Verona Pharma Plc (VRNA) Options

Hi PW! Scripts will just tell us the trend - which is strong right now - but cannot give us the absolute #s...which are about 2.5x-3x the IMS script data. I think the company would consider a buyout at the right price - IMO $100 right now would be OK based on the trend and the upside is huge from there.

Thank you for your reply.

As to 1), will we learn of those higher revenues directly from Verona or indirectly via the weekly script info?

For 2), are the company's actions geared towards a take-out soon or later when more revenue sources are likely? or, will Glaxo and AZ jump the gun and go after Verona now that revenue is coming in strong for a sensational product?

Once again, thank you, Hoskuld.

I think there are 2 catalysts:

1. The continuous catalyst of higher and higher revenues and

2. Acquisition by Glaxo or AstraZeneca etc.

It will take a while for Bronchiectasis trial results but those will help, too.

Hoskuld, thanks for your post, to which I agree. What are the next catalysts for the stock ... or we wait until next year for Q4 and total 2024 numbers?

TYIA

Hi Powerwalker. These were great results. The actually scripts are much much higher than the IMS scripts indicate. This is trending to be a blockbuster by the end of next year. VRNA is going to be one of those big winners - and because it is now backed up by revenue, it is far less risky now from a PPS pov.

Verona Pharma Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-third-quarter-070000243.html

One has to like that October sales were HIGHER than Q3's.

Hoskuld, have you seen any numbers?

TYIA

All my best to you Roger. Noticed the earnings which is always on thursdays is now on Monday. Can't help but wonder if Ligand wants a bigger stake than just low single digit royalty on ohtuvayre. Though a takeout by azn is possible I think ligand all stock deal or 5 to 10% buy in is far more likely.

Roger, that will be great. God bless you and your family. Hopefully, you are among the new script numbers for next week.

Hopefully next week. Thanks for asking. 

Roger, thank you for the article. How is your pursuit to utilize ensifentrine going?

https://share.newsbreak.com/9lxcziaz

Happy to see this. 

Thank you, Hoskuld. Looking forward to next Monday, November 4th.

Did we know the next weekly oct 18 script info yet?

Sometimes it is difficult to say what option trades indicate - options are often part of hedging strategies. I am bullish on VRNA but these options sales/purchases could signify different expectations or similar expectations...who knows?

It looks as if someone (not me) is interested in the March 2025 $30 calls. There were 90 contracts traded yesterday and 40 today. Hope the buyer is right!

We should have 10/18 and 10/24 script data by then...

Thank you, Hoskuld.

Verona cc on 11/4 with Q3 stats ... hopefully, it is a good sign being first thing on a Monday morning. They are anxious to talk!

Yes - 324 week ending 10/11

Hoskuld, does that mean the scripts are over 300? Higher?

TYIA

Scripts are trending up strongly now - more than 3x 4 weeks ago.

IMO $70-$100 by the end of 2025.

All the best, Roger.

I sent message via its web site over the weekend asking about Marketing here in the States. I'll let you know when I hear back from them.

Still in process of getting it. Delay is on my end with my Dr. Should be resolved next month with new doc. I can tell you that Verona reached out to me almost immediately after my inquiry in August and have texted and emailed since. They have been very responsive. Very positive feelings about this company. 

So, Roger, are you using Ohtuvayre? If so, is it meeting your expectations? TYIA

Acaria Health is one of the fulfillment pharmacies. They are handling me.

Roger, Hoskuld has access to such data but did not specify the numbers. See post #214.

Do. you have a link to your info by any chance? Release,  conference,  etc? TIA

Thank you, Hoskuld, for the information.

Do you have any numbers to share ... and get some people excited. TYIA

Prescription fulfillment is finally accelerating. Buckle up.

That is great GB!

Saw your original post on VRNA. Sounded good. Decided to tag along. Glad I did.

Thks,

G. Brown

Someone certainly does not want this stock to go and stay above $28.

Got it - you meant pharmacies not pharmas (which are drug manufacturing companies.) Makes sense. I will actually check to see if ohtuvayre is at local CVS this week!

I can imagine you would be excited about this and I am really looking forward to hearing about your experience with it! Thanks for sharing!

