S&P Strips U.K. of Triple-A Credit Rating -- 3rd Update
June 27 2016 - 4:04PM
Dow Jones News
By Maria Armental
Standard & Poor's Global Ratings stripped the U.K. of its
pristine triple-A credit rating on Monday, following through on its
warning that last week's vote to leave the European Union threatens
the country's constitutional and economic integrity.
The firm, which cut the country's ratings by two notches to
double-A, also said the vote for "remain" in Scotland and Northern
Ireland creates wider constitutional issues for the country as a
whole. S&P's ratings outlook is negative, which signals a
potential for additional downgrades.
The U.K.'s surprise decision to leave the EU has rattled stock,
currency and debt markets around the world, while also leading to a
political upheaval in the U.K.
S&P was the last of the so-called Big Three rating firms to
withdraw the U.K.'s triple-A rating. Its downgrade comes after
rival firm Moody's Investors Service changed its outlook on the
U.K.'s ratings to negative from stable on Friday, while affirming
them at Aa1, the second-highest level. Fitch Ratings has the U.K.
at an equivalent double-A-plus.
S&P had warned Friday that it was reviewing the ratings and
said it believed the vote to leave the EU would deter investment in
the economy, decrease demand for sterling reserves and put the
country's financial services sector at a disadvantage with other
financial centers.
A double-A rating places the U.K. in the same basket as Belgium
and France, but behind the likes of Germany, the Netherlands and
Australia, all of which retain the coveted triple-A grade from
S&P. The credit rater has the U.S. at double-A-plus, the
second-highest mark.
S&P, for its part, said it believes EU membership has helped
the U.K. economy attract more low-cost capital and skilled labor
and bolstered London's position as a global financial center,
boosting in turn the sterling as a reserve currency. However, the
sterling, whose value has collapsed in the aftermath of the
'Brexit' vote, could lose its reserve-currency status if central
banks move away from the currency. The sterling accounted for about
4.9% of central banks' foreign currency reserve holdings as of the
fourth quarter, according to International Monetary Fund data.
The U.K.'s economy, S&P noted, has expanded faster over the
past two years than almost all of the large European economies,
including Germany's.
"However, given the uncertainty and fall in investment tied to
the 'leave' vote, we are forecasting a significant slowdown in
2016-2019," the rating firm said, projecting gross domestic product
expansion to average 1.1% a year, down from its April forecast of
2.1%.
Pressure on the sterling, however, could help narrow the
import-export gap by weakening imports as economic growth
decelerates, the rating firm said, projecting current account
deficit to average 3.4% in 2016 to 2019, compared with its April
forecast of 4.5%.
In 2015, current account deficit accounted for 6.7% of GDP.
Write to Maria Armental at maria.armental@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 27, 2016 15:49 ET (19:49 GMT)
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