Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc (IOVA) Quote

This board is mostly longs with positions based on the fundamentals and long term projections. Certainly there’s also trading around cores and options but there are no unsuspecting newbies here lol.

I am here to make sure you don't post a bunch of lies to unsuspecting newbies. When are you going to post your trades you bragged about. Or was that all BS? Post Proof!!! Oh wait you cant!!

Go back under your troll rock.

Post your trades sir. I highly doubt your self statements. You were pumping this at $11 and now your said you sold? Were you pumping when you were selling? Please post your proof of trades otherwise none us on the board believe you.. 

Are you illiterate? I believe so.

surfkast

Member Level
Re: jdcpa1 post# 1822

Saturday, November 16, 2024 2:19:03 PM

Post#
1833
of 1834
I agree! Glad I sold months ago and bought back in at $7.44. Hope this reverses soon/.
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17.44 buy in is crazy.. no wonder why you constantly pump away here.  

I agree! Glad I sold months ago and bought back in at $7.44. Hope this reverses soon/.

I am almost certain these are all Market-On-Close orders. If you invest in mutual funds, you know they require you to submit a buy/sell order usually 30-60 minutes prior to market close. They then aggregate inflows/outflows and put in a MoC order based on the net. This has to be into the exchange 10 minutes prior to close. MM will then adjust pricing to cover all the MoC orders. These also come from day traders wanting to square their position prior to close.

If you go to any chart for the Friday close, you will see the big spike in volume last minute. I checked about 5 including AAPL and all the same. Think you get bigger spikes on market sell offs as people want to exit their mutual funds and move to cash. You can see each individual trades if you go to the exchange website (nasdaq.com for IOVA).

Dark pool trades to not hit the exchanges so these would not show up on the charts which are fed from the exchange data.

Investopedia.com is a great source for anything relating to trading and the markets. Gives insights and stem a lot of the conspiracy theories that get spread around.

Dark Pools: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/050614/introduction-dark-pools.asp

MoC: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketonclose.asp

Corsair, I don't have a good guess to provide regarding that large block of shares that traded right after regular trading hours. Possibly a dark pool trade? MM getting flat per agreed arrangement at end of day (doubtful)? I'm sure others can address this question far better than I. I don't think we'll know the real answer any time soon.

If anyone has a possible explanation, I'd love to hear it as well regarding the 8+ million share block at the close. It seemed far too big to be tied to options for Nov 15th.

Have a great weekend.

On IBKR, the last downgrade they show is from Piper from back in July. All others showing are maintained or initiated at Buy/Outperform.

Hitcham - you see this in a lot of biotechs. They will run up into a PDUFA or other "known" catalysts and then you get a sell-off. There is always a big FOMO trade in biotechs, but they are always raising cash so they are an easy target for short sellers. That is why I want IOVA to get to break-even cashflow as soon as possible. This takes away the cash raise risk substantially... although it is always there to some extent until they start handing out a dividend.

BK
Sorry to be off topic, read somewhere that 4 of the analysists have lowered their ratings. Have you seen or heard if that's true. I can't find any more details and wondering if it is a short piece. Also any ideas on the end of day trade, shows up here but not on Yahoo.

Syndax dropped by 6% yesterday, announced FDA approval after closing then the SP recovered only 1%!!!

Bulls are in control of the market now and not only iovance and surely all growth stock that are still not profitable. 

I am bracing for a difficult couple of weeks before it gets better and I hope I am wrong...

GMH, that was more of a statement, and yes, fully aware of that. My point was one of implication - meaning since WR has not reported any purchases, he may be locked out due to having MNPI - material non-public information. If he's involved in any on-going discussions with possible suitors for the company, he would not be able to buy or sell. That's all I meant by stating it the way I did. As always, thanks and have a great weekend. BK

Because Quogue is wholly owned by Rothbaum, they would need to disclose any change in ownership as an insider within 3 days of the transaction. Because of that, I do not believe they are required to provide quarterly updates.

