In September, active inventory shrank on an
annual basis for the third month in a row, despite boost from
August's unseasonal bump in new listings
While home prices rose annually, a surprising
uptick in price-reduced homes from August to September reflects
last year's trend and offers some relief amid ongoing affordability
concerns
SANTA
CLARA, Calif., Oct. 5, 2023
/PRNewswire/ -- For the second month in a row, home prices rose on
an annual basis in September (+0.4%) as the inventory shortfall
lingers, with the number of homes on the market falling year over
year for the third consecutive month (-4.0%), according to the
Realtor.com® September Monthly Housing Trends Report
released today. Active inventory remained 45.1% below pre–pandemic
(2017-2019) levels, although the number of homes for sale increased
month-over-month (4.9%) in September, contrary to typical seasonal
trends but attributable to the unusual bump in new listings in
August.
This month, new listings realigned with typical declines between
August and September. However, despite persistent inventory
challenges bolstering prices, an unseasonable month-over-month
uptick in price reductions hints at potential market adjustments.
While a greater share of homes saw price reductions during the past
month than expected for this time of year, the percentage of homes
with price reductions decreased year over year, from 20.2% in
September of last year to 17.8% this year, and remains below
typical levels seen from 2017 to 2019. This suggests that buyer and
seller expectations aren't significantly misaligned, at least for
now.
"An uptick in homes with reduced prices is a small break for
buyers on top of the usual seasonal factors that align to make this
first week in October the best week to buy. Yet, the larger context
remains challenging. Buyers still struggle with the triple threat
of rising listing prices, record-high mortgage rates, and limited
inventory, making affordability a continued concern," said
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for
Realtor.com®. "The number of homes for sale is likely to
remain low as higher mortgage rates leave many homeowners feeling
'locked in' to their current rates. Data shows low inventory is
pushing many homebuyers toward new homes, but the growth in new
construction isn't enough to sufficiently narrow the inventory
gap."
What it means for homebuyers, sellers, and the housing
market
While the unexpected rise in new home listings from
July to August led to higher September inventory than typically
seen this time of year, homes are selling quickly, keeping overall
inventory limited. This scarcity has been a driving factor in
maintaining high listing prices.
Despite a greater share of homes with price reductions,
affordability headwinds continue: higher mortgage rates have
increased the monthly cost of financing 80% of the typical home by
roughly $256 (+12.4%) compared to a
year ago, far outpacing wage growth (+4.3%) and inflation
(+3.7%).
"Homes on the market are still moving quickly, indicating that
many buyers are accepting today's high prices and mortgage rates
and adjusting their expectations," said Realtor.com®'s
Executive News Editor Clare
Trapasso. "That may mean a number of things: settling for
less space or moving farther away from large cities or to a
different region."
To help determine their best next step, potential homebuyers can
tap into Realtor.com® RealCost tools, including the
Affordability Calculator or the Rent vs. Buy Calculator.
September 2023 Housing Metrics –
National
Metric
|
Change over Sep
2022
|
Change over Sep
2019
|
Median listing
price
|
+0.4% (to
$430,000)
|
+37.5 %
|
Active
listings
|
-4.0 %
|
-42.7 %
|
New listings
|
-9.1 %
|
-21.0 %
|
Median days on
market
|
+1 days (to 48
days)
|
-14 days
|
Share of active
listings with price
reductions
|
-2.5 percentage
points
(to 17.8%)
|
+0.3 percentage
points
|
Listing prices stay steady, but price cuts climb
uncharacteristically
In September, the national median home
listing price declined seasonally from August, but increased
slightly over September 2022, marking
the second month in a row that listing prices have increased on an
annual basis. Limited inventory has kept listing prices high, and
while new home sales are elevated, new construction hasn't
been able to fully address inventory constraints. Meanwhile,
although the share of price-reduced homes is down compared with
last September, month-over-month growth is beginning to mirror last
year's trend, with price cuts accelerating in the fall as high
listing prices and interest rates deter many buyers.
