German Economy to Grow 1.1% in 2020, 1.5% in 2021 -Ifo Institute
December 12 2019 - 5:35AM
Dow Jones News
By Maria Martinez
The ifo Institute on Thursday confirmed its 1.1% growth forecast
for the German economy in 2020 and revised its growth forecast for
2021 upwardly by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%.
"At present, a recession in the general economy is very
unlikely," said Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of forecasts at the ifo
Institute.
Mr. Wollmershaeuser said fiscal policy is partly responsible for
the gradual recovery of the German economy, with boosts coming from
tax reliefs, social-insurance contributions and an increase in
public-investment expenditure.
According to the ifo Institute, the measures amount to almost 25
billion euros ($27.64 billion) per year, increasing GDP growth by
0.25 percentage points. The German government's surplus will shrink
to EUR30.5 billion in 2020, from EUR55 billion this year, the
institute said.
"The German economy remains splintered," Mr. Wollmershaeuser
said.
While the performance of domestically oriented service providers
and construction companies continues to improve, industry remains
caught in recession, he said. Trade tensions are hitting German
industry particularly hard, with the auto sector facing difficult
challenges, he added.
"However, the most recent order intake levels, business
expectations in the manufacturing sector, and a further increase in
goods exports in October indicated that the free fall has stopped
and that, gradually, light is appearing at the end of the
industrial economic tunnel," Mr. Wollmershaeuser said.
The ifo Institute expects unemployment to decline further to
2.25 million in 2020, bringing the unemployment rate down to 4.9%
in 2020 and 4.8% in 2021.
Germany's current account--the balance of exports, imports and
transfers--will continue to show a large surplus, reaching EUR271
billion, or 7.7 percent of annual economic output in 2020, the ifo
Institute said.
Write to Maria Martinez at maria.martinez@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 12, 2019 05:20 ET (10:20 GMT)
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