SEATTLE, Oct. 20, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN)
— People moving out of California
to Arizona and Nevada—including
newly remote workers seeking more affordable homes—could play a
part in those swing states voting Democrat in this year's
presidential election, according to a new report from Redfin
(redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Wealthy
retirees moving from the Northeast to North Carolina and Florida could factor into potential Republican
victories in those states.
Arizona, where President Trump
won by a margin of roughly 91,000 votes in 2016, has gained 51,000
more registered Democrats than Republicans over the last four
years. Arizona has also added
49,000 voters registered with a party other than Democrat or
Republican—referred to as "other" throughout the rest of this
report—since the 2016 presidential election. That could benefit
Democrats because Independent voters—who make up a significant
portion of "other" voters—may be more likely to lean left this
year: Joe Biden is leading by a
31-point margin among Independents in Arizona, according to a recent poll, and he's
also leading among Independents in other states.
From January to April 2020, a time
period that spanned the Democratic primaries, the number of voters
registered as Independent declined by more than 52,800 while the
number of registered Democrats increased by nearly 48,500. That
suggests many Independents switched to Democrat, which could also
indicate that voters registered as "other" could be more beneficial
to Democrats.
The increase in the number of Democratic voters in Arizona and Nevada is likely due in part to people moving
in from liberal California, which
lost a net 200,000 more residents to other states in 2019, more
than any other state. Arizona saw
a net increase of roughly 91,000 residents move in from other
states in 2019, the third biggest net increase of any state.
Nevada added about 43,000 such
residents, seventh out of all states. Redfin expects the net
increase in 2020 to be even larger in both states.
Reno, Las Vegas and Phoenix were the most popular destinations for
people leaving California in 2018,
according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
"Arizona could vote for the
Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 1996, a
flip that would be partly due to migrants priced out of liberal
cities like San Francisco,
Los Angeles, Seattle and Chicago," said Redfin economist Taylor Marr. "Migration into Arizona has accelerated this year, with more
than 100,000 more new residents moving in than leaving for the
first time in at least a decade. The trend is becoming larger now
with the pandemic-driven work-from-home culture, which allows
people the freedom to relocate to a more affordable state where
they can find more spacious homes."
Nevada, which Hillary Clinton carried by 27,000 votes in 2016,
has gained 3,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans over
the last four years. The state also added 96,000 "other" voters,
made up mostly of a 73,000-person increase in Clark County (Las
Vegas) and an 11,500-person increase in Washoe County (Reno). Both counties voted Democrat in the
2016 presidential election.
Number of
registered voters who are Democrat or Republican in select states
(November 2016 - September
2020)
|
|
Change in
number
of voters registered
with a minor party
(other) since 2016
|
Change in
number
of Registered
Republicans since
2016
|
Change in
number
of Registered
Democrats since
2016
|
Difference in
change of
registered
Republicans and
Democrats, 2016-
2020
|
Arizona
|
+48,651
|
+150,346
|
+201,751
|
+51,405
Dems
|
Nevada
|
+96,363
|
+59,268
|
+61,986
|
+2,718
Dems
|
Florida
|
+319,074
|
+350,101
|
+253,337
|
+96,764
Reps
|
North
Carolina
|
+319,194
|
+47,275
|
-183,881
|
+231,156
Reps
|
Redfin's migration data shows a similar trend as the Census:
People leaving San Francisco
and Los Angeles for
Phoenix and Las Vegas
The Bay Area and Los Angeles are perennially two of the top 10
places Redfin.com home searchers are looking to leave—largely due
to expensive housing—while relatively affordable Phoenix and Las
Vegas tend to be the among the most popular destinations for
Redfin.com users. Los Angeles was
the most popular origin for people moving into both Phoenix and Las
Vegas in the second quarter.
More people migrate from blue (Democratic) to red (Republican)
counties than vice versa; 6.5% more Americans looked to move to red
and swing counties than to blue counties in the second quarter of
2020. The relative popularity of red and swing counties—which tend
to be suburbs, rural areas and small towns, versus the big cities
than make up blue counties—comes down largely to affordability: The
typical home in the blue Los
Angeles metro sold for $730,000 in September, versus $330,000 in the Phoenix metro (part of Maricopa County, which is a swing county).
