U.S. Consumer Sentiment Pulled Back in November -- Update
November 22 2017 - 11:48AM
Dow Jones News
By Ben Leubsdorf
A measure of U.S. consumer sentiment pulled back in November
from a 13-year high, signaling solid economic optimism headed into
the holiday shopping season.
The University of Michigan on Wednesday said its
consumer-sentiment index was 98.5 in November, up from a
preliminary reading of 97.8. It was down from October's 100.7,
which was its highest level since January 2004.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a
final November reading of 98.0.
Gauges of business and household confidence jumped following
last year's presidential election and remained high this year.
Economic growth has been solid for much of 2017 and the
unemployment rate fell in October to 4.1%, its lowest level in
nearly 17 years. The stock market also has hit new records.
"In contrast to the media buzz about approaching cyclical peaks
and an aging expansion, with the implication of greater uncertainty
about future economic trends, consumers have voiced greater
certainty about their expectations for income, employment and
inflation," said Richard Curtin, the Michigan survey's chief
economist.
An index tracking current economic conditions fell to 113.5 in
November from 116.5 in October. A separate index tracking
expectations about the future was down to 88.9 from October's 90.5.
Both measures, however, were up this month compared with a year
earlier.
Wednesday's report contained mixed signals on household
expectations for future inflation. In November, consumers said they
expected 2.4% annual inflation in five to 10 years, ticking down
from 2.5% the prior three months. But the expectation for inflation
over the next year ticked up to 2.5% from 2.4% in October.
The Federal Reserve aims for 2% annual inflation as measured by
the Commerce Department's personal-consumption expenditures price
index, but actual price growth has undershot that target for most
of the past half-decade. The PCE index rose 1.6% in September from
a year earlier, while prices excluding food and energy were up a
more modest 1.3%.
The Fed is widely expected to raise short-term interest rates
when officials next gather in mid-December. But some policy makers
have increasingly expressed concern about the persistence of
sluggish price growth this year.
"We expect [inflation] to move back up over the next year or
two, but I will say I'm very uncertain about this," Fed Chairwoman
Janet Yellen said Tuesday at New York University's Stern School of
Business.
Write to Ben Leubsdorf at ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 22, 2017 11:33 ET (16:33 GMT)
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