SEATTLE, Oct. 6, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN)
— Twenty-two percent of homebuyers and sellers said the upcoming
presidential election is impacting their plans to buy or sell a
home, according to an August survey from Redfin (www.redfin.com),
the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That's down from 32%
in November 2019, per a similar
Redfin survey. The drop from last year is likely due to the
pandemic, which seems to be outweighing the election as a factor
for homebuyers and sellers.
Thirteen percent of respondents said the election is making them
more hesitant to buy or sell a home, down from 20% in November 2019. Nine percent of respondents said
the election is making them less hesitant to buy or sell a
home, down from 12% in November. Election concerns are unlikely to
have a major impact on the housing market, partly because a portion
of those people will move forward with their plans to buy and/or
sell once the election has passed. The survey included more than
1,400 U.S. residents who plan to buy or sell a home in the next 12
months.
Alisha Pruitt, a Redfin agent in
Silicon Valley, said she doesn't expect this year's upcoming
presidential election to impact real estate activity.
"Almost all the buyers I work with ask how the election could
impact their home purchase," Pruitt said. "I don't have a crystal
ball, but presidential elections have never seemed to affect the
housing market much in the six election cycles I've been a real
estate agent. The pandemic is having a much bigger impact, with low
mortgage rates motivating buyers who want more space to work from
home."
Indeed, three-quarters of buyers and half of sellers say the
coronavirus pandemic is impacting their plans this year.
Forty-three percent of buyers said they're planning to buy a home
later than originally planned because of the pandemic, and 34% said
they're buying a home sooner than originally planned. Of sellers,
21% said the pandemic is delaying their selling plans, 19% said
it's accelerating their selling plans, and 10% said they've decided
not to sell their home.
"Some home sellers—and buyers, to a lesser extent—are delaying
their plans because of all the stress and uncertainty in the world,
including the divisiveness surrounding the presidential election,"
said Danielle Field, a Redfin real
estate agent in Louisville, KY.
"They don't want to add one more stressful experience to their
lives. I'm hopeful that once the election is over and there's
finally some certainty in this country, people will start putting
their homes on the market again, creating more inventory for
buyers."
Analysis of Past Presidential Elections Shows Minimal Impact
on Home Sales; Sales Dip 1.5% in December and Rebound 1.5% in
January
Redfin analyzed home sales in past presidential election years
going back to 1980 and found elections have little impact on home
sales when controlling for other economic factors such as changes
in mortgage rates. Home sales rose by an average of just 0.4% in
October and November of presidential election years compared with
non-election years. In December of presidential election years—the
month representing closed sales for offers made during
November—home sales dropped by an average of 1.5%, followed by a
1.5% recovery in January.
"Home sales typically don't rise or fall much during the months
surrounding a presidential election compared with those same months
in non-election years, and although the upcoming election is
happening at a particularly tumultuous time in our country's
history, I expect the trend to remain the same," said Redfin
economist Taylor Marr. "While
it's possible this year's election results may be up in the air for
a few weeks and the delay could cause some people to hold off on
buying or selling a home, the impact would likely be
short-lived."
Redfin Forecasts 6.2 Million Total Home Sales in 2020,
Highest Since 2005
All in all, Redfin's model forecasts that about 6.2 million
homes will be sold by the end of 2020, 3% more than in 2019, and
the most homes sold in any year since 2006. The model also allows
for a range of possible outcomes: It forecasts 6.08 million homes
sold, 1% more than 2019, on the low end, and 6.4 million, 6% more
than 2019, on the high end. Redfin's forecast is based on many
factors, including regional sales trends of new and existing sales,
mortgage rates and income growth. The large forecast range is due
to this election's uncertainty.
The full report and methodology are available at:
https://www.redfin.com/blog/presidential-election-impact-home-sales
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a
technology-powered residential real estate company, redefining real
estate in the consumer's favor in a commission-driven industry. We
do this by integrating every step of the home buying and selling
process and pairing our own agents with our own technology,
creating a service that is faster, better and costs less. We offer
brokerage, iBuying, mortgage, and title services, and we also run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage search site, offering a host
of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate. We
represent people buying and selling homes in over 90 markets in
the United States and Canada. Since our launch in 2006, we have
saved our customers over $800 million
and we've helped them buy or sell more than 235,000 homes worth
more than $115 billion.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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SOURCE Redfin