Fed Likely to Hold Interest Rates Steady
January 29 2020 - 5:59AM
Dow Jones News
By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve officials are likely to hold interest rates
steady and maintain their wait-and-see policy stance after their
two-day meeting ends Wednesday.
They cut rates three times last year, lowering their benchmark
federal-funds rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%, after raising
it four times in 2018.
Officials are likely to discuss several important
behind-the-scenes policy considerations this week, but aren't
expected to decide on any immediate action.
The Fed releases its policy statement at 2 p.m. ET, and Fed
Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a longer statement and answer
questions from reporters starting at 2:30 p.m. Here's what to
watch:
Economic Outlook
Since Fed officials' December meeting, financial markets had
been ebullient due to a trade truce between the U.S. and China and
glimmers of firmer global manufacturing activity. But fears about
China's coronavirus outbreak reignited global growth worries in
recent days, sending the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield earlier
this week below 1.6%, its lowest level since October.
Officials are likely to make just minimal changes to their
policy statement, leaving Mr. Powell to convey any nuances about
how they view the growth outlook.
While they are holding rates steady for now, they have signaled
they see greater risks of surprises that could force them to lower
rates than to lift them. The coronavirus is the latest example of
such a development.
Mr. Powell has essentially ruled out reversing last year's rate
cuts for the foreseeable future by saying he would want to see a
persistent and sustained rise in inflation before lifting rates.
The Fed staff doesn't forecast this happening for several
years.
Reserve Balances
With rates on hold, the focus at this week's meeting shifts to
officials' progress -- or lack thereof -- in fine-tuning their
control of short-term rates.
Fed officials avoided a much-feared spike in overnight lending
rates at the end of the year, a sign that flooding cash markets
with plentiful loans has worked for now. The question they now face
is what amount of bank deposits held at the Fed, called reserves,
they think will be needed once they curtail their current lending
operations and their purchases of Treasury bills.
Buying Treasury bills is designed to rebuild reserves that
officials think fell too low last September. They have suggested
they will eventually transition from their current monthly pace of
$60 billion in purchases to a lower level -- around $10 billion or
$15 billion, according to private-sector analysts -- to keep up
with normal currency growth.
How long they continue their market interventions will depend on
the quantity of reserves officials want to maintain in the system.
Officials haven't answered this critical question publicly, with
Mr. Powell instead saying the level of reserves should be no lower
than $1.45 trillion.
Reserves are currently slightly more than $1.6 trillion, but
only because of Fed bill purchases and lending in a key market for
secured debt called repurchase agreements.
What to Call It
Mr. Powell has said repeatedly that bill purchases aren't the
same thing as the Fed's post-2008 policies to stimulate growth by
buying Treasury securities and mortgage bonds, called quantitative
easing or QE. But a market rally from October until January led
commentators to argue that the purchases are akin to QE.
The debate over this matters because if investors believe these
policies are providing support to financial markets, that could
complicate efforts to phase them down this spring or summer. Given
market sensitivity to balance sheet policy in the past, investors
are likely to closely follow how Mr. Powell addresses these
questions in his press conference.
Technical Adjustment
The Fed's market interventions have pinned the effective
fed-funds rate near the bottom of its range, at 1.55%, which
matches a separate rate the Fed pays banks on reserves.
When the banking sector was awash in reserves, the Fed set the
rate on reserves at the top of the fed-funds range. But as the Fed
drained reserves from the system between 2017 and 2019, the
fed-funds rate traded slightly higher in the range. Twice in 2018
and twice last year, the Fed lowered the interest rate on reserves
relative to the top of the fed-funds range, each time by 0.05
percentage point, to keep fed-funds trading well within the middle
of its range.
A top Fed manager flagged the possibility at their December
meeting that officials at some point would need to lift the
interest rate on reserves by 0.05 percentage point to keep the
fed-funds rate in the middle of the range. This would reverse the
most recent cut officials made to the reserves rate in September,
when very short-term lending rates spiked because banks were
reluctant to lend reserves.
Most analysts expect the Fed to increase this rate, but it is an
open question whether it will do so Wednesday or revisit the
question at its next meeting in mid-March. If the Fed does lift the
interest rate on reserves, Mr. Powell is likely to say that the
decision is purely technical, as he has done every time they
adjusted it previously.
Framework Review
The Fed is likely to continue discussions on the review of its
inflation-targeting framework, but conclusions aren't expected for
several more months. Given the continuing review, officials decided
last month not to release their annual statement on longer-run
policy goals this week, as they typically do every January.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 29, 2020 05:44 ET (10:44 GMT)
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