Fed Rebuke Costs Wells Fargo About $27 Billion in Lost Market Value -- Update
February 05 2018 - 3:20PM
Dow Jones News
By Emily Glazer
Wells Fargo & Co. struggled Monday to retain the confidence
of investors who dumped the stock after the Federal Reserve cast it
into a regulatory purgatory and limited the bank's ability to grow
its business.
Shares slumped more than 8% as analysts ratcheted down earnings
estimates for the third largest U.S. bank by assets. The selloff --
which cut around $27 billion from Wells Fargo's market value -- was
especially painful given the outlook for banks has brightened over
the past year thanks to stronger economic growth, rising rates and
lighter regulation.
Since the start of the year, Wells Fargo's shares have lost
nearly 4%, while its biggest peers have gained between 1% and 6%.
Meanwhile, the bank's price/earnings multiple has fallen below that
of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp.
The challenge now facing Wells Fargo was on display Friday night
in an analyst call held less than two hours after the Fed announced
an unprecedented enforcement action and said the bank would replace
four board directors by year-end. CEO Timothy Sloan said five times
on the call that the bank is "open for business."
His insistence underscored for investors how hobbled the bank is
and the fact that Wells Fargo has yet to move past the
sales-practices scandal that engulfed it nearly 18 months ago.
Under the Fed's Friday order, Wells Fargo is barred from growing
past the roughly $1.95 trillion in assets it had at the end of
2017.
Wells Fargo in its presentation to analysts Friday night said
that it expected the Fed action to reduce 2018 after-tax profit by
between $300 million and $400 million.
Such a reduction comes at an inopportune time for Wells Fargo.
Over the past three quarters, the bank's net interest income has
fallen. At the same time, the bank has been in the midst of an
effort to cut $4 billion in annual costs by 2019.
In the wake of the Fed's growth cap, half a dozen analysts on
Monday cut estimates for 2018 earnings per share to an average of
$4.71 from a previous average of $4.83. Some of those analysts
trimmed forecasts for 2019 earnings to an average of $5.16, down
from an average of $5.40.
KBW bank analyst Brian Kleinhanzl, for example, downgraded Wells
Fargo to "market perform" from "outperform" and lowered his 2018
earnings per share estimates to $4.70 from $4.90 and for 2019 to
$5.10 from $5.45. "The bottom line is that the [Fed] order will
mean Wells will have a harder time maintaining market share and
will have to compete more on price or credit terms versus peers,"
he wrote.
Gerard Cassidy, an RBC Capital bank analyst, also voiced
competitive concerns, writing that "existing customers could be
pried away from the company by aggressive competitors." He added
that given a positive outlook for the banking industry, investors
would be better off owning JPMorgan, Bank of America or Citigroup
Inc., which "will be able to harness the growth of the U.S.
economy."
Wells Fargo executives said Friday that they would use a series
of financial maneuvers to limit certain activities so the bank
won't have to deny business to its large consumer base. But certain
commercial customers could get squeezed.
For instance, the bank may reduce certain commercial deposits
known as "nonoperational," of which it had around $200 billion as
of the end of 2017. That is a tactic JPMorgan used to lower its
asset size a few years ago.
Wells Fargo may also limit financial institutions' deposits,
which tallied $149 billion at year-end 2017. And it could also
reduce its $92 billion in trading assets and $91 billion in
short-term investments as of Dec. 31, 2017.
Some analysts were more sanguine. AB Bernstein John McDonald
wrote Monday that the growth cap will be manageable because Wells
Fargo "was already planning to continue shrinking...auto and
home-equity loans." He estimates the two noncore portfolios will
decline by about $15 billion this year, "creating additional
flexibility" for the bank.
Overall, Mr. McDonald said he expects the impact of the Fed
moves to go away by next year. He added the growth cap hadn't
altered his view of the bank significantly, but he had been
modeling just 1% loan growth in 2018.
Investors were taken aback by the Fed's action and the fact the
bank hasn't fully overcome the sales-practices scandal. Still, many
were holding on.
Shareholder David Katz said the Fed's action is "sending another
message to Wells that they've got to be more aggressive in getting
their act together." But he said he was confident in the bank's
approach to how it can "meet all the needs" of clients and manage
the balance sheet.
Mr. Katz, who is president and chief investment officer at New
York-based Matrix Asset Advisors Inc. that owns around 480,000
Wells Fargo shares, said the firm plans to hold its current
position.
"I'm not happy about it," shareholder Bill Smead said of the
bank's growth restrictions. But Mr. Smead, CEO of Seattle-based
Smead Capital Management, also wasn't planning to sell any of his
firm's roughly $78 million worth of Wells Fargo shares because "we
haven't been losing money while we waited [for the bank to
recover]...it's just been on a continuous march."
Write to Emily Glazer at emily.glazer@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 05, 2018 15:05 ET (20:05 GMT)
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