doinit
1 month ago
PTHRF,,PANR,,this from Oilman Jim
Pantheon Resources (PANR.L PTHRF P3K.F) announced results of the recent independent expert report by Cawley Gillespie & Associates. This completes the independent estimates for the company's aggregate resources from the Kodiak field, Ahpun western topsets and Alkaid horizon resulting in totals exceeding 1.5 billion barrels of ANS Crude and 6.5 trillion cubic feet of associated gas. As with Lee Keeling & Associates which recently updated its IER on the Alkaid horizon of the Ahpun field, CGA has evaluated the economics of the best estimate or 2C case. Based on an ANS Crude price of $80 per barrel delivered to the US West Coast, CGA estimates the net present value of the total contingent resources in the western topsets in the Ahpun field using a discount rate of 10% at $1.74 billion. Pantheon states it is targeting final investment decision at the earliest possible date subject to regulatory consents, but in any case to allow first production no later than 2028. Subsequent news was of a $3.36 million private placement to two existing long term shareholders at $0.364 per share.[color=red] The funding strategy was also addressed and the Gas Sales Precedent Agreement is said to open a potential path to funding to long term funding of post Ahpun first investment decision expenditures without further equity dilution.[/b] [/color]In the interim, the company estimates the funding up until the point of Ahpun FID is in the range $60 - $85 million. This includes US IPO preparation costs, hot-tap into the TAPS pipeline and the cost of drilling and testing the planned Megrez-1 well to assess the Ahpun East project area which the company estimates to contain a prospective resource of c. 609 million barrels of marketable liquids. The upper end of the cost range also includes the cost of drilling and testing an additional Ahpun appraisal well if required. Funding options presently under consideration include farm-out, equity, debt, hybrid and a US listing targeted for 2025. Pantheon believes a US listing is an important step into providing greater access to the US institutional investment community, and to enhance market depth and liquidity in the company's shares. I spoke with David Hobbs, Executive Chairman, last week and it sounds like he can pull this off
doinit
1 month ago
Pantheon Resources announced yesterday (11 June 2024) that Cawley Gillespie & Associates’ Initial 2C Resource Estimate for the Ahpun Topsets amounts to 282 million barrels of recoverable liquids (gross), consisting of 54% oil and 46% natural gas liquids (“NGLs”). Inclusive of 803.5 bcf of natural gas, the total 2C resource estimate for the Ahpun Topsets as estimated by Cawley Gillespie & Associates amounts to 416 million barrels of oil equivalent. We believe that the estimate is of interest in its own right and also because it completes the quantification of the resource estimates for Pantheon Resources’s core assets (Table 1). Therefore, we believe, yesterday’s announcement sets the scene for Pantheon Resources to elaborate a comprehensive developments strategy. Likewise, with this final piece of the puzzle quantified, we are now positioned to assess and provide, in due course, a view on the comprehensive value of Pantheon Resources.
doinit
2 months ago
PTHRF,,,EXPLOSIVE TRADING BEGINNING,,LOVE IT,,,FINALLY
doinit
2 months ago
PTHRF,,,PANR’s gas is pipline quality <3% co2 and is ready for wholesale without co2 stripping. It is this that puts PANR gas ahead of all other Nslope producers and puts PANR and the State (AGDC) in a symbiotic relationship.
This is huge commercial advantage over other Nslope producers who in order to qualify for pipeline access have a capital spend in the order of ~10b$ to build a carbon stripping plant. Furthermore PANR’s low co2 gas allows PANR to leverage a cheap gas offering with minimal treatment requirements to the state that actually turns the probability of the pipeline project on its head, with enough margin to get the project funded and built. I have previously posted an economic example (copied below).
Strategically this puts PANR ahead of other n/slope producers as the State needs PANR gas at no more than $1 per mmbtu to get this done. PANR and the State are bound at the hip which elevates PANR, a small AIM listed company to the top table, along side major O&G upstream but also top tier construction, international entities, Asian traders who deal in world LNG supply and distribution.
When the ripples of this hit the radar across industry, key stakeholders will want exposure to the upside of the project. Huge potential for a PANR re rate.
So, it’s not a case of ‘do PANR get to use the pipe first’?, PANR ARE THE PIPE - and allow the economics to work. I know that sounds ridiculous, - to be THE reason a global 40b$ lng project could ultimately go ahead, but it’s a fact. What does that do to a minnow like PANR? Shock and awe stuff, shock and awe.
The AlaskaLNG project is fully permitted at both Federal and State level as a whole. It awaits its FID for phase1 after the completion of FEED work scheduled to run for 1yr from July 2024.
My understand is that the AGDC need an investment of 50 m$ for FEED works, but investment partners looking at that require a firm commitment of offtake for the gas (Enstar and Nutrien)? and a producer to commit to long term supply contract with a price attached. We know PANR have given this assurance. The timeline for both the AGDC FEED decision and PANR’s full funding strategy is in sink (by July 2024) and one could argue the AGDC schedule is actually pegged to PANR development schedule with both FID for phase 1 pipeline and PANR Ahpun FID projects in summer 2025
With those commitments in hand the AGDC can work on phase 2 stakeholders. (AGDC announced this week the update with the Japanese consul to Alaska) and there’s plenty of anecdotal evidence of industry specialists ‘liking’ pantheon articles, obviously aware of the projects development. My hunch is heads of agreements for key project stakeholders are being put in place ahead of FEED decision this July with option agreements for phase 2.
Other developments from the Alaska legislature is House Bill 222 (HB222) which looks to allow the Alaskan Permanent Fund to invest for up to 25% of project funding. The State is gearing up for skin in the game, which is prudent as the below economic model shows huge IRR’s for the State, and they can put to bed the instate squabble over PFD cuts which are the yearly payments made to every Alaskan as a share of the states natural resources income, yr on yr income and payments for the state budgets are falling.
The destiny of State economic growth is in its own hands, and a no brainer (IMO) for the State to back its own infrastructure project.
And so the age of the symbiotic relationship between PANR and State begins …..