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4 days ago
Netflix Stock Could Be Next in Line for a Split After it Hits $1,100
By: 24/7 Wall St. | November 29, 2024
If there’s a mega-cap tech titan out there that’s overdue for a stock split, it’s Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). After an impressive parabolic surge, NFLX shares now find themselves flirting with $900 per share.
Undoubtedly, having the stock hit such a level would have been difficult to imagine two and a half years ago when the name bottomed out in the $180 range after suffering a devastating crash that saw over 74% in value wiped out.
With so much momentum behind the stock, which has more than tripled in two years (210% gain), perhaps the streaming giant was far more magnificent than we gave it credit for during its post-pandemic decline. Apart from retaining its streaming crown in the face of stiff industry competition by sticking with its unmatched content strategy, the company has demonstrated it’s more than willing to take a risk to transform itself in the new streaming era that includes live sporting events.
Key Points About This Article
• As Netflix live streaming helps power shares to $1,100, a stock split seems warranted.
• The Paul vs. Tyson fight shows the magnitude of demand to be had for live sports.
• If you’re looking for some stocks with huge potential, make sure to grab a free copy of our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential.
The massive silver lining to the technical difficulties experienced during Paul vs. Tyson
Undoubtedly, jumping into less familiar territory (live streaming for Netflix) can cause one to fumble the ball in a big way. Most notably, the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson boxing match in November frustrated many fans when a profound number of viewers (around 107 million globally) caused buffering issues and outages. Perhaps Jake Paul put it best: the vast number of fans “broke the site.” Despite the horrid technical issues that plagued the event, however, shares reacted positively.
Simply put, demand was off the charts, and more similar live events may be key to boosting growth. Further, technical difficulties can be conquered. And if there’s a firm that can learn the ropes (no pun intended), it’s Netflix, which rose to glory by navigating far outside its comfort zone, making a few mistakes along the way. Such mistakes are more than forgivable, in my view, especially as Netflix learns and grows its new drivers.
Whether such new growth, like that experienced in live-streaming events, can help propel NFLX stock well into the quadruple-digits to warrant a split in the new year remains to be seen.
Either way, today’s share price, $872, and change per share seems quite hefty for a new retail investor who’s just starting out.
Of course, the advent of buying partial shares at some brokerages enables many to start a diversified portfolio, including shares of companies with very high prices, with a smaller investable sum. That said, stock splits are never a bad thing, especially in this environment where retail demand has grown to become quite lofty.
This bullish analyst sees NFLX stock soaring to $1,100. A split could follow shortly after.
Recently, Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak hiked his price target on NFLX stock to $1,100, citing technical shortcomings of the Paul vs. Tyson fight as nothing more than a “successful learning experience.” He’s right. If Tyson were to fight Logan Paul, the brother of Jake Paul, next, I’m sure we’ll all be tuning back in despite bad experiences with the quality of the previous stream.
Though it’s hard to tell what the next big live event will be, I think it’s safe to say that Netflix now knows the magnitude of what it faces. And with that, it’ll (hopefully) have the improvements in place to deliver a more seamless stream. Up ahead, Mr. Wlodarczak is also bullish on the potential to be had in sports. He’s right on the money. Netflix knows how to draw in viewers. And if it can support them, I’d bet they’d be that much more willing to not only stick with their subscriptions but pay higher prices.
Up ahead, Netflix has two NFL games to stream on Christmas Day. And shortly after that, some WWE Monday Night Raw will be up to the plate. Though I don’t expect either live event to draw in the crowds that Paul vs. Tyson did, I do find that each event will help strengthen Netflix’s live-streaming muscles.
Who knows? Perhaps they’ll grow to become strong enough to support more than 100 million concurrent viewers come the next big live fight event. Whether it features Mike Tyson and one of the Pauls remains to be seen.
Either way, strength in live-streaming sports is real. And as Netflix stock makes a move to $1,100, one has to think a split will be penciled in at some point.
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2 weeks ago
Netflix Stock Reverses Losses on Beyoncé Halftime Buzz
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 18, 2024
• NFLX is brushing off glitches during its broadcast of the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight
• NFLX sports a 69.5% lead for 2024
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is up 0.3% at $825.41 at last glance, amid news that Beyoncé will perform the halftime show in the Baltimore Ravens-Houston Texans Christmas Day game that the company will exclusively stream. Shares are reversing premarket losses that followed several glitches during its broadcast of the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight on Saturday -- its biggest live sports event ever.
The equity has taken a breather from its Nov. 14, record closing high of $837.26, but is still on track for its fifth win in the last six sessions. NFX is trading comfortably above its 20-day moving average after a brief dip below it in mid-October, and sports are up 69.5% lead for 2024.
Short-term options traders lean bearish. This is per Netflix stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.34 that sits higher than 94% of readings from the last 12 months.
