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-rare-opportunity-is-hiding-says-top-investor-about-nvidia-stock/ar-AA1BVIp0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=a7385a7733154de192f25503913b73ef&ei=9
Various concerns – including how the company will sustain its rapid growth, mounting risks tied to its China business, Trump’s proposed tariffs, and the entrance of Deep Seek into the AI game – have all helped sour sentiment. The impact? NVDA shares have tumbled 18% year-to-date.
So, investors need to ask themselves whether this marks the beginning of a bigger downturn or whether the recent price action represents an opportunity to grab shares at a discount.
That’s exactly what top investor Rick Orford is wondering: “After its recent pullback, I had to dig deeper. Is this just a pause… or the perfect setup for another explosive move?”
His verdict leans bullish. Orford, who’s among the top 2% of TipRanks’ stock pros, points to Nvidia’s recent outstanding results, which include both impressive top-line and bottom-line growth. And in his view, that’s just the beginning.
“Knowing that AI adoption is still in its early stages, the company’s upward trajectory will likely continue for years,” the investor further said.
While it’s true that past performance does not guarantee the company will continue to outperform, Orford thinks several potential catalysts are lining up to position Nvidia to keep on doing just that.
Bottom line, the investor thinks the recent depressed price action could turn out to be a “rare opportunity hiding in plain sight.” “You don’t want to be on the sidelines when this stock makes its next move,” Orford summed up, rating NVDA shares a Strong Buy. (To watch Orford’s track record, click here)
He’s far from alone. The analyst consensus paints a similarly bullish picture, with 39 Buys vs. just 3 Holds, earning NVDA stock a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target of $176.54 points to a potential upside of ~61% for the year ahead.
DiscoverGold
15 hours ago
NVDA Nvidia - The following two weeks have historically brought back-to-back losses...
By: TrendSpider | March 30, 2025
• Nvidia is staring down one of its weakest stretches of the year. The following two weeks have historically brought back-to-back losses, with seasonal headwinds front-loaded into Q1. Adding pressure, Microsoft recently scrapped data center projects totaling 2 gigawatts across the U.S. and Europe, raising concerns about future demand. With semis lagging in Q1, the question becomes whether or not Q2 will offer any relief.
DiscoverGold
cadillacdave
15 hours ago
I do understand that not all of the 25% of revenue from China is from GPUs. But even 10% of revenue, specific to GPUs, is significant, if it disappeared. Expectations for NVDA are always high. Even when NVDA beats earnings and expectations, the price still drops, on occasion. So an actual 10% decline in revenue would be significant.
What I am saying is that there won't be an overall drop in revenue. The revenue simply ends up in a different column, not related to China, as they will acquire what they want/need through different vendors, sources and countries. The revenue will still be there, just accounted for from a source, other than China.
I don't have a lot of faith in analysts, who get paid to promote/pump stocks, or dont promote other stocks that are good, because they aren't getting paid. Most of them have a dog in the show.
Furthermore, most analysts were really far behind the curve in 2024, during the big run up. During that time frame, most analysts 12 month predictions were eclipsed within 2 weeks.
Most analysts predictions have been way off the mark on this stock.
cadillacdave
17 hours ago
The revenue derived from China was more than 25% of revenue, which is significant, at $17 billion.
My point was that if Chinese revenue drops off due to restrictions, they will simply acquire what they want through back channels, thereby increasing revenue for NVDA in other areas, resulting in no aggregate drop off in revenue
cadillacdave
2 days ago
We dont always agree, but an astute observation.
There are some concerns about fundamentals regarding a drop off in revenue, from China.
However, as someone else pointed out, China will likely circumvent those control measures and still acquire what they want through other channels, shell corporations, black market etc.
So effectively, revenue from China may drop but those revenues may very well be made up elsewhere.
cadillacdave
3 days ago
Profit margins are typically 6%-10%, for auto manufacturers (3%-5% is on the low side).
This is about fair trade, not free trade.
Most folks dont realize that the European Union has high tariffs on the import of American cars, to protect their automobile industry. As a result, there are very few American made cars in Europe. So in other words, their market is essentially closed to American cars.
Last November, the European Union anticipated that these tariffs might be coming and had discussed lowering their tariffs on the import of American automobiles. However, they failed to follow through and implement those actions, which could have helped avoid this tariff war.
This is not just about selling automobiles, as it is related to national security. It is best to be self sufficient as a country and not have to rely on foreign sourced supply chains, to make quick $$.
Just like restrictions on NVDA chips to China. It's more obvious but its also about national security.