Look again at the top 10: https://ir.iovance.com/stock-information/ownership-summary

Everyone added except MHR and Geode reduced a tiny bit (and we don't know what WR/Quogue has done for quite a while). Even they couldn't have predicted all this recent craziness. I would bet they're still adding as we speak.

GMH, if you want to see some unexpected put risk, take a peak at today's SMCI options. There's a lot of new shareholders today that thought they were totally safe when they sold those puts that were way out of the money a while back.

When I sell puts, I like to limit my exposure to shares I'm willing to buy anyway even if my expectations are that I won't ever see those shares. I did sell a handful more today on IOVA for Jan and Mar with a willingness to add those shares if necessary. I do have some puts that I sold a while ago that are currently underwater, but I suspect they won't be at expiration. It's always possible that they could put those shares to me sooner, but not likely as there is still some premium attached to those contracts. Again, I'm okay with that as I'm still accumulating shares, but I certainly didn't expect these levels would be seen once more.

Today was a very healthy pullback across the board and especially in this sector (see XBI) on fear and uncertainty. As for Iovance, all the reasons to be long haven't changed. Whether you bought at $14 or $7 (I've done both), the future of this company will make both of those prices seem like good deals in time.

Have a great weekend. Good luck to the longs.

Timberrrrrr

I am retired and most of my assets are in market index ETFs. If IOVA were to go to $0, it would wipe out about 10% of my value... not concerned about the equity risk but the Put options I kept selling on pullbacks. Biggest risk for me is 7.50P expiring Jan. Couple of days ago, I thought those were 100% safe... now, not so much.

I am in the same boat my friend. 90 k shares so 350 k$ drop over a week.

BUT

I am holding to my shares...

The only change is that I am now adjusting my strategy from 110 +- 20 k into 90 k +- 20 k.

I need to strike the right balance between long term gain and short term blood pressure increase!!

Don't give up all, the fundamentals have not changed. 

Criminal at best!

I have added too much exposure already this drop... fingers almost cut off from all the falling knives. I am going to wait for a couple green days in a row before considering it a bottom now.

Good call, Hicham, the market is making (hopefully) one big last flush. Good luck to the bargain shoppers today.

This one trades more like a P&D than a NASDAQ Biotherapeutics company with FDA products!

Pig piles!!! Lol

For valuations on these pre- or early revenue companies, I try to create a pro-forma P&L looking out 3-5 years (to estimated peak sales). I then adjust the parameters as facts emerge. For a lot of biotechs, you hear people say "but they have an approved drug/treatment", but if the target patient population is too small, they will never get to profitability, even with a treatment at $2+M. People also always over-estimate adoption. Even for IOVA, people say "these patients are dying, of course they will treat", but even looking at my mom, who is 92 and relatively healthy (for 92), if she developed MM, I am 100% sure she would not treat, even if she was eligible. This is critical to getting to the "real" treatment population.

Having said that, I think IOVA does tick the boxes. For US population, I estimate peak patients at 1,800 for L2+. RoW should add about about 2,200 patients (ramping end 2025), but at a 15% price discount, for a total incoming at 4,000. Hitting about 100 patients/month should allow IOVA to hit efficiency to get to GM target of 70% (ultimately I think they can get to 75%-80%). This also assumes a drop rate moving down to 20% (which was where the trials were but higher FDA cell count requirement in the Assay hurt that). These two alone, get to a $35-40 price, assuming IBB PE and a PEG of 1.5. I think EU/RoW approval at 90%+ since CAR-T was approved. Adding L1, other IND including NSCLC only leverages the bottom line up and the SP would be multiples of the price noted.

Bottom line, for my core holdings, it only matter where I bought it (ave $9.90) and where I sell it (I expect much much higher). On the pullbacks and events, I use options to "play the game", just need to make sure I do not over do it so I can stay in the game.

GMH, Perceptive did add a small amount, MHR is unchanged. Updates will be posted on the company website soon enough. Perceptive's filing posted today: https://ir.iovance.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/sc-13ga/0001193125-24-258737 .