Now looks like a good time to weigh in on NFLX's next moves with options. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 23% stands in the 2nd percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in extremely low volatility expectations at the moment.
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4 weeks ago
$NFLX Nice potential bull flag forming, with a target of ~$835, contingent on holding above $735
By: Intelligent Investing | November 6, 2024
• $NFLX
Nice potential bull flag forming, with a target of ~$835, contingent on holding above $735. Thus there is a good risk / reward setup, while the chart's trend is 100% bullish (price > 10d sma > 20d > 50d > Cloud > 200d; and all are rising).
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2 months ago
Netflix (NFLX) Stock Hits Record Highs After Earnings
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 18, 2024
• Netflix has quietly strung together an outstanding year on the charts
• NFLX's options volume is running at 14 times the intraday average today
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is 8.3% higher to trade at $744.38, and earlier hit a new record high of $756.89 after a blockbuster third-quarter earnings report. For the quarter, the streaming giant tallied earnings per share of $5.40 on revenue of $9.83 billion, saw total paid subscribers of 282.70 million, and issued fourth-quarter guidance that was ahead of expectations.
Prior to today's pop, the shares were testing their 80-day moving average. Netflix stock is about to nab its 10th weekly win in 11, and now stands 55% higher since the start of 2024, with an 86.6% year-over-year lead to boot.
At last check, 71,000 calls and 62,000 puts have crossed the tape today, which is 14 times the intraday average amount. New positions are being bought to open at the most popular October 750 call that expires at the end of today's trading.
This denotes a shift in sentiment, as bearish bets were the popular pick over the last two weeks. NFLX's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.10 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which stands higher than 98% of readings from the past 12 months.
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3 months ago
Netflix Subscribers, Ad Sales, and Share Price All Rising
By: Lucas Downey | August 27, 2024
• Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is growing subscribers, retaining them, and could attract more due to unique programming and adding live sports.
The leading streaming video company, NFLX has 277 million paying subscribers, which is up 16% from a year prior. Its growing content library and user database make it a place where people go to be entertained and stay there because of the spot-on recommendations.
It makes sense that Netflix has a market capitalization of nearly $293 billion and annual sales topping $36 billion. And with its addition of an ad-supported tier, it’s opened a new revenue channel that is proving popular with advertisers (e.g., a 150% jump in ad sales commitments).
It’s no wonder NFLX shares are up 41% this year – and they could rise more. MAPsignals data shows how Big Money investors are betting heavily on the forward picture of the stock.
Netflix Shares in Demand
Institutional volumes reveal plenty. In the last year, NFLX has enjoyed strong investor demand, which we believe to be institutional support.
Each green bar signals unusually large volumes in NFLX shares. They reflect our proprietary inflow signal, pushing the stock higher:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Plenty of technology names are under accumulation right now. But there’s a powerful fundamental story happening with Netflix.
Netflix Fundamental Analysis
Institutional support and a healthy fundamental backdrop make this company worth investigating. As you can see, NFLX has had strong sales and earnings growth:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+10.6%)
• 3-year EPS growth rate (+31%)
Source: FactSet
Also, EPS is estimated to ramp higher this year by +20.3%.
Now it makes sense why the stock has been powering to new heights. NFLX has a track record of strong financial performance.
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary software has found some big winning stocks over the long term.
Netflix has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report multiple times in the last year. The blue bars below show when NFLX was a top pick…making the share price jump:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of money flows.
This is a trait that most outlier stocks exhibit…the best of the best. Big Money demand drives stocks upward.
Netflix Price Prediction
The NFLX rally isn’t new at all. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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3 months ago
Signal Says Netflix (NFLX) Stock is Ready for More Records
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | August 22, 2024
• Netflix stock's recent peak comes amid low implied volatility
• NFLX has rallied off its early August lows below $600
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is flashing another historically bullish signal as the shares -- last seen fractionally higher at $697.16 -- remain just below their Aug. 20 all-time high of $711.33, giving investors another chance to get in on the action.
Netflix's recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which was a bullish combination in the past. According to Schaeffer's Senior Market Strategist Chris Prybal, there were six times in the past five years when NFLX was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower. This is now the case with the stock's SVI of 25%, which sits in the low 16th percentile of its 12-month range.
Prybal's data shows that one month after 67% of these signals, Netflix stock was higher, averaging a 3.1% pop for that time period. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put NFLX at around $718.77 per share -- a new record high.
Netflix last hit a record high on Tuesday, after a blog post that boasted a "150% plus increase in upfront ad sales commitments over 2023" and closed partnerships for a swath of fan-favorite films and series. Now up 43% year-to-date, the shares have staged a neat bounce from an Aug. 5, three-month low of $587.04, an area that coincides with its 160-day moving average.