- While the U.S. median list price saw a seasonal monthly
decline, to $430,000 from
$435,000 in August, it is up +0.4%
compared to last year.
- All regions saw active listing prices in larger metros increase
on average, but Northeastern metros saw the highest annual growth
rate (+10.0%).
- Prices in Los Angeles
(+23.8%), San Diego (+18.2%), and
Richmond, Va.. (+15.0%) saw the
biggest increases among large metros, predominantly due to larger
and more expensive homes coming on the market in these areas.
Larger Southern metros saw the lowest listing price growth rate
among the regions (3.1%).
- Among the largest 50 metros, only eight saw their median list
price decline, led by San Antonio
(-2.8%), Memphis, Tenn. (-2.1%),
and Houston (-1.5%).
- Nationally, the share of homes with price reductions decreased
from 20.2% in September of last year to 17.8% this year and remains
below 2017-2019 levels on average.
Fourteen of the 50 large metros saw the share of price
reductions increase compared to last September, predominantly in
the South and Midwest. Memphis,
Tenn., saw the greatest increase (+6.0 percentage points),
followed by Indianapolis (+4.4),
and San Antonio (+3.4).
Inventory rises from August levels, yet remains
scarce
While newly listed homes showed an unusual increase
from July to August this year, higher mortgage rates and more
typical seasonality realigned inventory with the expected seasonal
decline from August to September. Year over year, the number of
homes actively for sale decreased on an annual basis in September
for the third consecutive month, following a period of growth
starting in April 2022. This can be
attributed in part to highly unseasonal inventory growth in 2022 as
the market slowed down late last summer and into fall. However, the
gap between this September and the same time last year is
narrowing, as inventory increased month over month on the heels of
an unexpected bump in new listings in August. Even so, active
inventory remained below typical 2017-2019 levels.
- Nationally, active inventory in September dropped -4.0%
year-over-year. Despite an increase in homes for sale from August
to September (+4.9%), active inventory remains -45.1% below
2017-2019 levels.
- Pending listings fell -12.2% from the same time last year, more
than August's -11.5% decline due in part to higher mortgage rates
in July and August, but significantly better than December's peak
decline (-36.9% year over year). Pending listings are an early
indicator of future sales, which slowed to an annual pace of 4.04
million in August.
- Newly listed homes fell -9.1% compared to September last year,
more than August's -7.5% year-over-year drop.
- Regionally, inventory grew slightly in the South, by 1.5%
compared to September 2022, but
declined year-over-year in the West (-27.7%), Northeast (-12.9%),
and Midwest (-6.9%).
- In the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, the number of homes for
sale is -41.9% below pre-pandemic levels. Inventory decreased in 36
out of 50 of the largest metros compared to last year, although
some Southern metros saw significant growth, such as Memphis, Tenn. (+35.6%), New Orleans (28.4%) and San Antonio (24.4%).
- Among the top 50 metros, San
Antonio (+4.4%), and Buffalo,
N.Y. (+2.1%) saw new listings increase. Declines in newly
listed homes were greatest in Las
Vegas (-31.7%), New York,
N.Y. (-23.6%) and Detroit,
Mich. (-21.9%).
Homes selling two weeks faster than pre-pandemic
period
While the time the typical home spent on the market
remained fairly flat year over year this September, the typical
home spent two weeks less on the market this past month than during
the average September from 2017 to 2019. Time on market is rising
more slowly this year, as homebuyers compete for limited
supply.
- In September, the typical home spent 48 days on the market,
only one day longer than the same time in 2022, but two weeks less
than in the average September between 2017 and 2019.
- Regionally, only large metros in the South saw time on market
increase on average year-over-year (+1 day). Large metros in the
Northeast spent 2 days less on the market, those in the Midwest
spent 3 days less on the market, and homes spent 4 days less than
last year in the West.