JE, MHR, and WR do seem to be in lockstep with each other based on share totals. WR with the most, Vanguard now 2nd on the list, JE of Perceptive 3rd, and MHR currently 4th. I'm unaware of any other major changes coming that would knock any of these 4 off the top spots.

The top 10 institutions have controlling interest of Iovance with over 54% of the shares for whatever that may mean. It won't take much to get agreement should the time come for a vote of the shareholders.

All still looks solid and stable amongst the top owners, but share price is still frustrating regardless. I still interpret this to mean that they're all on the same page as to what the future holds for Iovance, whatever that future may be - whether a buyout or to go it alone, a possible partnership or even an acquisition of another company. My guess is they all understand the plan as it was explained earlier on when they took large positions.

Just my opinion, of course.

Thanks for posting. Most of the holdings by the big firms (Vanguard, Black Rock, etc.) are the collective decisions of all the various fund managers they employ. The ones I am most interested in are Quogue, but that will only change when WR buys/sells so I don't think there will be an update on that one. Perceptive and MHR have big bets and this is there space and they are "in the know" so will be interesting what they have done. The others is just a mish mash of buys and sells by hundreds of fund managers. Hard to get a take on that.

Surf, nothing wrong with caution especially when preserving capital is important at a certain stage in life. I'm invested a bit more than I had originally planned, but I also have an eye on the what if...

I don't want to have to make my wife go back to work at her age, although she still can outwork most of the younger kids. Dang, maybe I should send her back, lots of companies need good employees. If we were in the Philly market, I hear Iovance is hiring.

Here's a little gem of a note: Hood River Capital Management LLC increased their holdings to 8.14 million shares, an increase of 5.41 million shares as of 9/30/24.

Best of luck to us.

I reached my limit when it was back to $7.44. 10 or 20 m years ago after the run I I would have flipped. Getting old and too cautious. LOL

Surf, what I can say is I increased my position today to get to my personal total number of shares goal and maintaining a price average below $9.50. I know Hicham sees reason to wait a bit longer and will try to catch the bottom, but at this point we're all just playing for small change. Nothing wrong with saving a few extra dollars on the purchase price if you can. My impatience got the best of me today. A year from now, I doubt I'll be too worried if I could have saved an extra quarter or two in the near term.

I took advantage of this drop reasonably well, but certainly not perfectly played.

Good luck to the longs.

Thanks!

Surf, actually, we've seen increases for Vanguard Group, State Street, Black Rock, and even Perceptive added a few more shares. Some new big positions and a couple big increases, but certainly a few that had sold down some shares probably right after the rise following Q2 earnings back in August. Some updates will appear in a day or two, but here's what's currently listed:

https://ir.iovance.com/stock-information/ownership-summary

As for how this stock gets beat around - it does seem well organized to a point. I'm guessing there's plenty of money being made selling the calls and puts and then wiping them all out just in time for options expiration. I've seen this game played on other stocks I've owned while the company was growing its business. But in the end, the good companies do win out and the share holders are rewarded. Options players have to take their chances on timing the moves properly - that's not such an easy task with a young commercial company.

Good luck to the longs.

Institutional injvestors shorting heavily.

We are all tempted to buy more but I am not sure we have hit the bottom. Whoever is dragging this down seams to be totally in control and therefore the SP can ever drop further...

 I personally prefer to wait until the dust settles. Not selling but not buying more ar this stage.

I agree. Feels like something big is brewing. I'm not scared, I'm more confident than ever we are about to hear something soon. Keep buying like they are! I know i am.

Good luck to the longs.

People always claim manipulation with stocks. Well IMO, you can see it with IOVA.
I have traded stocks full time for 5 years and watch charts on daily basis.
I was just watching IOVA on a 1 minute chart when it went to 9.04.
Immediately, 2 blocks of around 100000 shares came in to knock it back down.
That is almost 1 million dollars per these trades.
So what is that? Retail - not at all likely. A large institutional trader selling part of position - doubtful.
So what? IMO - it is naked shorting. They are trying to break the retail trader this week.
The ASK is reloaded on every upswing aggressively.