"More people than ever are moving into Phoenix from expensive cities in California and Washington," said local Redfin agent
Thomas Wiederstein. "The pandemic
has been a big driver, as people who can suddenly work from home
are able to prioritize living in a place where they can get more
indoor and outdoor space for their money, along with sunny weather.
They seem to be a mix of conservative and liberal: Some of the
people moving in appreciate that Arizona has been a red state for a long time,
but others see the potential for a shift that seems to be on the
horizon."
As migrants move into Florida—where there's no state income
tax—and North Carolina, the states
see uptick in registered Republicans and "other" voters
The story is different on the East Coast, where movement from
New York and neighboring states to
Florida and North Carolina—partly
made up of retirees and remote workers following the sunshine and
affordability—could contribute to a Republican win in those swing
states. However, the picture in Florida and North
Carolina is murkier than Arizona and Nevada due to the role of "other" voters.
Florida, which President Trump
won by 113,000 votes in 2016, has added roughly 97,000 more
registered Republicans than Democrats in the last four years.
Florida also added 319,000 "other"
voters, with Miami-Dade County,
Palm Beach County, Broward County (Fort
Lauderdale), Polk County
and Orange County (Orlando) picking up the most. All but
Polk County voted Democrat in
2016.
"The uptick in 'other' voters in Miami and Orlando could be a boon for Democrats because
those cities are more liberal than other parts of Florida," Marr said. "People who move to
different areas often sort themselves by political views, with
people who lean liberal moving to liberal places and conservative
people moving to conservative places. That could mean 'other'
voters in places like Miami and
Orlando are more inclined to vote
Democrat than Republican."
Forty-two percent of U.S. residents said they would be hesitant
to move to an area where most residents have political views that
differ from their own, according to a Redfin survey of more than
3,000 people fielded in October. That's up from 38% in June 2019 and 32% in June
2020.
"The stream of retirees may be bigger than usual this year, as
some people opt to take early retirement or work from home ahead of
retirement due to the pandemic," Marr said. "There's some
speculation that people leaving liberal New York and neighboring states will bring
Democratic votes to southern swing states, and the big increase in
'other' voters may play into that theory. But the uptick in
registered Republicans suggests many of the migrants are
conservative people moving to more conservative places."
Parts of Florida and
North Carolina are typically some
of the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users looking to
relocate, with Tampa, Miami, and Charlotte among the top 10 places people were
looking to move during the second quarter.
"Many of the people migrating into Florida are wealthy retirees or people
approaching retirement age," said Wendy
Peterson, a Redfin real estate agent in Tampa. "A lot of people move to Tampa from Washington, D.C., New Jersey, New
York and the Midwest to avoid high taxes in those areas and
put their money in Florida real
estate. Since the start of the pandemic, we have seen a bump in
out-of-state people moving to Florida because many people are no longer tied
to brick-and-mortar offices."
North Carolina, where President
Trump won by a margin of about 173,000 votes in 2016, has gained
roughly 231,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the
last four years. But like Florida,
North Carolina also added 319,000
"other" voters, with the biggest upticks in Wake County (Raleigh), Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), Guilford
County (Greensboro) and
Forsyth County (Winston-Salem). All five of those counties
voted Democrat in 2016.
If people typically sort themselves by political views and move
to an area that's in line with their politics, there's reason to
believe "other" voters in Florida—and North Carolina—will vote
Democrat over Republican this year, making those states more
competitive than the uptick in registered Republicans suggests.
To view the full report, including charts and methodology,
please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/migration-politics-election-2020/
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a
technology-powered residential real estate company, redefining real
estate in the consumer's favor in a commission-driven industry. We
do this by integrating every step of the home buying and selling
process and pairing our own agents with our own technology,
creating a service that is faster, better and costs less. We offer
brokerage, iBuying, mortgage, and title services, and we also run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage search site, offering a host
of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate. We
represent people buying and selling homes in over 90 markets in
the United States and Canada. Since our launch in 2006, we have
saved our customers over $800 million
and we've helped them buy or sell more than 235,000 homes worth
more than $115 billion.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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SOURCE Redfin