Germany's Economy Sped Up in the 2nd Quarter, But Clouds Loom
August 14 2018 - 3:11AM
Dow Jones News
By Nina Adam
FRANKFURT--Germany's economic growth accelerated in the second
quarter, but economists said global trade tensions and a spiraling
currency crisis in Turkey are clouding the outlook for
businesses.
Gross domestic product grew at a quarterly rate of 0.5%, or 1.8%
in annualized terms, the Federal Statistical Office said Tuesday.
It also raised its first-quarter growth estimate to an annualized
1.5% from 1.2% growth reported in May.
As a consequence, Germany's economy outpaced the eurozone in the
three months through June--that is if the European Union's
statistics agency later Tuesday confirms its preliminary estimate
of 1.4% growth in annualized terms. But it lags U.S. growth of
4.1%.
The statistics body said "positive impulses" came from domestic
demand, as spending by German households and the government picked
up from the first quarter.
Private consumption is expected to remain solid in the coming
months, backed by a buoyant labor market and rising wages but
capped by rising inflation, which partly erodes the positive
effects of pay gains.
Investments in plants and machinery picked up too, albeit only
slightly, the German statistics body said, while net exports acted
as a drag on second-quarter growth.
But trade tensions stoked by the U.S.-- especially a souring in
relations between the US and China-- have already began to
undermine German business sentiment and companies' appetite for
bigger projects.
And while forecasters have turned more bullish on the U.S.
economy largely thanks to sweeping tax cuts by the Trump
administration, they have grown nervous about the outlook for the
eurozone.
Illustrating the concerns, Germany's economy has lost momentum
since late 2017, and recent economic data signal that it won't
accelerate further in the near term.
The country's manufacturing orders--an indicator of future
production--dropped 4.0% in June compared with May led by a 5.9%
drop in demand from outside the eurozone.
The VDMA industry group warned Monday that companies are feeling
the pinch from Turkey's currency crisis, with the lira down more
than 70% compared with the euro since the start of 2018. German
plant and machinery exports to Turkey fell 4.7% in January through
May compared with the same period in 2017, according to the VDMA,
which expects the negative trend to continue.
Although Turkey is not among Germany's largest trading partners,
a fully fledged crisis could still hurt business confidence and
bank lending in the eurozone, economists said.
Write to Nina Adam at nina.adam@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 14, 2018 02:56 ET (06:56 GMT)
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