Just my thought.

Where is the bottom on this? Still trending lower and likely more dilution coming? Please help!

JD, this isn't a penny stock. Hope is not necessary for this investment - even though hope is being given to cancer patients because of Iovance's Amtagvi and TIL therapy. The company is executing on its plan and the market will catch up in time.

I was reminded of the following earlier tonight by a fellow investor with a timely share:

https://www.kingswell.io/p/chapter-8-of-the-intelligent-investor

Always worthwhile to remind ourselves what we've chosen to engage in when we invest in stocks.

Here's a brief takeaway: "That’s the whole ballgame right there. People mistakenly view market fluctuations as something to be afraid of — rather than as opportunities for the intelligent investor to feast upon."

So your banking on hope lol

Big driver will be topline though. As long as efficacy holds up, the treatment is exactly the same as for MM so almost no additional safety risk and the assay and label will probably be identical/nearly identical. At that point, just a question of when, but will still be angst around PDUFA date.

Thank you for saying this GMH, we always knew it was 2027 and the discussion of this being delayed was frustrated to witness. I think some people confused the application for accelerated approval with approval or they thought the application for accelerated approval was delayed. Regardless, there is no delay and in fact with accelerated enrolment it is happening as quickly as it can.

Yes! I keep thinking $25. SMH Have to wait and hope.

Sounds like bad timing on your part again... 

LUN-202 Approval was always going to be 2027. In biotech, you need to know the timeline. Retail investors always want weekly readouts from every patient.
1) After full enrollment/last patient - 4-6 months to determine endpoint (for ORR, mDoR is much longer)
2) 2 months to parse the data; present at conference
3) 4 months to meet with FDA/pull BLA paperwork together
4) 2 months for FDA to verify filing complete and accept BLA
5) 7 to 10 months for FDA review depending on if it is an accelerated approval or not.

All together, it is a minimum of 18 months from full enrollment to approval, if everything goes well. Once you get topline, that is usually what moves the stock. FDA approval can be estimated based on how good the topline data is (safety and efficacy), so less of an unknown. Then the revenue ramp, which, again, usually takes longer than most investors expect (3-4 years to hit peak sales).

I meant that "I had HEARD"

Holy Cow. They are completely hammering it today.
I had put something out about Lung occuring in 2027?
That removed a huge near term catalyst.
Gave the shorts ammo
This stock just makes me sad.
I decided a while back to only trade it as it took years off my life when I held for the time period that i did.

SB, well said. I've added a few shares over these past few days and I'll continue to look for places to add to my core position. I am willing to trade a few shares here and there around the edges so to speak, but I suspect there'll come that day when we all get surprised with some unexpected early good news from EU, a trial, or some other such event, maybe even a buyout. To your point, the company is doing well, improving on margins, increasing patient totals, adding ATCs, and tracking very well for other indications for TIL therapy.

Good luck to the longs.

I’m glad for you but I will just keep slowly accumulating every few weeks here for the next few years 😄 it’s not that this is my only investment of course but with rapid margins rising and costs reducing and very strong data coming out next year onwards… not a concern in the world for me.

Size up- To expect to see $18 once again in 2024 is a pipe dream. Not going to see new highs in 2024.
It is caught in a trading range of $9 to $12.
Risk is very high as timeline for derisking with pipeline progress keeps getting extended out, now to 2026/ 2027. They will do another cash raise at the ATM at your expense in the near future behind your backs. This overhang will keep the share price range bound. Shareholders are paying for the risk. I reduced my core position substantially at $11 (my avg. cost) and plan to watch this one from the sidelines. May buy under $9 and sell around $11 a few times over the next 6 months. The cost to do business is very high and logistics is too cumbersome. It may take 2 years for this bird to fly, if it ever does.

Meantime, I’ve made a killing buying SGMO under $1 a month ago. It’s headed to $5 near term and towards $10 within 1 year if both their drugs get FDA clearance based on stellar data. Now thats a growth trajectory with a faster turn. May add to my core IOVA position again after 6-9 months.