Eurozone Economy Moves Into Higher Gear
February 21 2017 - 5:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Paul Hannon
The eurozone's modest economic recovery gained some fresh
momentum in February, despite heightened uncertainty about future
policies ahead of a series of key elections across the currency
area.
IHS Markit Tuesday said its composite Purchasing Managers Index
for the eurozone's manufacturers and service providers, which is
based on a survey of 5,000 companies, rose to 56.0 in February from
54.3 in January, reaching its highest level since April 2011. The
jump was unexpected, with economists surveyed by The Wall Street
Journal last week having forecast a slight drop in the measure. A
reading above 50.0 signals an increase in activity, while a reading
below signals a decline.
The pickup seems set to continue over coming months, as new
orders flowed in at the fastest pace in six years, while businesses
hired additional workers at a rate not seen since before the
financial crisis, in August 2007.
"The eurozone economy moved up a gear in February," said Chris
Williamson, IHS Markit's chief business economist. "With inflows of
new orders also surging and firms becoming even more optimistic
about the year ahead, growth could even lift higher in coming
months."
Mr. Williamson said that in the past, a composite PMI at the
February level was correlated with quarter-to-quarter economic
growth of 0.6%. If that were to be the outcome for the first
quarter, it would mark an acceleration from the 0.4% rate of
expansion recorded in each of the third and fourth quarters of
2016.
Germany and France--the eurozone's two largest members--both
recorded significant pickups during the month. The composite PMI
for France reached its highest level since May 2011, a sign the
economy continues a recent revival as presidential elections
near.
The leading candidates have built their programs around a
rejection of incumbent President François Hollande's economic
policies after years of weak growth and high unemployment.
The front-runner, pro-business and pro-European centrist
Emmanuel Macron, has indicated he would concentrate on loosening
labor laws to tackle unemployment. National Front leader Marine Le
Pen, who polls show losing to Mr. Macron in the second round May 6,
has a more radical plan: Pull France out of the euro and abandon
the constraints of EU fiscal discipline. The conservative candidate
François Fillon says he would implement a deep austerity program
coupled with tax cuts for business and tax increases for
consumers.
But uncertainty about which of these diverse programs will be
implemented doesn't appear to have daunted French businesses, and
the same appears to be true of other countries that face key votes
later this year, including Germany.
The surveys of purchasing managers also found that businesses
raised their prices at the fastest pace since July 2011, a boost
for the ECB as its struggles to lift inflation toward its target of
just under 2% after almost four years of falling short.
Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 21, 2017 05:14 ET (10:14 GMT)
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