GMH*
3 days ago
Analysts still seem to have a lot of question marks on the guidance. Gross Margins should continue to expand, rapidly at first but decreasing over time. They added 100 employees last quarter, assuming most were for manufacturing, salary of $80k+30% fully loaded costs, and 1 slot / employee / qtr would represent less than 5% of COGS, the rest is a spread of fixed which should diminish quickly with growth. Assumed growth rate for 2025 is 25% QoQ which is really high, but given demand ramp, improving drop rates and 56 to 70 ATC growth, should be an achievable stretch (IMO). That level of growth / margin improvement should get to cash breakeven by Q3/Q4 based on my modeling. Will see, but I view that as the inflection point... and we get 2 data read outs and EMA decision as catalysts on top of quarterly earnings. We will see how the data emerges.
badgerkid
3 days ago
Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy with a $22 price target.
https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/goldman-sachs-reiterates-buy-on-iovance-stock-following-meeting-with-management-93CH-3811217
Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Iovance stock following meeting with management
Investing.com
Editor Rachael Rajan
Analyst Ratings
Published 01/14/2025, 06:11 AM
Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy on Iovance stock following meeting with management
IOVA
On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed their Buy rating on Iovance Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:IOVA) with a steadfast $22.00 price target. The endorsement follows a recent meeting with Iovance's management at an investor conference. The focal point of the discussion was the 2025 outlook for Amtagvi, as it enters its inaugural full calendar year of sales for melanoma treatment.
Iovance has upheld its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2024, projecting $160-165 million, aligning with Goldman Sachs' estimate of $162 million. This guidance reflects a successful Amtagvi launch, indicated by consistent patient demand, enhanced ATC operations, and improved out-of-spec rates.
Despite this positive outlook, Goldman Sachs anticipates ongoing investor discussions, particularly regarding the breakdown of Amtagvi versus Proleukin revenues leading up to the fourth-quarter earnings report. Investors are keen to dissect the fundamentals of the launch and judge the feasibility of the fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance, which stands at $450-475 million as previously announced.
Additionally, gross margins are under scrutiny as investors seek to understand the long-term profitability of the launch. While Amtagvi remains at the forefront of Iovance's 2025 strategy, Goldman Sachs is also closely watching for pipeline updates that could bolster the credibility of Iovance's TIL platform. Notable developments include expected registrational data from the IOV-LUN-202 study in second-line non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and from the Phase 2 IOV-END-201 study in second-line endometrial cancer, both anticipated in 2025.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.
GMH*
4 days ago
Here is my take on the Corporate Deck Update:
Negatives:
1) Re-iterating guidance was insufficient for The Street. At Q2, they guided (mid-points) of $54M and $162.5. Given the YTD revenue, the Q4 discrete revenue would be $76.7M, but given that $58.6M was a $4.6M beat, re-iterating guidance means new discrete Q4 is $72.1M which is viewed as a significant deceleration.
2) 70 ATCs "including ATCs in final stages of readiness" is a miss. They should have never guided to the higher number as there was no upside. I am still surprised they got this close given 56 ATCs at Q3 earnings call.
Positives:
1) I think the revenue guide as a simple carry-forward rather than a true update, so I think they meet discrete Q4 revenue and come in somewhere in the $165-170M range (with a relief rally from wherever the SP is).
2) Employee count (going back across various updates);
- 2023 JPM (500+)
- Pre-approval Q4 2023 (500+)
- June 3-Q1 2024 (600+)
- Aug 9-Q2 2024 (700+)
- Nov 7-Q3 2024 (750+)
- Jan 13-JPM Update (800+)
Given Fred's Q3 comments that growth was primarily driven by capacity and capacity is limited by staffing (footnote Corp Deck), the trend seems favorable.
3) GM-201 (PD1 knockout) trial P1 is fully enrolled- reported in Nov but just noticed now. These generally take time as patients are usually done sequentially. P2 should enroll quicker as they can be treated in parallel.
Uncertain:
1) Manufacturing Milestone - Fulfill patient demand for commercial launch and clinical trials. Does this mean demand is slowing or are they are now ahead of the curve on hiring? Thinking the latter, but could be some of the former as well.
