Treasurys Edge Lower After Recent Rally
July 24 2017 - 4:03PM
Dow Jones News
By Sam Goldfarb
U.S. government bonds pulled back slightly Monday as investors
took some chips off the table following a two-week rally.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note settled at
2.253%, compared with 2.232% Friday. Yields rise when bond prices
fall.
Analysts attributed the modest decline in bond prices mostly to
profit-taking and caution ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve
meeting and Friday's report on second-quarter U.S. economic
growth.
"The market has rallied pretty significantly over the past
couple of weeks," said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at
BMO Capital Markets. "We're not surprised to see a bit of
consolidation here."
Before bond yields started to fall two weeks ago, they had been
rising sharply, with the yield on the 10-year note nearly reaching
2.4% after falling below 2.2% in June.
Investors and analysts say the recent rally has been driven in
part by a shift in tone from Fed officials, who have suggested that
tepid inflation could cause the central bank to raise interest
rates more slowly than previously anticipated. European Central
Bank officials have also tamped down speculation about an imminent
shift toward less monetary stimulus.
One factor that could depress bond prices this week is a trio of
Treasury note auctions, starting with a $26 billion sale of
two-year notes Tuesday, continuing with a $34 billion sale of
five-year notes Wednesday, and ending with a $28 billion sale of
seven-year notes Thursday. New debt sales sometimes weigh on the
prices of outstanding bonds.
While the Fed isn't expected to raise interest rates Wednesday,
it could still move the market through signals contained in its
policy statement, analysts said. The central bank, for example,
could provide more detail about when it will start reducing its
balance sheet, which includes more than $2 trillion of Treasury
debt.
Fed officials have said the process will begin this year, and
many investors anticipate a start in the late summer or early fall,
before the Fed raises rates again.
A reduction in the Fed's balance sheet could lead to lower
prices on outstanding government debt, as the central bank allows
some of its bondholdings to mature without replacing them with new
bonds.
Fewer bond purchases by the Fed means more Treasury debt sold to
the public. Still, many investors believe that the pullback by the
Fed will take place slowly enough that it will have little effect
on the market. Its impact on longer-term bond yields could also be
mitigated if the Treasury Department responds mostly by selling
more short-term debt, analysts say.
Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 24, 2017 15:48 ET (19:48 GMT)
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