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4 months ago
Netflix Stock Posing Potential Entry Point After Pullback
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | July 30, 2024
• The security is pacing for its sixth-straight daily loss
• Shares are trading near a historically bullish trendline
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is down 0.6% to trade at $623.12 at last check, on track for its sixth-straight daily loss. The shares still boast a 27.8% lead for 2024, and are not too far removed from their July 5, two-year high of $697.49, which was just short of a record peak. While the 20-day moving average is now guiding the equity lower, a bullish trendline now in play has historically preceded gains for NFLX.
The recent negative price action has placed Netflix stock within one standard deviation of its 126-day moving average, after it traded north of this trendline 80% of the time over the past two months, and in eight of the past 10 trading days.
According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the security has flashed six similar signals during the past three years, after which it was higher one month later 60% of the time, averaging a 4.6% gain. A similar move would place NFLX back above $650.
Now seems like a great opportunity to bet on NFLX's next move with options. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 28% sits in the 10th percentile of its 12-month range.
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5 months ago
Netflix Stock Volatile After Upbeat Earnings Report
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | July 19, 2024
• Netflix posted strong second-quarter results
• The streaming giant reported a large number of new customers
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is volatile this morning, after the streaming giant's upbeat second-quarter results and subscriber growth came alongside a disappointing fiscal third-quarter forecast. A flood of analysts raised their price targets on NFLX, including BMO to $770 from $713. At last check, the stock was flat at $643.39, after earlier jumping as high as $678.97.
Before its earlier surge, Netflix stock had been sliding since its early July, two-year peak near the $700 region, which is also home to its November 17, 2021 record high of $700.98, and a firm level of pressure to watch going forward. So far this year, the equity rose 31.4%.
A point in favor of bulls, NFLX's 14-day relative strength index of 26.4 sits in "oversold" territory, which typically indicates a short-term bounce.
Over in the options pits, 113,000 calls and 87,000 puts have been exchanged, which is six times the overall options volume typically seen at this point. Expiring later today, the July 700 call and 625 put are the most popular contracts, with new positions opening at both.
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5 months ago
Netflix Beats Q2 Earnings, Falls on Weak Guidance – Tech Stocks Waver
By: James Hyerczyk | July 18, 2024
Key Points:
• Netflix beat Q2 earnings expectations with EPS of $4.88 and revenue of $9.56 billion, but its stock fell due to a weaker Q3 revenue forecast.
• The company added 8.05 million new subscribers, bringing its total to 278 million, driven by its password-sharing crackdown and ad-supported tier growth.
• Despite strong Q2 results, Netflix's decision to stop reporting subscriber figures and average revenue per member next year has raised concerns about long-term growth sustainability.
Netflix Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations, but Stock Falls on Revenue Outlook
Netflix reported strong second-quarter earnings, beating analyst expectations on key metrics. However, the streaming giant’s stock fell in after-hours trading due to a softer revenue outlook for the third quarter.
At 20:39 GMT, Netflix, Inc. is trading $631.01, down $12.03 or -1.87%.
Earnings and Revenue Surpass Estimates
Netflix posted earnings per share of $4.88, surpassing the expected $4.74. Revenue reached $9.56 billion, a 16.8% increase year-over-year, slightly above the anticipated $9.53 billion. The company’s performance was driven by growth in average paid memberships and the success of its ad-supported tier.
Subscriber Growth Continues to Impress
The streaming leader added 8.05 million new subscribers in Q2, significantly exceeding expectations of 4.7 million. This brings Netflix’s total global paid memberships to 278 million, a 16.5% increase from the previous year. The company’s password-sharing crackdown and expansion of its ad-supported tier have contributed to this growth.
Ad-Supported Tier Gains Momentum
Netflix reported a 34% quarter-on-quarter increase in ad-supported memberships. The company aims to achieve critical ad subscriber scale in its ad countries by 2025, setting the stage for further growth in 2026 and beyond. To boost the ad tier, Netflix plans to phase out its basic plan membership in the US and France.
Daily Netflix, Inc
Revenue Forecast Misses Mark
Despite strong Q2 results, Netflix’s Q3 revenue forecast of $9.73 billion fell short of the $9.83 billion analysts expected. This outlook, coupled with the company’s decision to stop reporting subscriber figures and average revenue per member starting next year, has raised concerns about long-term growth sustainability.
Market Reaction and Future Outlook
Netflix shares dropped up to 6% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. However, the company raised its full-year 2024 revenue growth projection to 14-15%, up from the previous 13-15% range. Operating margins are expected to reach 26% for the full year, an increase from the earlier 25% forecast.
Market Forecast
The market’s reaction to Netflix’s earnings report suggests a bearish short-term outlook. While the company’s Q2 performance was strong, concerns about future revenue growth and the decision to withhold key metrics have created uncertainty. Traders should monitor Netflix’s ability to maintain subscriber growth and successfully monetize its ad-supported tier in the coming quarters. The stock may face downward pressure in the near term as the market digests these mixed signals.
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