- Green Power Gap estimates the renewable energy capacity that
must be generated by 2050 for these countries to meet both global
development and climate goals
- Outlines four new pathways from energy poverty to close the
gap for 3.8 billion people in Africa, Asia,
Latin America, and Middle East
NEW
YORK, Aug. 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The
Rockefeller Foundation released a new report today that calculates
an 8,700 terawatt-hour (TWh) "Green Power Gap" across 72 countries
in Africa, Asia, Latin
America and the Caribbean,
and the Middle East. Currently
home to 3.8 billion people, these countries must deploy 8,700 TWh
of clean power by 2050 – approximately twice the United States' annual generation – in
order to leapfrog from more traditional, costly, and inefficient
power systems into a future of energy abundance. The Green Power
Gap: Achieving an Energy Abundant Future for Everyone also
identifies a green window of opportunity and sets out four new
pathways to close the gap.
"The fate of 3.8 billion people's lives and the planet itself
will depend on whether we can close the Green Power Gap," said
Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The
Rockefeller Foundation. "History makes clear that people and
countries will pursue opportunity regardless of the climate
consequences. The only way to achieve the world's climate goals is
scaling solutions and mobilizing the capital needed to ensure 3.8
billion people have enough clean electricity to lift up their lives
and livelihoods."
The 72 countries analyzed in the report represent 68 that fall
below the Modern Energy Minimum (MEM), which is defined as having
an average annual per capita usage of less than 1,000 kilowatt
hours (kWh) necessary to lift people out of poverty, create jobs,
and drive economic development. The report also includes four
additional countries* that have surpassed the MEM threshold but are
included in the "energy-poor" category because significant
proportions of their populations still live well below the MEM.
With only eight out of the 72 countries in Latin America & the Caribbean (Bolivia, El
Salvador*, Guatemala,
Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua) and the Middle East (Syria and Yemen), the rest are concentrated in
Africa and Asia.
Africa:
1) Angola
2) Benin
3) Burkina
Faso
4) Burundi
5) Cabo
Verde
6) Cameroon
7) Central African
Republic
8) Chad
9) Comoros
10)
Congo
11) Côte
d'Ivoire
12)
Djibouti
|
13)
Democratic Republic of Congo
14)
Equatorial Guinea
15)
Eritrea
16)
Ethiopia
17)
Gabon*
18)
Gambia
19)
Ghana
20)
Guinea
21)
Guinea-Bissau
22)
Liberia
23)
Lesotho
|
24)
Kenya
25)
Madagascar
26)
Malawi
27)
Mali
28)
Mauritania
29)
Morocco
30)
Mozambique
31)
Niger
32) Nigeria
33)
Rwanda
34) Sao
Tome & Principe
|
35)
Senegal
36) Sierra
Leone
37)
Somalia
38) South
Sudan
39)
Sudan
40)
Tanzania
41)
Togo
42)
Uganda
43)
Zambia
44)
Zimbabwe
|
"While an energy transition is already taking hold in many
advanced and emerging markets, far too many people in Africa are being left behind," said William
Asiko, Vice President and head of The Rockefeller Foundation's
Africa Regional Office. "The good news is that we are seeing
big and bold ambitions emerge, such as the recent commitment by the
World Bank and the African Development Bank to electrify 300
million Africans by 2030. These kinds of commitments, coupled with
Africa's superior renewable energy
resources, present a unique opportunity for the continent to create
diverse, flexible, and reliable renewable energy systems – and we
believe quantifying the Green Power Gap is an important step
towards collective action."
Asia:
1)
Afghanistan
2)
Bangladesh
3) Cambodia
4) India*
5)
Indonesia*
|
6) Kiribati
7)
Micronesia
8) Myanmar
9) Nepal
10) North
Korea
|
11)
Pakistan
12) Papua
New Guinea
13)
Philippines
14)
Samoa
15) Solomon
Islands
|
16) Sri
Lanka
17)
Timor-Leste
18)
Tonga
19)
Tuvalu
20)
Vanuatu
|
"While there is no one-size-fits-all answer to a future of clean
energy abundance, we believe that there is a 'green window of
opportunity' based on existing power system assets and the
availability of renewable energy resources in Asia," said Deepali
Khanna, Vice President and head of The Rockefeller
Foundation's Asia Regional Office. "Countries in the region,
especially India and Indonesia, are already paving the way by
deploying renewable energy technologies at unprecedented
scale."
Calculating the Green Power Gap
For this report, The
Rockefeller Foundation sorts the 193 UN member countries into three
categories: (1) "Advanced economies," which are the 55 countries
defined as high-income by the World Bank; (2) "Energy-poor
countries," representing the 68 energy poor countries, plus the
additional four* identified above; and (3) "Emerging economies,"
representing the 66 countries that fall between the two categories
(this group also saw their consumption increase by nearly 4,000 kWh
per annum over the past 50 years, as compared to "energy-poor"
countries that only saw a 500 kWh increase).
The Green Power Gap was calculated by determining how much
carbon the world can emit while keeping global temperatures below
1.75°C and while accounting for population growth and development
goals. It also assumes that the 55 "advanced" and 66 "emerging"
countries will achieve net-zero emissions in 2050 and 2060,
respectively.
Based on those calculations, this scenario's remaining 207
gigatons (GT) carbon budget allows considerable room for the 72
"energy-poor" countries to grow. Focusing on the power sector
alone, fossil fuel generation can grow moderately in the near term,
but in the long term, green power must become dominant. For
example, in 2030, about two-thirds of the total generation could
still come from fossil fuels in energy-poor countries. But by 2040,
that share would need to fall to 30%, and net zero must be achieved
by 2070.
Four Pathways to Close the Gap
Achieving energy
abundance will require a blend of technology, but that blend will
differ heavily based on individual country resources and needs.
Existing power system assets and the availability of renewable
energy assets in each country will determine which type of green
leapfrog opportunities are most viable. Based on this, the report
identifies four pathways to clean energy abundance enabled by
modern technology. These are:
- Gradual grid greening: This pathway is appropriate in
countries like India that have
developed grids and considerable centralized fossil fuel generation
assets.
- Mixed grid renewable evolution: This pathway is
appropriate in countries like Nigeria with limited grid and generation
capacity but higher population density.
- Decentralized solar storage: This pathway
is appropriate in countries such as Burkina Faso, which have excellent solar
resources but where grid development and access to other renewable
resources are limited.
- Decentralized renewable mix: This pathway
is suitable for countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo with limited
grid and generation assets but with diverse high-quality renewable
resources available.
"Closing the Green Power Gap is in every country's
interest," said Dr. Joseph
Curtin, Managing Director of The Rockefeller Foundation's
Power and Climate team and co-author of the report. "Also,
these 72 countries have superior renewable resources when compared
to countries that are already deploying renewables at scale. So
rather than follow the path taken by many advanced economies, they
have a green window of opportunity to leapfrog to cleaner, nimbler,
and more flexible power systems."
The Rockefeller Foundation aims to explore these divergent
pathways in greater detail in future analysis.
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SOURCE The Rockefeller Foundation