wadirum1
4 days ago
Can't quite bring myself to jump in here. Lots of hand-wringing by pundits, and yet the S&P 500 is still over 6,000. I think we'll drop below 4,000, but the question is when. Might not be until 2026 that the wheels start to fall off, and I don't want to hold this that long. Maybe I should start trading this. Chance of small gains as well as chances of being in this if and when the market collapses.
wadirum1
3 years ago
If Cramer was so good at forecasting inflation, why didn't he see this coming?
Seriously, the biggest inflation in 4 decades, and he entirely whiffed.
I would look for advice from someone who views inflation as a monetary phenomenon. We opened the firehose of money on the economy, and until something fairly drastic occurs to claw that back there will be no end to inflation.
And, no, in my book starting $30B in QT in June is not drastic. Nor is this tweak up in interest rates. With inflation at 7% or more, short term rates are extraordinarily negative. The Taylor Rule would have them be several points higher.
There are those who say the federal government could not withstand such rate increases given the size of our debt. But what we REALLY cannot have is prolonged periods with long rates up at 6 or 7%. We finance the debt mainly at the 10-year bond, so that's what we need to watch. And only dampening inflation fears can bring that down, especially if the dollar is going to be so high and if the Fed is doing QT (selling bonds).
We have a VERY tough road ahead, and Cramer just does not have the tools to see it.
wadirum1
3 years ago
And the market is up again -- despite record valuations, impending end to Fed efforts to prop up the market, inflation looming, and now this:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1466439322656120832
BREAKINGβNew domestic-travel only #Omicron case identified in Minnesota of a traveler who visited New York City and attended an anime convention at the Javits Center Nov 19-21, and got symptoms on Nov 22nd. With such timeline, it could be now across US.
Oh, but don't worry, the first cases in South Africa for one doc were mild, except for the ones that required hospitalization.
barnyarddog
3 years ago
stagflation is begging to bite
Restaurant Recovery Fried As "Business Conditions Worse Now Than Three Months Ago"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/restaurant-recovery-fried-business-conditions-worse-now-three-months-ago
... soaring food inflation, labor shortages, and logistical nightmares that have made some restaurant items nearly impossible to obtain.
....95% of restaurant operators say their restaurant experienced supply delays or shortages of key food or beverage items during the past three months.
...Costs are up β 91% of operators are paying more for food; 84% have higher labor costs; 63% are paying higher occupancy costs, but profitability is down β 85% of operators reported smaller margins than before the pandemic.
A separate study by small business networking site Alignable, conducted between Aug. 28 and Sept. 27, found that most restaurants (51%) were unable to cover their September rent.