Grains Finish Higher on Renewed Soybean Optimism
December 12 2018 - 4:06PM
Dow Jones News
By Kirk Maltais
-- Wheat contracts for March delivery rose 1%, to $5.26 1/2 a
bushel, at the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday.
-- January soybean contracts rose 0.6%, to $9.20 a bushel.
-- Corn contracts also rose for March delivery to 0.1%, to $3.85
1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Trump Comments Boost Soybean Sentiment: Statements from
President Trump that China is "buying tremendous amounts of
soybeans" instilled a new wave of optimism into the grains
markets--this despite yesterday's USDA report that kept its figures
for soybeans largely unchanged. Analysts say that Mr. Trump's
comments lent credence to the widespread rumors that state-owned
Chinese companies are buying 5 million-8 million tons of soybeans
out of the Pacific Northwest for state reserves.
Soybean Buy Considered Evidence of Chinese Return: Also lifting
soybean futures was this morning's announcement by the USDA of
sales of 130,632 tons of soybeans to Mexico, with another 110,000
tons sold to "unknown destinations" that some on the market thought
to be China. This, combined with claims of other buys by Chinese
companies, drove the sentiment that China would soon be buying
beans with regularity from the U.S. "I think the general discussion
point is the size of the purchases made by China in the coming
weeks," said Rich Nelson of Allendale Inc.
INSIGHT
Ethanol Production Shows Declines: Data released by the EIA
shows ethanol production down 23,000 barrels for the week at 1.046
million barrels per day, with U.S supply of ethanol down 140,000
barrels to 22.89 million. This is bearish for corn futures,
compounded by the USDA's forecast of lower corn usage in ethanol
production.
World Events of Chief Concern for Soybeans: The ongoing
geopolitical struggle regarding the fate of arrested Huawei
Technologies finance chief Meng Wanzhou continues to play out, with
Ms. Meng granted bail by a Canadian judge. President Trump also
commented that he is ready to intervene in the case if it will aid
trade relations between the U.S. and China--all of which is crucial
for soybeans growers that need the trade deal to work out to allow
for soybean sales to China to again commence.
AHEAD
--USDA releases its weekly export sales data on Thursday.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones expect wheat exports of
500,000-800,000 tons, corn exports of 850,000-2 million tons,
soybean exports of 900,0000-1.15 million tons, soymeal exports of
225,000-450,000 tons, and soyoil exports of 10,000-25,000 tons.
--USDA releases its county estimates for durum wheat, spring
wheat, winter wheat, oats and barley Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 12, 2018 15:51 ET (20:51 GMT)
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