Macron, Le Pen Outcome in France Offers Encouragement for EU
April 23 2017 - 8:45PM
Dow Jones News
By Marcus Walker
The first-round results of France's presidential election on
Sunday offered encouragement for the European Union but warnings
for the established center-right and center-left parties that have
dominated Europe's politics for decades.
The EU's favored candidate, Emmanuel Macron, won the first round
with 23.9% of the vote, according an official tally of 96% of
votes, ahead of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, with 21.4%. They
will face off in the final round on May 7.
Opinion polls for the final, head-to-head contest have been far
more decisive than for Sunday's fragmented, multicandidate vote.
Surveys up until last week consistently showed Mr. Macron beating
Ms. Le Pen by 20 percentage points or more in a one-on-one
duel.
Still, the outcome triggers alarms for Europe's established
parties on the center-right and center-left. France's long-dominant
Socialists and conservatives failed to reach the runoff -- an
outcome that leaves both parties in crisis. Mr. Macron, a centrist
with an eclectic policy platform, has no conventional party behind
him.
Victory for Mr. Macron, 39 years old and a staunch EU supporter,
would strengthen the conviction of Europe's mainstream politicians
that they can beat back the challenge from anti-EU nationalists
such as Ms. Le Pen.
"A Macron presidency would change the narrative for the European
Union, feeding the perception that we are past peak populism," said
Nicolas Veron, a French economist and fellow at Brussels-based
think tank Bruegel. "Lower political uncertainty could also help
economic growth in the eurozone."
After a year of political shocks, however, few incumbents in
Europe's capitals will rest easy until the contest is over. And Ms.
Le Pen still has a shot at power. Her pledges to disband the euro
and dilute the EU would undo decades of efforts to unite Europe
politically and economically. Her foreign-policy views, including
her closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, would call into
question France's commitment to its security alliance with Western
powers such as the U.S. and Germany.
A Le Pen presidency would deliver the third blow within a year
to the integrated, liberal-internationalist order of the Western
world, following the U.K.'s referendum vote last summer to leave
the EU and the election of Donald Trump in the fall as U.S.
president on a nationalist, populist platform.
More recently, the tide in parts of Europe has turned in favor
of centrist politicians who support the EU and multilateral
cooperation.
Nationalist parties fell short of their ambitions in recent
Dutch and Austrian elections. In Germany, where parliamentary
elections are due in September, traditional parties are dominating
the race while a nationalist upstart group is mired in internal
squabbles.
Many political scientists warn that the decline of established
parties is a long-term phenomenon, however, and that
antiestablishment populists such as Ms. Le Pen aren't going
away.
In the runoff, most observers expect French voters from a broad
swath of the political spectrum to rally behind Mr. Macron in order
to block the radical challenge from the far right.
On Sunday, defeated candidates, including conservative François
Fillon and Socialist Benoit Hamon, asked their voters to support
Mr. Macron.
One factor is the euro. Surveys suggest a large majority of
French voters want to keep the currency, rather than return to the
French franc as Ms. Le Pen proposes.
Mr. Macron is an ardent supporter of the EU, but also argues
that the bloc and the euro need growth-friendly overhauls.
To persuade a skeptical Germany, however, he may first have to
deliver on his promise to reform France's sluggish economy.
The contest between the 39-year-old pro-EU centrist Mr. Macron
and the 48-year-old Ms. Le Pen is "incredibly binary," says
François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic
Research, a Paris think tank. "On the one hand, you have a
potential for a revitalization of the EU. On the other hand,
complete and utter destruction of the EU. There is very little in
between."
In neighboring Germany -- France's main partner in driving
European integration since the 1950s -- ruling politicians made no
secret on Sunday that they hope Mr. Macron wins. "All the best for
the next two weeks," Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman said in a
tweet directed at Mr. Macron.
"Macron is clearly the most pro-EU candidate and the most
supportive of Franco-German cooperation," said Volker Perthes,
director of the German Institute for International and Security
Affairs.
If Mr. Macron wins, Germany will hope he can also form an
alliance in parliament that allows him to enact economic overhauls,
Mr. Perthes says.
The contest between centrists and populists over France's future
will only conclude with June's elections for the national
legislature.
Write to Marcus Walker at marcus.walker@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 23, 2017 20:30 ET (00:30 GMT)
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