- Time on market increased in 17 of the 50 largest metros,
including New Orleans (+11 days),
Austin, Texas (+8 days), and
Nashville, Tenn. (+6 days).
- Time on market decreased compared to last year in 30 of the 50
largest metro areas. The largest drops were in San Jose, Calif., San Francisco (-9 days), and Sacramento, Calif. (-8 days). This is
primarily because this region experienced the most significant
slowdown last year when interest rates rose.
September 2023 Housing Overview
by Top 50 Largest Metros
Metro
Area
|
Median Listing
Price
|
Median Listing Price
YoY
|
Median Listing Price
per Sq. Ft. YoY
|
Active Listing Count
YoY
|
New Listing Count
YoY
|
Median Days on
Market
|
Median Days on
Market Y-Y (Days)
|
Price Reduced
Share
|
Price Reduced Share
Y-Y (Percentage Points)
|
Atlanta-Sandy
Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.
|
$426,000
|
1.4 %
|
1.5 %
|
-8.7 %
|
-11.1 %
|
43
|
2
|
19.0 %
|
-3.8 pp
|
Austin-Round
Rock-Georgetown, Texas
|
$556,000
|
-0.6 %
|
-1.0 %
|
2.7 %
|
-14.1 %
|
58
|
8
|
35.8 %
|
-9.3 pp
|
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.
|
$370,000
|
7.1 %
|
4.8 %
|
-16.0 %
|
-9.0 %
|
37
|
-4
|
16.2 %
|
0.1 pp
|
Birmingham-Hoover,
Ala.
|
$299,000
|
6.1 %
|
4.0 %
|
16.2 %
|
-15.1 %
|
49
|
5
|
16.9 %
|
2.2 pp
|
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
|
$849,000
|
14.1 %
|
12.4 %
|
-16.6 %
|
-14.1 %
|
31
|
-3
|
14.7 %
|
-0.4 pp
|
Buffalo-Cheektowaga,
N.Y.
|
$260,000
|
8.3 %
|
7.4 %
|
-3.8 %
|
2.1 %
|
39
|
-6
|
8.4 %
|
-0.6 pp
|
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.
|
$425,000
|
1.3 %
|
5.1 %
|
-15.7 %
|
-11.1 %
|
40
|
-3
|
17.7 %
|
-2.9 pp
|
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.
|
$375,000
|
10.3 %
|
5.6 %
|
-24.3 %
|
-5.3 %
|
37
|
-3
|
14.1 %
|
-2.9 pp
|
Cincinnati,
Ohio-Ky.-Ind.
|
$373,000
|
14.6 %
|
9.2 %
|
6.1 %
|
-5.2 %
|
32
|
-4
|
15.7 %
|
2.3 pp
|
Cleveland-Elyria,
Ohio
|
$240,000
|
9.2 %
|
6.3 %
|
-18.3 %
|
-9.4 %
|
40
|
-5
|
15.0 %
|
-1.9 pp
|
Columbus,
Ohio
|
$380,000
|
12.1 %
|
8.9 %
|
-3.8 %
|
-8.9 %
|
30
|
-1
|
22.1 %
|
1.6 pp
|
Dallas-Fort
Worth-Arlington, Texas
|
$450,000
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.5 %
|
4.8 %
|
-11.1 %
|
44
|
2
|
26.0 %
|
-1.7 pp
|
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood,
Colo.
|
$649,000
|
3.6 %
|
5.1 %
|
-2.3 %
|
-9.7 %
|
38
|
2
|
26.5 %
|
-5.5 pp
|
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.
|
$262,000
|
-0.7 %
|
2.2 %
|
-21.5 %
|
-21.9 %
|
40
|
1
|
14.5 %
|
-9.0 pp
|
Hartford-East
Hartford-Middletown, Conn.
