The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for India Fell in
August
PR Newswire
MUMBAI, India, Sept. 22, 2014
MUMBAI, India, Sept. 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --The Conference
Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for India declined 0.5
percent in August to 183.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent
increase in July and a 1.1 percent increase in June. Two of the
eight components contributed positively to the index in August.
"August's decline in the LEI follows five consecutive monthly
increases, and while the LEI still points to continued growth in
the second half of the year, the widespread weaknesses among the
components suggest the economy may be facing risks," said Jing
Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. "The service sector PMI
declined sharply for the second month in a row, and exports and
bank credit were both sluggish in August."
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added:
"The moderation in the monthly growth of the LEI over the last two
months could be the first sign of a longer-term weakening in the
upward momentum of the index, suggesting that optimism in the
economic outlook may be wearing off."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(R) (CEI) for
India, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2
percent in August to 203.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent
decline in July and a 0.5 percent decline in June. Two of the four
components contributed positively to the index in August.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic
indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI
components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual
indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to
show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for
India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for India was
launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index
has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of
India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia,
Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea,
Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(R) (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day
Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and
Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of
India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
For more information including full press release and technical
notes:
https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=13
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator
releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/
About The Conference Board
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with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2014 6-month
Jun Jul Aug Feb to Aug
Leading Economic Index 183.7r 184.2r 183.2p
Percent Change 1.1r 0.3r -0.5p 3.7
Diffusion 87.5 50.0 31.3 100.0
Coincident Economic Index 203.6p 203.4p 203.8p
Percent Change -0.5p -0.1p 0.2p 2.8
Diffusion 75.0 50.0 62.5 75.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
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