Buffet has cultivated an image as a kind older gentlemen, investment guru, but he may have his own motivations and concerns here.
JJ8
3 days ago
Unbelievable what's going on in our beloved nation at this time for highly known and widely respected folks like Warren Buffett to issue a warning:
Warren Buffett: "America is on the Verge of ‘Economic War’" (RARE New Interview)
The US stock market has fallen into correction territory and Warren Buffett is warning that this could just be the beginning. Buffett broke his silence and had harsh words for what lies ahead for the economy and stock market. For the first time in years, Buffett gave a publicly available interview. He used this interview to give a warning about the potentially devastating impacts of tariffs and how this could lead to full out economic war. Take a listen to what Buffett had to say.
For a word that has gotten thrown around so much, very few people actually really know what tariffs are and how they function. So just how exactly do tariffs work? Well, a tariff is simply a tax applied to a country’s imports. Imports being things brought into a country that were manufactured elsewhere. To demonstrate how this works in action, let’s use the United States and Mexico as the trading partners and the example of a car.
The US auto industry is an extremely competitive industry. Auto manufacturers have average profit margins of just 3-5% over the long term. Put another way, for every 100 dollars in sales an auto company has, only 3 to 5 dollars of that turns into profit. A big driver of this is that the industry is notoriously price competitive. Understandably, consumers want the best possible vehicle at the lowest possible price. As a result, a significant part of the auto supply chain is outside the United States. This dynamic has led the auto industry to be front and center in the tariff discussion
Transcript? I will omit here.
This should be the most important topic for all Americans at this time.
doc2016
5 days ago
jensen said next generation after this is vera rubin...she discovered studied spiral galaxy.genimia ai says, "Vera Rubin was an American astronomer who made groundbreaking observations that provided compelling evidence for the existence of dark matter. Here's a breakdown of her significant contributions:
Galaxy Rotation Curves:
In the 1970s, Rubin, working with Kent Ford, studied the rotation of spiral galaxies.
They discovered that stars at the outer edges of galaxies were moving just as fast as those closer to the center.
This was unexpected because, according to the laws of gravity, stars farther from the galactic center should orbit slower.
Rubin's findings indicated that there must be an unseen mass exerting gravitational influence, keeping the stars from flying apart. This unseen mass is what we now call "dark matter."
Significance of Her Work:
Rubin's work provided strong observational evidence for the existence of dark matter, a substance that makes up a significant portion of the universe but does not emit or absorb light.
Her research revolutionized our understanding of galaxy dynamics and the composition of the universe."
so , when jensen mentioned her name in gtc keynote , he didn't indicated directly her work would have touched on oam, spin ip. this oam must be tied to dark matter and interactions with gravity?
so, jensen seems to be telling us of nvidia direction in a collaboration with the quantum qubit spins and twisted photons and bends in matter creating superconducting matter.
then his next generation is called Feynman, quantum guy who offered more of a complete quantum computer picture?
that seems to be the roadmap. his trajectory is a collaborative journey of melding the classical and quantum into our universe/metaverse?
"
Jetmek_03052
5 days ago
China regulators are discouraging the country's largest technology companies from buying the H20 chip - which was specifically designed to satisfy U.S. sanctions on exports. This news, along with news of fresh and more elaborate U.S. export restrictions being put on by the current administration, is driving this down this morning.
But as said here, it does look as if China is trying to circumvent trade restrictions by buying companies in those countries that are not restricted, and getting the chips they want that way. So yes, in reality NVDA is still getting the sales, just not to China directly. We will see if there's any drop in revenue in the next 10Q. I doubt there will be.
Still bullish and holding.
tw0122
5 days ago
Buy the dip. China data centers in US.. Chinese companies were happy to receive the H800s. However, they also figured out a new way to get access to Nvidia’s latest chips. If they built a data center in any of their neighboring countries and imported the Nvidia chips there, they could circumvent the export ban. That’s what ByteDance plans to do as well.For context, ByteDance is the owner of Doubao, the most-used AI chatbot in China with 51 million users. The company plans to continue its domination and for that, it is willing to go to great lengths to get its hands on Nvidia’s latest GPUs.So what does this mean for Nvidia? We already know that Nvidia’s China revenue has gone down from 25% of the total revenue to 15% over the last few years. But is it just a case of the missing revenue being diverted to other places and the products still ending up in China? After this development, that seems to be the likely case.This would mean that no matter how China and the US settle their trade disputes, China will, one way or the other, get its hands on Nvidia GPUs. As both countries try to hurt each other financially, Nvidia can come out unscated, or even the winner!
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