By Akane Otani
Stocks are a few percentage points away from records. Data are
pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economy.
The dueling narratives are challenging investors, who say they
are finding it increasingly difficult to reconcile the sustained
rise in share prices with widening cracks in the U.S. economy. Many
are also worried that the back-and-forth between President Trump
and China, as well as the Federal Reserve, is heightening the
pressure on an economy that they fear is starting to falter.
Among the warning signs: A key measure of manufacturing activity
fell last week to its lowest level in a decade. Consumer confidence
slipped to a seven-month low earlier in August, while expectations
for corporate profits have fallen so much that analysts say
earnings are likely to contract for at least three consecutive
quarters in 2019.
Other parts of the economy have shown resilience despite worries
that the U.S.-China trade conflict will hamper growth. Employers
continue to hire at a healthy clip, and many analysts believe that
if a recession were to occur, it would happen in 2020, not this
year. Nevertheless, with U.S. indexes already above levels where
many analysts had expected them to end the year, some investors
fear the market's decadelong rally looks more vulnerable now than
it has in quite some time.
That dynamic was especially evident Friday. Stocks slipped after
China said it would retaliate against planned U.S. tariffs, briefly
pared declines after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made remarks on
monetary policy, and then slumped after Mr. Trump delivered a
series of tweets lambasting both Mr. Powell and China. Despite the
swings, the market has hung on to hefty gains for the year: the
S&P 500 remains up 14% in 2019 and is just 5.9% off its
all-time high.
Investors will get another look at the state of the economy in
the days ahead when the Commerce Department releases a second
estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product and fresh data on
consumer spending.
"We're starting to see some fissures," said Jack Ablin, chief
investment officer of Cresset Capital.
Mr. Ablin said his firm held a call to reassure clients in
mid-August when the yield curve inverted, sending the yield on the
two-year Treasury note above that of the 10-year Treasury for the
first time since 2007. Cresset, like many other investment
managers, has trimmed some of its holdings of riskier assets such
as global stocks while shifting more money into areas it believes
can still offer growth, including the private equity secondary
market.
Those moves aren't driven by a belief that a recession is
imminent in the U.S. Instead, they reflect waning expectations for
the type of economic growth that powered double-digit returns
earlier in the bull market, Mr. Ablin said.
"There's a growing sense that the ability of central banks to
actually turn things around is limited," he added. Mr. Powell
suggested as much in remarks prepared for delivery in Jackson Hole,
Wyo., on Friday, saying there were "no recent precedents to guide
any policy response to the current situation."
Even as the Fed paused its rate-increase campaign and in July
lowered its benchmark short-term rate for the first time since
2008, the U.S. manufacturing sector in particular has shown
unmistakable signs of weakening. That has investors wondering how
much more stock prices, which typically rise when investors expect
growth in the future, can advance.
On the one hand, the services sector has continued to show signs
of strength. Commerce Department data earlier in the month showed
retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in July from the prior
month, marking the strongest reading since March. Companies from
Target Corp. to Walmart Inc. to Lowe's Cos. have posted strong
earnings in the past few weeks.
Those signs are reassuring to investors, especially because
consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic
growth.
Still, manufacturing downturns have often preceded broader
economic slumps over the past 25 years, according to Capital
Economics. That means it may be too early to conclude that the
problems weighing on industrial companies are isolated issues.
"If we continue to see concerns about tariffs affect the way
companies are investing or hiring or increasing wages...that's the
real concern," said Shannon Saccocia, chief investment officer of
Boston Private.
She added that, at the moment, the stock market looks relatively
attractive in part because of the comparatively paltry returns that
government bonds around the world are offering.
But as earnings decline further, stocks will look "more and more
expensive, so there's a concern there," Ms. Saccocia said.
Some investors are holding out hope that, with the U.S.
presidential elections approaching in little more than a year,
Washington and Beijing will come to a truce that helps stabilize
weaker sectors of the economy.
"The only thing I look at that I worry about is earnings and
manufacturing, both of which I attribute to tariffs and overseas
trade," said Tom Stringfellow, president and chief investment
officer of Frost Investment Advisors.
For Mr. Stringfellow, the economic data don't look worrying
enough yet to warrant a major rethinking of portfolios. Though the
labor market's expansion has slowed this year, the economy has
nevertheless extended a record 106-month streak of job creation.
And the unemployment rate continues to hover near a multidecade
low.
What gives Mr. Stringfellow pause: Much of the returns of the
first half of the year appear to have been driven by central banks'
shift toward lowering interest rates, he said.
For markets to churn higher from here, "We have to see the
economy growing," he said. "It can't just be central bank
policy."
Write to Akane Otani at akane.otani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 25, 2019 08:14 ET (12:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.