Btw, I didn't say it wasn't going well. I said it takes time for any new drug given the logistics. I think they're doing a great job or i wouldn't have invested in them.

Checked out the drug with CVS and was told about specialty pharmas. I'm a COPD patient and respiratory therapist and have followed trials for quite a while and am delighted to try this drug. Was told the same thing by Verona when I signed up for the drug through the patient portal. I used to teach the mechanism of action of bronchodilators. Specifically C3-5AMP . Taught therapists, nurses, and many of the older physicians sat in for refresher.
Check with your pharmacist and see if it's available. I'd be interested in your findings.

They were already detailing 100 of the top 2,500 pulmonologists as of 2 weeks ago, and presumably are detailing ~20-25 more each week. The launch is already going well.

What did you mean by "speciality pharmas until then"?

I think it will be January b4 the roll out is complete. Specialty pharmas until then. Have patience, this drug will be a blockbuster with its double mechanism of action.

Hi PW - the company has said that they are looking to partner ohtuvayre in the EU and, as a part of that partnership, the partner would be responsible for developing an inhaler for ohtuvayre, too.

I agree that the company management seems sharp. And all newly launched products have issues - let's hope Verona is on top of the issues. I wrote IR and simply asked that they send me a note saying that my message was received and the responsible people at Verona are "on it".

Hoskuld, I listened to the quarterly cc and the Canaccord Genuity presentation and I came away with the impression that Verona management is on top of all matters: marketing, sales, and distribution. If there were a problem, it might be the pharmacies listing Ohtuvayre in their systems, given it is a new product and it needs to establish an ordering pattern for it.

Hoping the patient numbers are higher within a year.

Have you seen or heard any info on EMA and/or UK filings/approval?

Just following up on this...I can see ohtuvayre being the SOC. I think this will grow very, very swiftly.

A couple of pulmonologists on stocktwits describe issues with scripts that they have written being fulfilled. On the other hand, one of the pulmonologists is writing 5-6 scripts per day and the other seemed to be writing 2 per day. 5-6 per day = 1,000+ per year for one high-prescribing pulmonologist. And ~400 for a less aggressive prescriber. To me, those seem like promising numbers and point to hitting 60,000+ plus patients over the next year as being probable and NOT a stretch.

Luckily, we know the story here.

Not actually a "Hit" piece, but leaves negative impressions, anyway. Released earlier in late July ... must not have had the intended effect, so it tries again.

Top 3 Health Care Stocks That May Crash In August

https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40365322/top-3-health-care-stocks-that-may-crash-in-august

Glad you are making money here k9uwa! I think we will see this go much higher over the next couple of years. Would really like to get access to script data...

Hope everyone is buckled in and enjoying the ride. I Am Wishing I had put another zero onto my purchase on this one.
Thanks U and Guzzie
John k9uwa

Anyone have IMS / IQVIA script data access for Ohtuvayre? Has been a few weeks and this is doing exactly what it should do. Hope everyone is buckled in and enjoying the ride.

$VRNA COPD drug approved
- 1st-in-class neb PDE4 inhibitor
- antinflamm + b-dilator
- Clean, broad label, no restrictions
- Complements ICS LABA LAMA, doesn't compete
- Targets broad COPD population vs. narrow biologics like Dupixent
- Big Pharma (Boehringer, GSK) easy bolt-on addition to pipeline

$VRNA NEWS FDA Approval ~ Verona Pharma Announces US FDA Approval of Ohtuvayre™ (ensifentrine)
$VRNA NEWS FDA Approval ~ Verona Pharma Announces US FDA Approval of Ohtuvayre™ (ensifentrine)https://t.co/6gOmzKSwx2— 💸 Golden Cross Stocks 💸 (@CrossStocks) June 26, 2024

In 2021, Nuance Pharma entered into an agreement with Verona Pharma for the exclusive rights to develop and commercialize ensifentrine in Greater China. On April 6th 2023, Nuance Pharma announced first patient in (FPI) for the ENHANCE-China Phase III clinical trial.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nuance-pharmas-partner-verona-pharma-090700900.html

Should be good return here!