Markets Rally as Trade and Brexit Uncertainties Recede -- Update
December 13 2019 - 1:15AM
Dow Jones News
By Steven Russolillo and Joanne Chiu
Global stocks rallied as progress with two of the biggest
overhangs for investors, trade and Brexit, bolstered risk appetite
late in what is already a banner year for markets.
President Trump has agreed to a limited trade agreement with
Beijing, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday. In the U.K., a
solid election victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's
Conservative Party raised hopes for a smooth exit from the European
Union.
Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.6% on Friday in Asia trading,
putting the benchmark on pace for one of its best days of the year.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 2%. The Shanghai Composite in
China rose 1.2%. Other benchmark indexes in South Korea and Taiwan
advanced 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively.
S&P 500 stock futures advanced 0.4%. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average and the S&P 500 had both gained nearly 1% on
Thursday after Mr. Trump said the U.S. and China were nearing a
deal, with the S&P reaching a record closing high.
"The geopolitical risks thought to be strangling world economic
growth, incredibly, just in the last 24 hours, seem to be closer to
getting resolved in a big, big way," said Chris Rupkey, chief
financial economist at MUFG. "The outlook in 2020 looks better than
it has in months."
Mr. Rupkey said he expects stocks around the world to keep
rallying and bond yields to rise further.
Sterling jumped 2.5% against the dollar, reaching the highest
since May 2018. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields on Thursday
rose by the most in three years on increasing optimism about
growth. They rose another 0.01 percentage point to 1.91% in Friday
morning trading in Asia.
The WSJ U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.44% to 89.94, the lowest since
July. Mansoor Mohi-uddin, senior macro strategist at NatWest
Markets, said a U.S.-China trade deal, Britain's possible orderly
exit from the EU, and looser monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe
together set the stage for a "decent selloff" in the dollar.
To be sure, previous breakthroughs in both trade and Brexit have
proven to be false dawns. Trade tensions have dragged on for almost
two years, while Britain's divorce from the EU has been bogged down
in the country's parliament since the June 2016 referendum.
Still, the elevated political uncertainty, which is also fueled
by U.S. impeachment proceedings, hasn't stopped many stock markets
from enjoying an exceptional year.
The S&P 500 has rallied 26%, on pace for its best annual
performance in six years. The rally has been underpinned by the
Federal Reserve, which has cut interest rates three times this year
to shore up growth, a reversal after four increases last year.
Earlier this week, it kept rates steady and showed no appetite to
raise them soon.
The about-face has rippled through global markets. The Stoxx
Europe 600 has risen 21% this year, while indexes in mainland
China, Japan and Taiwan are up by double-digit percentages. The
MSCI All Country World index has risen more than 20%.
Some observers are concerned about how much more markets could
rally from here. Eli Lee, head of investment strategy at Bank of
Singapore, said investors should expect modest returns in coming
years, given already-rich equity valuations. "Although the bull
market won't die in 2020, there are good reasons for return
expectations to be moderate," he said.
Write to Steven Russolillo at steven.russolillo@wsj.com and
Joanne Chiu at joanne.chiu@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 13, 2019 01:00 ET (06:00 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.