BOND REPORT: Rates For Japan, U.S. Government Bonds Rise Amid Expectations For BOJ Policy Shift
July 23 2018 - 11:37AM
Dow Jones News
By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch , Sunny Oh
U.S. government bonds rose early Monday, while Japanese
government bonds sold off, marking their biggest one-day rate move
for the 10-year in about two years, amid a report that the Bank of
Japan was considering ways to make its stimulus program more
sustainable.
What is the market doing?
The Japanese 10-year bond yield jumped to 0.83% from 0.32% on
Monday. That marked its largest one-day yield move in about two
years, according to WSJ Market Data Group.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 4.1 basis points
to 2.934%, after seeing its largest one-day yield rise since May 18
on Friday. That move helped the benchmark debt instrument register
a weekly rise of 6.4 basis points, representing the steepest weekly
climb also since May 18.
The 30-year bond yield jumped 4 basis points to 3.070%, after
notching its largest one-day jump since May 15. The so-called long
bond saw a weekly yield rise of 9.7 basis points, representing its
largest weekly climb since the period ended May 18.
Meanwhile, the 2-year note yield rose 1.3 basis points to
2.612%.
Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
What's driving Treasurys?
A surge in Japanese bond yields were the main story in early
action Monday after Reuters reported
(https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-exclusive/exclusive-boj-to-debate-policy-change-in-july-to-make-its-stimulus-sustainable-sources-idUKKBN1KA1X3)
that the BOJ would debate changes to its stimulus program to combat
stubbornly low inflation in the region. The BOJ has been
maintaining a "yield curve control" policy to hold its 10-year
yield at around 0%.
Expectations for less accommodative monetary policy from the BOJ
also helped to inspire selling in Treasurys. Analysts have pointed
the finger at the likes of the European Central Bank and the Bank
of Japan for keeping U.S. bond yields low, as low interest rates in
major overseas economies have pushed investors out of their
domestic bond markets into higher-yielding U.S. debt.
The Reuters report, citing people familiar with central bank's
thinking, signaled that the Japanese central bank, led by Gov.
Haruhiko Kuroda, might make its first tweaks to monetary policy
since 2016. Those changes, which could come as soon as next week's
policy meeting, may include shifts in its inflation target, which
has been around 2%, and its stock-buying program. The BOJ next
releases its policy update on July 31
(http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm/).
Yields on the 10-year Japanese bond jumped on the news, marking
its steepest surge since around 2016. At the same time, the Nikkei
225 index tumbled 1.3%, with the Japanese yen yen strengthening
against the dollar to Yen111.32, compared against Yen111.44 late
Friday in New York.
What did market participant say?
"The recent news that the BOJ is mulling some changes to its
aggressively accommodative monetary policy, including some moves
recently to taper its buying activity at the longer end of the JGB
curve, saw the 10-year yield there gap up nearly 5 basis points,"
wrote David Rosenberg, chief economist for Gluskin Sheff, in a
Monday note, referring to the abbreviation widely used by bond
traders referencing Japanese benchmark bonds.
"This is a really big move--biggest in two years--with some
serious global implications if sustained, given what a huge
exporter of capital Japan has been over the years due to its
artificially suppressed government bond market," said
Rosenberg.
What else is on investors' radar?
Meanwhile, Wall Street investors have been watching President
Donald Trump's recent tweets with Iran, where the president warned
Tehran not to threaten the U.S. Washington pulled out of an
international nuclear pact forged in 2015 with the Middle Eastern
oil exporter in recent weeks and sanctions against Iran are slated
to be reimposed Aug. 6.
Trump's sternly word admonishment to Tehran leaders follow a
series of potentially market-impacting statements from the
president challenging monetary policy domestically and
internationally as his administration remains locked in a testy
dispute with trade partners in North America, China and Europe. On
Friday, Trump again tweeted
(https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1020290163933630464)
that unfair tariff arrangements deals have put the U.S. at a
disadvantage with its allies.
On the data front, the Chicago Fed national activity index
logged a positive reading of 0.43 in June
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-fed-national-economic-indicator-helped-by-factory-sector-snapback-2018-07-23),
from a negative 0.45 the previous month. The National Association
of Realtors said existing-home sales came in at a 5.38 million
annual pace in June.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 23, 2018 11:22 ET (15:22 GMT)
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