Earnings Preview: McCormick - Analyst Blog
September 26 2011 - 7:45AM
Zacks
McCormick & Co. Inc. (MKC) is scheduled to
announce its third quarter 2011 results on September 28, 2011, and
we don’t see any major estimate revisions at this point. Currently,
the Zacks Consensus Estimate is 65 cents per share and sales
estimate is $871 million.
Second Quarter Overview
McCormick’s second-quarter 2011 operating earnings of 55 cents a
share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by one penny. The
quarterly earnings benefited from higher operating income, as well
as cost savings.
Total revenue in the second quarter grew 11% year over year to
$883.7 million from the year-ago quarter, benefiting from
McCormick’s favorable volume, product mix and pricing actions taken
to curtail increased raw and packaging material costs. Revenue also
exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $855 million.
For fiscal year 2011, management reaffirmed its earnings per
share guidance in the range of $2.74 to $2.79, including the
estimated transaction costs related to recent announcements of an
acquisition and a joint venture. Sales are expected to grow 6 to 8%
in local currency, including 1% of incremental sales from Kohinoor
and Kamis. In addition, the sales impact of favorable currency
exchange rates is now estimated to be 2%.
Agreement with Analysts
The analysts expect McCormick to follow the trend of beating its
earnings estimates, as it has been doing for the last four
quarters. Though the analysts have not revised their estimates for
fiscal years 2011 and 2012, there is an upside trend in the current
quarter which justifies a positive sentiment on the stock.
Out of the 12 analysts providing estimates for the current
quarter, only one of them revised their estimates upwards over the
past 30 days. None of the analysts downgraded the stock. However,
for the fourth quarter of 2011, one of the 12 analysts downgraded
its estimates over the last 30 days, while none of the analysts
gave a positive signal.
For fiscal years 2011 and 2012, none of the analysts have raised
their estimates over the past 30 days. It means that analysts are
neutral about the long-term performance of McCormick.
The mixed trend indicates no clear directional movement for the
upcoming quarters and signifies that the analysts are circumspect
about the long-term trend earnings of the company.
Management believes that McCormick has strong operating income,
and is trying to save on increasing costs.
Magnitude of Estimate Revisions
Over the past 30 days, McCormick has increased its estimate by a
penny to 65 cents for the current quarter. However, the estimates
remain unchanged for the fourth quarter of 2011 at $1.02 per share.
The estimates also remain unmoved for fiscal year 2011 at $2.79 per
share and for fiscal 2012 at $3.12 per share.
McCormick has a significant presence in the international
market. The company’s consumer brands reach approximately 100
countries. The significant international presence has boosted its
growth, and we believe will continue doing so in the coming
years.
In addition, McCormick has made multiple acquisitions that have
contributed to growth. On September 12, McCormick consummated its
joint venture with Kohinoor Foods Ltd., India to market and sell
basmati rice and food products in India. The venture was announced
in June 2011 and will now be named as Kohinoor Specialty Foods
India Private Ltd.
McCormick had invested INR 5.2 billion ($113 million) in the
deal and commands an 85% interest in Kohinoor Specialty Foods India
Private Ltd. Going ahead, McCormick will also bear approximately $4
million of fees and other costs in the fourth quarter of 2011
related to the deal, which would reduce earnings by 3 cents per
share.
However, McCormick expects the joint venture sales to be
approximately $85 million in the first year, and will be accretive
to McCormick’s earnings per share in 2012.
McCormick also sealed the deal to acquire Kamis S.A., which is a
leader of spices, seasonings and mustard in Poland. McCormick said
it will record about $3 million by way of fees and other costs
related to the completion of the deal in the fourth quarter of
2011, which is expected to reduce earnings by 2 cents per share. In
addition, McCormick expects the business to add about 6 cents per
share to earnings of 2012.
Though the company has completed multiple acquisitions that have
expanded its product portfolio, we believe that such a strategy has
inherent risks. Additionally, the competitive nature of McCormick's
market is a matter of concern.
McCormick, which competes with ConAgra Foods,
Inc. (CAG) and Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT),
currently holds a Zacks #3 Rank translating into a short term
‘Hold’ rating. Over the long term, we provide a Neutral
recommendation on the stock.
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MCCORMICK & CO (MKC): Free Stock Analysis Report
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