By Shen Hong and Mike Bird
Chinese stocks on Tuesday logged their steepest declines since
trade tensions between the U.S. and China began simmering, sending
stocks around the world sharply lower and marking a turning point
in markets' reaction to the escalating trade war.
Stocks fell Tuesday after President Donald Trump asked for $200
billion in Chinese exports to be identified for a fresh round of
tariffs. Any further response from Beijing would lead to yet more
American tariffs, according to Mr. Trump.
Trade tensions have been a major focus for investors this year.
But the latest escalations suggest that investors have
underestimated the willingness of the world's two largest economies
to retaliate against one another, analysts said.
Rather than de-escalation, some analysts predict the situation
will worsen -- stoking further market volatility -- in the run up
to the implementation of an earlier round of U.S. tariffs, on July
6.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 1.4% ahead of the
U.S. open. The export-heavy German DAX index fell by 1.7%, despite
a 0.6% drop in the euro, a move that would usually support stocks
with large international revenues, demonstrating how concerns about
trade are driving international markets.
Chinese shares were hit hardest, falling to their lowest level
in nearly two years, as investors dumped everything from large
insurers to small tech firms.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index plunged 3.8% to 2907.82,
its lowest since June 22, 2016, marking its worst single-day
performance since Feb. 9 when Chinese stocks were caught up in a
world-wide selloff.
"We think the risk of a trade war is becoming much higher at
this stage. In particular, the risk of misjudgment on both sides
looks high," said Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P.
Morgan.
The Shenzhen-based ChiNext board, where most of China's most
promising tech firms are listed, finished down 5.8%, its biggest
one-day slide since June 13, 2016.
The trade tensions also pressured the Chinese yuan: It fell 0.9%
to 6.4710 against the U.S. dollar in onshore trading, its lowest
level in five months and its biggest one-day drop since Feb. 8.
Earlier this year, many investors had hoped that any tariffs
applied would be limited in scope or that both sides would
eventually back away from their announced restrictions.
"It's mainly the trade war that has created such panic in the
market because the latest developments have surpassed the
expectations of many people in China," said Zhang Gang, senior
analyst at Central China Securities.
The U.S. last week applied tariffs on $50 billion worth of
imports from China. On Saturday, Beijing targeted high-value
American exports by expanding its list of U.S. products targeted by
tariffs from 106 to 659 types of goods.
It is "highly unlikely" that sufficient progress will be made by
the two governments to limit the tariffs ahead of July 6, UBS
economist Tao Wang said.
As the talk moves from rhetoric to action, the effects will
continue to spread across markets, analysts say.
Export-focused firms were hit hardest in Europe Tuesday, with
the Industrial goods and services sector and the autos and parts
sectors of the Stoxx 600 index down 1.6% and 1.7% respectively.
U.S. Treasury yields could also be hit, according to Lauréline
Chatelain, fixed income strategist at Pictet Wealth Management.
"Importantly, the Fed could be forced to pause its hiking cycle.
In this scenario, it would be more important to watch the impact of
tariffs on U.S. payrolls and business confidence," she said in a
research note.
10-year Treasury yields declined to 2.88% Tuesday after closing
at 2.926% Monday.
These tensions were reflected in commodities.
Iron ore futures traded in Dalian fell 4.6% while rubber futures
in Shanghai were off 5.7%. Chicago-traded soybean futures were last
down 2.7%, London Metal Exchange copper futures fell 1.9%. There
was one relative winner: Chinese soybean meal futures jumped 3.6%
in response to Beijing's announcement last Friday that it plans to
impose tariffs on U.S. imports of soybeans.
The rising concerns over global trade come amid other negative
notes for global markets. The synchronized global growth that had
sent markets rallying appears to have ended amid signs of a
slowdown in Europe. Political risk in Europe is also on the
rise.
Aggravating the impact in China are signs that Beijing remains
committed to its campaign to reduce the country's high debt load
and leverage in financial markets.
China's total debt could reach nearly 250% of its gross domestic
product by the end of this year, according to S&P Global
Ratings, up from 170% in 2012.
"It's very easy for Chinese stocks to fall on a day like this
because we have close to 90 million, emotionally very fragile
retail investors," said Honglin Gu, a retail investor from the
eastern Jiangsu province. "Herd mentality works the best
here.".
Write to Shen Hong at hong.shen@wsj.com and Mike Bird at
Mike.Bird@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 19, 2018 08:47 ET (12:47 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.