CURRENCIES: Dollar Turns Higher As Consumer-confidence Reading Boosts Stocks
March 28 2017 - 3:45PM
Dow Jones News
By Joseph Adinolfi, MarketWatch , Rachel Koning Beals
Fed's Fischer says he expects 2 more rate hikes in 2017
The dollar strengthened against its main rivals on Tuesday after
consumer confidence in March soared to its highest level in more
than 16 years, helping to send Treasury yields and stocks
higher.
The Conference Board said it Consumer Confidence Index leapt to
125.6 in March from 116.1 in February, surpassing economists'
expectations for a 114.1, according to a survey conducted by
MarketWatch
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-soars-in-march-to-best-reading-in-16-years-2017-03-28).
Its reading helped allay fears about sluggish economic growth in
the first quarter, suggesting that the apparent weakness in
consumer spending during the first quarter will prove short-lived,
according to Capital Economics. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is
presently projecting gross-domestic-product growth of just 1%
during the first quarter.
The euro fell to $1.0811 late Tuesday in New York, compared with
$1.0864 late Monday, while the dollar climbed to Yen111.10 late
Tuesday, compared with Yen110.66 late Tuesday.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer also helped
support the greenback by saying during an interview with CNBC
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-fischer-forecasts-two-more-interest-rate-hikes-this-year-2017-03-28)
that he expects the Fed to raise rates at least two more times this
year. Two more rate hikes in 2017 seem "about right, that is my
forecast," Fischer said.
Several other Fed officials, including Chairwoman Janet Yellen,
also delivered public remarks on Tuesday, but the market
participants mainly focused on Fischer's comments.
Earlier, the dollar had weakened as investors questioned whether
President Donald Trump would be able to garner enough support among
fractious congressional Republicans to pass tax cuts and
infrastructure spending.
The dollar shot higher after Trump's upset victory in the Nov. 8
U.S. election, thanks in part to the perception that his promised
fiscal-stimulus measures would bolster growth and inflation,
allowing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more
quickly.
But the greenback has erased some of those gains since the
beginning of the year as investors bet that the market was too
quick to price in the potential economic impact of Trump's
policies. Typically, higher interest rates, or the expectation that
rates will rise, will cause a currency to strengthen by increasing
the return on assets denominated in it.
Last week, House Republicans withdrew a plan to repeal and
replace Obamacare amid opposition from conservatives and some
centrists within their own party, shaking investor confidence in
Trump's ability to gain passage of other parts of his agenda.
"The market is still wondering if, given the concerns about the
deficit and debt, Trump will be able to get support for a
significant amount of fiscal stimulus," said Jane Foley, senior
currency strategist at Rabobank.
The ICE Dollar Index , which gauges the dollar's strength
against a basket of six rival currencies, rose 0.6% to 99.72. U.S.
stocks turned higher, too, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on
track to snap an eight-day losing streak.
The Fed raised interest rates two weeks ago and is expected to
hike rates at least two more times, according to the central bank's
projections. However, the dollar sold off following the decision as
investors were disappointed by the Fed's reluctance to signal a
faster pace of rate increases.
The Fed-funds futures market are currently pricing in two more
rate increases by December and higher interest rates are usually
supportive of the dollar.
The British pound weakened against the dollar as the Scottish
parliament voted to hold a second independence referendum, granting
first minister Nicola Sturgeon the authority to negotiate with
Westminster on holding another vote.
Investors are also bracing for the U.K. government to officially
invoke Article 50, a decision that's expected Wednesday. The move
would formally begin negotiations between the U.K. and European
Union over the terms of the former's exit from the trading bloc.
The pound traded at $1.2456 late Tuesday in New York, compared with
$1.2559 late Monday.
In other currency trading, the South African rand sank for a
second session in a row after Bloomberg News reported that
President Jacob Zuma told several of his political allies that he's
considering firing popular Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. The
rand traded at 13 to the dollar late Tuesday in New York, compared
with 12.74 late Monday in New York.
Read:South Africa's currency, stocks plunge as finance minister
clashes with president
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/south-africas-currency-stocks-plunge-as-finance-minister-clashes-with-president-2017-03-27)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 28, 2017 15:30 ET (19:30 GMT)
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