|
$400,000
|
7.4 %
|
6.2 %
|
-17.7 %
|
-10.7 %
|
37
|
0
|
8.0 %
|
-0.9 pp
|
Houston-The
Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas
|
$370,000
|
-1.5 %
|
-0.6 %
|
1.8 %
|
-5.6 %
|
44
|
-2
|
20.8 %
|
-3.8 pp
|
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.
|
$330,000
|
10.0 %
|
5.4 %
|
4.3 %
|
-14.3 %
|
39
|
0
|
26.1 %
|
4.4 pp
|
Jacksonville,
Fla.
|
$425,000
|
3.8 %
|
3.0 %
|
-5.4 %
|
-5.0 %
|
50
|
4
|
21.1 %
|
-5.5 pp
|
Kansas City,
Mo.-Kan.
|
$425,000
|
9.6 %
|
5.0 %
|
-2.7 %
|
-6.9 %
|
50
|
-1
|
15.9 %
|
1.1 pp
|
Las
Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.
|
$482,000
|
4.8 %
|
0.4 %
|
-55.1 %
|
-31.7 %
|
43
|
-4
|
16.7 %
|
-26.1 pp
|
Los Angeles-Long
Beach-Anaheim, Calif.
|
$1,175,000
|
23.8 %
|
10.8 %
|
-26.6 %
|
-11.8 %
|
45
|
-2
|
11.8 %
|
-7.0 pp
|
Louisville/Jefferson
County, Ky.-Ind.
|
$316,000
|
5.5 %
|
4.8 %
|
-6.1 %
|
-5.2 %
|
32
|
-4
|
20.1 %
|
2.7 pp
|
Memphis,
Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
|
$310,000
|
-2.1 %
|
2.3 %
|
35.6 %
|
-2.8 %
|
46
|
4
|
22.6 %
|
6.0 pp
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.
|
$599,000
|
0.0 %
|
5.8 %
|
6.7 %
|
-1.0 %
|
58
|
1
|
13.6 %
|
-1.9 pp
|
Milwaukee-Waukesha,
Wis.
|
$350,000
|
5.2 %
|
5.6 %
|
-8.6 %
|
-0.1 %
|
30
|
-6
|
15.6 %
|
-0.7 pp
|
Minneapolis-St.
Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.
|
$445,000
|
7.6 %
|
2.9 %
|
-3.6 %
|
-8.6 %
|
36
|
-5
|
17.3 %
|
0.1 pp
|
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin,
Tenn.
|
$579,000
|
9.4 %
|
5.1 %
|
8.4 %
|
-13.0 %
|
36.5
|
6
|
22.9 %
|
-4.9 pp
|
New Orleans-Metairie,
La.
|
$335,000
|
1.7 %
|
0.4 %
|
28.4 %
|
-5.8 %
|
66
|
11
|
20.4 %
|
-1.5 pp
|
New York-Newark-Jersey
City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.
|
$719,000
|
8.9 %
|
13.3 %
|
-12.5 %
|
-23.6 %
|
60
|
1
|
8.4 %
|
-1.8 pp
|
Oklahoma City,
Okla.
|
$330,000
|
2.7 %
|
1.8 %
|
14.6 %
|
-1.0 %
|
46
|
-2
|
20.8 %
|
1.4 pp
|
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.
|
$456,000
|
1.4 %
|
1.9 %
|
-3.5 %
|
-9.5 %
|
50
|
2
|
20.5 %
|
-2.5 pp
|
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington,
Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.
|
$350,000
|
4.5 %
|
5.3 %
|
-15.3 %
|
-12.9 %
|
45
|
-4
|
14.4 %
|
-1.0 pp
|
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler,
Ariz.
|
$532,000
|
7.6 %
|
0.6 %
|
-44.3 %
|
-20.8 %
|
39
|
-7
|
24.4 %
|
-20.4 pp
|
Pittsburgh,
Pa.
