U.S. Home-Builder Sentiment Posted Steep Decline in November -- Update
November 19 2018 - 11:56AM
Dow Jones News
By Sarah Chaney
A gauge of U.S. home-builder confidence fell sharply in
November, dragged down by heightened affordability concerns in the
housing market.
The National Association of Home Builders on Monday said its
housing-market index dropped by eight points to a reading of 60 in
November, well below economists' expectations and the lowest level
in more than two years.
The index measures builder confidence in the market for new
single-family homes. Figures over 50 mean more builders see
conditions as good rather than bad, which means that, despite the
November drop, builder sentiment is still in positive terrain.
November's drop reflects builders' rising concerns over
faltering demand in light of climbing interest rates and home
prices.
Labor shortages and rising regulatory costs have held down
single-family construction for several years, said Robert Dietz,
NAHB chief economist.
"While home price growth accommodated increasing construction
costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent
months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused
housing demand to stall," Mr. Dietz said.
Sentiment measures of current sales conditions, sales
expectations and buyer traffic all fell in November.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics,
said Hurricanes Florence and Michael could have pushed down builder
sentiment, so a December rebound is possible.
"Indeed, once the hurricane distortions fade from the new home
sales numbers, we expect to see a clear rebound for the next few
months, before the underlying softening trend re-emerges," Mr.
Shepherdson said in a note to clients. "The housing market is
softening, but it is not melting down, and these data likely overdo
the gloom."
The index touched the highest level in 18 years in December, and
pulled back this year as supply constraints and an affordability
crunch continued to weigh on the housing market.
Though home-price growth has moderated in recent months, it has
outpaced wage growth for years, making homes out of reach for many
first-time buyers.
Meanwhile, mortgage rates are approaching 5%.
The prospect of future interest-rate increases means builders
are taking a more cautious approach to the market, Mr. Dietz
said.
Recent economic data underscore weakness in building momentum.
Home building declined 5.3% in September from the prior month,
according to the Commerce Department's latest housing starts
report. Building permits, which can signal how much construction is
in the pipeline, also fell.
The Commerce Department releases its report on new-home
construction for October Tuesday.
Write to Sarah Chaney at sarah.chaney@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 19, 2018 11:41 ET (16:41 GMT)
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