Global Stocks Slip as Economic Concerns Resurface
January 22 2019 - 5:52AM
Dow Jones News
By Avantika Chilkoti
Global stocks were slightly lower Tuesday as concerns over
global growth resurfaced, leaving investors questioning whether the
strong start to 2019 was a sign of the year ahead or simply a
fleeting moment of optimism.
In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.1% in morning
trading, weighed down by bank and mining stocks, with all of the
regional indexes moving lower. Most Asian markets also fell, with
China's Shanghai Composite down 1.2%, Japan's Nikkei 0.5% lower and
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index losing 0.7%.
Futures pointed to opening falls of 0.6% for both the S&P
500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average when they open following a
three-day break after Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Moves in futures
don't necessarily reflect market moves after the opening bell.
Concerns around global growth have weighed on equity markets
this week. The International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for
global economic growth in 2019 to 3.5% from a 3.7% estimate posted
in October. Meanwhile, official data published Monday showed the
Chinese economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the slowest annual pace since
1990.
Anna Stupnytska, global economist at Fidelity International,
said the slowdown in China is a positive signal for the world's
second-largest economy and suggests Beijing isn't using
"unproductive" big-bang stimulus measures.
"It's good for the long-term sustainable story and something
investors should be happy about," she said. "But it's not good for
markets and it's not good for the rest of the world because the
supply chains, the links to other countries, are way too important
to ignore."
The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket
of 16 currencies, was broadly flat.
Equity markets opened the year with a rally. The Stoxx Europe
600 is still up 5.4% this year and the S&P 500 up 6.5%, after a
sharp drop in the final quarter of 2018 when U.S.-China trade
tensions and the continuing government shutdown left investors
questioning whether the U.S. economy would sustain its strong
growth for much longer.
Many analysts see no justification for an upturn in equity
markets this year.
"What has changed is very little," said Ugo Lancioni, head of
the currency business at Neuberger Berman, though he also noted
there has been a marked shift in market expectations for U.S.
interest rates in the coming months.
In recent weeks Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has
repeatedly reassured investors the central bank will be "patient"
and "flexible" in its plans to raise rates in the world's largest
economy.
"Coupled with better data in the States, what has helped is the
Fed turning a little more cautious," Mr. Lancioni added.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to 2.757%, from 2.783% on
Friday. Yields move inversely to prices.
Investors will be watching closely for comments from Mario
Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, at a meeting later
this week.
Analysts at Rabobank see no reason for the ECB to change plans
to hold policy through the summer, adding that any decisions will
depend on fresh data about the health of the global economy.
"For practical reasons, the ECB would likely still wish to raise
rates from their exceptionally low levels, but the risks
surrounding this have clearly increased," analysts at Rabobank said
in a recent note to clients.
Earlier this month, weeks after the ECB moved to roll back its
EUR2.5 trillion ($2.85 trillion) bond-buying program, Mr. Draghi
pointed out that external factors including the slowdown in China
had triggered an unexpected weakening in the eurozone economy.
Elsewhere in commodities, global benchmark Brent crude oil was
down 1.3% to $61.91 a barrel.
Write to Avantika Chilkoti at Avantika.Chilkoti@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 22, 2019 05:37 ET (10:37 GMT)
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