|
$249,000
|
10.6 %
|
1.7 %
|
-7.5 %
|
-2.4 %
|
51
|
1
|
18.1 %
|
-0.3 pp
|
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.
|
$625,000
|
6.0 %
|
2.2 %
|
-3.2 %
|
-15.4 %
|
45
|
2
|
20.4 %
|
-6.4 pp
|
Providence-Warwick,
R.I.-Mass.
|
$550,000
|
14.6 %
|
2.2 %
|
-18.1 %
|
-16.4 %
|
36
|
-3
|
9.2 %
|
-2.5 pp
|
Raleigh-Cary,
N.C.
|
$460,000
|
-1.0 %
|
0.3 %
|
-24.1 %
|
-17.7 %
|
43
|
2
|
16.4 %
|
-3.8 pp
|
Richmond,
Va.
|
$439,000
|
15.0 %
|
6.5 %
|
-0.5 %
|
-18.3 %
|
42
|
-1
|
12.3 %
|
1.2 pp
|
Riverside-San
Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
|
$579,000
|
-0.2 %
|
4.4 %
|
-28.6 %
|
-20.8 %
|
49
|
-1
|
15.0 %
|
-9.5 pp
|
Rochester,
N.Y.
|
$250,000
|
11.4 %
|
11.1 %
|
-11.5 %
|
-7.9 %
|
17
|
-6
|
10.7 %
|
-1.7 pp
|
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, Calif.
|
$650,000
|
8.3 %
|
2.2 %
|
-34.0 %
|
-19.6 %
|
37
|
-8
|
17.8 %
|
-13.1 pp
|
San Antonio-New
Braunfels, Texas
|
$350,000
|
-2.8 %
|
-0.3 %
|
24.4 %
|
4.4 %
|
51
|
5
|
26.7 %
|
3.4 pp
|
San Diego-Chula
Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.
|
$1,050,000
|
18.2 %
|
11.9 %
|
-36.9 %
|
-13.1 %
|
35
|
-5
|
14.5 %
|
-9.5 pp
|
San
Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.
|
$1,095,000
|
0.5 %
|
1.0 %
|
-18.7 %
|
-14.8 %
|
29
|
-9
|
12.7 %
|
-5.4 pp
|
San
Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
|
$1,399,000
|
0.0 %
|
0.9 %
|
-26.1 %
|
-6.3 %
|
29
|
-9
|
10.7 %
|
-5.7 pp
|
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.
|
$799,000
|
4.8 %
|
6.9 %
|
-28.7 %
|
-18.1 %
|
37
|
-2
|
16.1 %
|
-6.9 pp
|
St. Louis,
Mo.-Ill.
|
$280,000
|
1.8 %
|
1.1 %
|
3.7 %
|
-0.7 %
|
38
|
-4
|
16.4 %
|
2.4 pp
|
Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.
|
$439,000
|
2.3 %
|
3.6 %
|
-5.1 %
|
-2.4 %
|
44
|
0
|
22.6 %
|
-5.5 pp
|
Virginia
Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
|
$380,000
|
8.6 %
|
6.6 %
|
-2.4 %
|
-14.0 %
|
36
|
-1
|
17.3 %
|
0.2 pp
|
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W.
Va.
|
$615,000
|
7.9 %
|
7.2 %
|
-24.2 %
|
-16.1 %
|
35
|
-4
|
13.7 %
|
-3.6 pp
|
Methodology
Realtor.com® housing data as of
September 2023. Listings include the
active inventory of existing single-family homes and
condos/townhomes/rowhomes/co-ops for the given level of geography
on Realtor.com®; new construction is excluded unless
listed via an MLS that provides listing data to
Realtor.com®. Realtor.com® data history goes
back to July 2016. 50 largest U.S.
metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and
Budget (OMB).
About Realtor.com®
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is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone.
Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate
more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps,
Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers,
empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down
barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating
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Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth,
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subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit
Realtor.com®.
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SOURCE Realtor.com