Amid the Fog, Trump's Real Agenda in Iran
May 20 2019 - 9:35AM
Dow Jones News
By Gerald F. Seib
Whatever other assets and liabilities he brings to the table,
President Trump certainly offers this: He is a master at sowing
uncertainty, so neither friend nor foe really knows what he's up
to.
And so it is right now with Iran, where Mr. Trump and his aides
have in the past two weeks alternately raised and lowered fears
about armed conflict. American warships moved toward Iran amid
intelligence reports on pending Iranian attacks on U.S. targets in
the Middle East. Then, Mr. Trump lowered the temperature, telling
aides he didn't want a fight and tweeting: "I'm sure that Iran will
want to talk soon."
On Sunday, he ramped the heat back up, tweeting: "If Iran wants
to fight, that will be the official end of Iran." Then he backed it
down again, saying in a Fox News interview: "No, I don't want to
fight."
It's confusing, which may be the goal. Yet the underlying
question is simple: What is Mr. Trump really trying to
accomplish?
Here's a reasonable guess, based on conversations with officials
and diplomats tracking the situation:
Mr. Trump almost certainly doesn't seek armed conflict with
Iran. He's gone out of his way to avoid or end clashes involving
American forces in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and North Korea, and
has done little to suggest a military move against Venezuela.
Meantime, the president and his adviser and son-in-law Jared
Kushner on Sunday were on the diplomatic track in the region rather
than the war track, rolling out a plan to hold an "economic
workshop" for the Palestinians next month in Bahrain, just across
the Persian Gulf from Iran. That's an attempt to extract
international financial commitments to Palestinians as a first step
toward getting them to make diplomatic concessions to end their
long conflict with Israel. Such an initiative would have little
chance of getting traction amid a hot fight with Iran.
So war doesn't seem to be the goal.
What Mr. Trump and his team are trying to do, however, is to use
economic sanctions to generate unprecedented pressure on Iran, with
two quite different purposes in mind.
The first is to create enough economic distress in Iran that the
regime could buckle under the weight of popular discontent. This
isn't explicitly a regime-change strategy, but it's close, and it's
been taking shape ever since Mr. Trump withdrew from the nuclear
deal President Obama struck with Iran and started reimposing
economic sanctions on Iran.
But the administration is doing more than simply reinstating the
old economic sanctions; it has made them considerably harsher. Its
stated goal is to drive Iranian oil exports as close to zero as
possible by using financial coercion to persuade other countries to
stop buying from Iran. Exports are indeed plunging.
Now that process has been combined with sanctions on Iran's
metals industry, another attempt to cut off export income, and a
declaration that Iran's Revolutionary Guard is a terrorist
organization, allowing the U.S. to impose sanctions on those who do
business with Revolutionary Guard leaders and their financial
affiliates.
The idea that internal dissatisfaction might topple the Iranian
regime is as old as the four-decade-long conflict between
Washington and Tehran. But Trump aides point to outbursts of
protest in the streets of Iranian cities as a sign that, maybe,
something is different now.
One senior administration aide acknowledges that the protests
are "sporadic" and without any central organization, but says: "In
a hundred cities and towns in the country there is enormous
dissatisfaction." At a minimum, the administration hopes economic
distress will cut Iranian payments to armed groups it supports in
the region.
The second potential goal is quite different from regime change.
It is to drive Iran's top leaders back into a conversation with the
U.S., perhaps with President Trump himself.
This seems implausible amid the poisonous atmosphere that now
prevails. Yet Mr. Trump has raised the idea periodically in recent
days, and officials confirm he is serious about it. The pattern of
his engagement with Iran now -- economic pressure, international
isolation, harsh threats, military maneuvering -- matches precisely
the track Mr. Trump followed before he opened negotiations with
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Iran is a much tougher nut to crack. It is far less isolated
than is North Korea, diplomatically and economically. Still, Trump
aides think they are bringing unprecedented pressure to bear.
The risks of miscalculation along the way are high. Iran's own
belligerent words and actions are a response to the economic
pressure. There's a real danger that some of the regional proxy
forces Iran supports -- Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen's Houthi rebels --
will decide to take matters into their own hands and strike at U.S.
targets on Iran's behalf.
Then things can spiral downward -- regardless of whether that's
what the president seeks.
Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 20, 2019 09:20 ET (13:20 GMT)
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