CURRENCIES: Dollar Hovers Near 4-month High Ahead Of Fed, BoJ Meetings
July 25 2016 - 1:01PM
Dow Jones News
By Ellie Ismailidou, MarketWatch , Hiroyuki Kachi
Investors are expected to largely sit on the sidelines before
central bank meetings
The dollar on Monday hovered near the four-month high as
investors braced for monetary-policy decisions by the Federal
Reserve and the Bank of Japan later this week.
Though the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady
at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday, the anticipation of
a more hawkish U.S. central bank appeared to be behind the dollar's
recent strength, analysts said.
"It is finally sinking in that domestic fundamentals in the U.S.
are painting a better picture of the economy than what we saw
post-Brexit and even pre-Brexit," said Juan Perez, a currency
trader at Tempus Inc., referring to the U.K.'s June 23 vote to
leave the European Union.
Recent economic data, including an upbeat reading of U.S.
manufacturing released Friday, "cemented the idea that the dollar's
strength has reasons behind it--it's not just speculation, but
rather the difference in economic fundamentals between the U.S. and
the EU," Perez said.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index , a measure of the buck's strength
against a basket of six rival currencies, pulled back slightly to
97.34, from 97.37 late Friday. The index traded as high as 97.57 in
European trading hours, its highest level since March 10, according
to FactSet data.
The greenback inched lower against the yen, as investors were
reluctant to move aggressively ahead of the monetary policy
meetings in the U.S. and Japan later this week.
The U.S. dollar fetched Yen105.99 in recent action, compared
with Yen106.15 late Friday in New York. The euro was changing hands
at Yen116.38, slightly higher than Yen116.50 late Friday.
The greenback briefly touched a high of Yen106.74 in Asian
trade, suggesting strong appetite among Japanese importers and
other corporate players for dip buying of the dollar for regular
commercial trade settlement, but later pulled back.
J.P. Morgan, which expects a further cut in rates and increased
asset purchases by the Bank of Japan, said in a note that the
dollar will likely follow a pattern of "buy the rumor, sell the
news," against the yen.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan noted that when the BOJ decided to stand
pat in March and June, the dollar fell 0.8% and 1.7%, respectively
against the yen. Most traders had expected the central bank to
stand pat on both those occasions.
J.P. Morgan said the monetary action alone may not be enough to
pull down the yen, particularly as Japan's trade surplus is staring
to widen. Moreover, a mere conventional easing won't deliver any
kind of positive surprise, it said.
Overall, investors are expected to largely sit on the sidelines
before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 26-27 and
the BOJ's policy setting meeting on July 28-29.
Read:Wall Street braces for feeding frenzy of earnings,
central-bank action
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-braces-for-feeding-frenzy-of-earnings-central-bank-action-2016-07-23)
"There's no aggressive buying ahead of the events this week. It
seems profit-taking was kicking in, as Tokyo stocks weakened," said
Yuzo Sakai, manager of FX business promotion at Tokyo Forex &
Ueda Harlow.
"We would see similar moves again tomorrow," Sakai said. "But
many investors seem to have been hesitant to sell (the safety of)
the yen," given recent uncertainties such as a shooting in Germany
last week, said Sakai.
Investors shrugged off the Group of 20 finance ministers and
central bankers meeting over the weekend which redoubled their
commitments to use all available policy tools to boost economic
growth.
Read: Europe's problems eclipse China on G-20's agenda
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/europes-problems-eclipse-china-on-g-20s-agenda-2016-07-24)
The G-20 also reiterated its commitment to avoid using exchange
rates to gain a competitive advantage and to consult closely on
exchange-rate policy.
In other currency trade pairs, the euro inched higher at $1.0985
from $1.0976 late Friday.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 25, 2016 12:46 ET (16:46 GMT)
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