GOP Gears Up for Tax-Overhaul Push
October 20 2017 - 5:59AM
Dow Jones News
By Richard Rubin
WASHINGTON -- Now that the Senate and House have both passed
their own 2018 budgets, the sprint to write a major tax bill is
on.
Republicans hope to finish a bill by year-end. The budget's
passage in both houses allows Republicans to pass a tax bill with
just 50 votes in the Senate, but they still have a lot of work to
do. Here is a look at what happens now:
Budget Deal
The Senate and House must first agree on the same document. Two
big differences stand in the way.
First, the Senate budget allows for tax cuts that reduce
revenues and increase deficits by $1.5 trillion over a decade; the
House version calls for a revenue-neutral tax bill that doesn't
increase deficits.
Second, the House budget ties $203 billion in spending cuts and
other deficit-reducing ideas to make room for tax cuts. The Senate
budget has just one such offset, which generates federal revenue by
allowing the opening of Alaskan land to oil production.
At first, it looked like negotiations to reconcile those
conflicting positions would take a week or two. But senators and
House members were working on a deal under which the House could
vote next week without the need for a formal House-Senate
conference committee. That would expedite the process of moving a
tax bill.
The budget, which President Donald Trump doesn't need to sign,
allows Congress to use fast-track reconciliation procedures. Those
allow the Senate to pass a bill with a simple majority and not with
a 60-vote threshold that would require Democratic votes.
House Tax Bill
Rep. Kevin Brady (R., Texas), the top House legislator, says
that once the budget deal is delivered, his panel will release its
tax bill. That proposal will fill in many of the blank spaces in a
framework Republicans released in September.
It will spell out exactly what House Republicans plan to do with
state and local tax deductions, child tax credits and other points
of contention. It will also show income cutoffs for various tax
brackets, giving Americans a chance to calculate their tax bill
under the new plan.
For businesses, it will show which companies qualify for a
special 25% rate for "pass-through" businesses such as partnerships
and S-corporations and will spell out which tax breaks go away.
Those details will stir disagreement among interest groups and
House members. The Ways and Means Committee, where Republicans have
a 24-16 edge, will consider amendments and vote on the bill. Then
it heads to the House floor, where Republicans can lose 22 members
at most. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R., Wis.) has said a tax bill
could pass the House by early November.
Senate Tax Bill
The Senate Finance Committee will release its own tax plan.
Lawmakers expect it to be different from the House version, though
it isn't clear how far apart they will be.
In the committee, Republicans have a 14-12 edge, meaning the GOP
will have to find a way to keep all its members on board. For now,
votes from Democrats aren't likely.
Democrats on the committee say Mr. Trump supports some of their
principles -- for example, a focus on the middle class instead of
tax cuts for high-income households -- but that the plans so far
haven't backed that up that specific objective.
Republicans have slightly more room to maneuver on the Senate
floor, where they can lose two members and still pass a bill. But
that may be a challenge: Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.) has called for
significant tax cuts even if they increase budget deficits, Sen.
Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) has pledged not to increase the budget
deficit, and Sens. Mike Lee (R., Utah) and Marco Rubio (R., Fla.)
are seeking bigger child tax credits that aren't in the Republican
plan so far.
Democrats can offer unlimited amendments on the Senate floor,
putting them in a position to drag out voting and write proposals
that could peel off Republicans, such as increasing child tax
credits in exchange for higher taxes on millionaires. It was on the
Senate floor that Republicans' health-care plans fell apart this
year, when they couldn't get 50 senators to agree on any particular
plan.
Conference and President
Once the House and Senate have each passed their tax bills, they
will have to bridge any differences, presumably in a House-Senate
conference. Then the Senate and House will vote again and send the
measure to President Trump for his signature.
Write to Richard Rubin at richard.rubin@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 20, 2017 05:44 ET (09:44 GMT)
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