These are the facts I gleaned from the update and my take on them. Do with them what you will. I always appreciate people sharing facts and their opinion (bull or bear). I personally try to base my investing thesis on facts rather than opinion and think I can discern between the two so appreciate everyone's input.
badgerkid
4 days ago
Sunman, if you're the brilliant investor that you continually suggest you are, then why did you invest in the first place and why did you apparently wait so long to sell? I continue to see what the future holds for this company, I accept the risk. You obviously didn't and you want to blame me and others for your supposed failures and losses. If that gets you through the day, so be it.
IOVA is solidly and unfortunately trading with the sector funds right now which has not been good for share price as of late. I know that, most investors here know that, and our hopes of a better share price sooner than later did not materialize. The company still exists, they're still growing revenues, and they're still expanding business operations into numerous new markets. They even issued an updated corporate deck today: https://ir.iovance.com/static-files/f81194ff-6f65-4ed4-af92-67362eb17901
If you're done with IOVA, then be done and move along.
I'll still be here one year from now - assuming Iovance hasn't been acquired by then.
Iovance will still be improving cancer patients' lives and many will even be fully cured. The revenues will continue to rise, macros will likely improve for the sector, and Iovance will also gain more attention from additional investors.
You have no knowledge of who I am and you continually display your foolishness by what you've implied as of late.
Take a vote. If the board wants me gone, I'll be gone. But I'm not going to be silent just because you see the world differently than I do. You can always ignore my comments. I don't recall asking for your approval.
BK
badgerkid
6 days ago
Sunman, let me continue on this vein. What is Iovance worth today should BP wish to acquire it? What is its terminal value? What will IOVA be trading at 1 year from now assuming they continue to meet or even slightly beat their guidance numbers. What is Iovance worth to BP if and when nsclc TIL is approved? What will IOVA be trading at after European approval is announced? How about one year after European approval is announced, along with Australia, Canada, and other foreign markets?
I'm not telling anyone when to buy a stock, I'm pointing out what I believe will be a significant winner in the coming years regardless the current share price. At $10, it's cheap. At $6, it's crazy cheap. At $3, the entire market is broken and it becomes a wild west for traders.
You and I both know full well that IOVA is getting killed by algos and the biotech sector being out of favor. It's not the result of some secret conspiracy being waged against Iovance alone. And it's certainly not because Iovance isn't succeeding. They are. Without relevant news, IOVA will continue to languish until order is restored to biotechs or some newsworthy information is released about Iovance specifically. Even assuming a mediocre return to average valuations in biotech, and with the conservative expectations offered in Iovance guidance for 2025, what will IOVA be trading at going into next year? Higher or lower? Answer honestly. Everyone here knows my answer.
You're not happy with your investing at this time? Who is? Will you be happy with your decisions one year from now? I fully believe I will be.
I get it, you're trading a stock, you want to maximize your investment dollars. But what if you're just a casual investor looking for a place to invest a few dollars and you're looking for a good growth company with a promising future? Is IOVA a good purchase right now? Does it fit that category? If I buy IOVA and put it in my IRA, will it look good 2 years from now? 10 years from now? 20 years? Neither one of us knows for sure, but I see what Iovance is doing and I believe they are a company to be reckoned with and they're going to be instrumental in improving cancer care significantly. Does that mean their stock value will go up? Yeah, probably. Tell me one place that you can invest your money where you can't lose? Spoiler alert, there is no such place.
This is not just a board for day traders, nor is it a board that necessarily needs to be reminded that things are tough in biotechs without a corresponding discussion about future value and potential. I have confidence that many investors and day traders can and hopefully do think for themselves. I also wish to share information that benefits the decisions that other investors may make regarding Iovance.
***And even more importantly, I want everyone to think of Iovance when their friends, their loved ones, or even they get that cancer diagnosis and they want to know all of their options. The word is just barely getting around now and we have a long way to go for everyone to have access to this treatment in the event that it's the best option for their specific type of cancer.
I believe Iovance will be a significant company in cancer treatment options. I have no qualms about buying IOVA at any of the prices we've seen over the past year as I expect that IOVA will be significantly higher in the coming years.
I want Iovance to succeed for all kinds of reasons, including my own selfish reason for profit on my investment.
BK
badgerkid
6 days ago
FWIW, to all of you who don't like the optimism of others, so be it. I'm on the other side of the track, I'm growing tired of all the pessimism around the biotech sector and all the complaints by day traders who don't accept the risk of what they're doing with their money.
The biotech sector is a minefield right now, and many have finally surrendered and limped away as evidenced in the price action. I'll continue to selectively buy shares in companies that I see as ultimate winners.
I guarantee I will not time the market very well and my purchases would sicken all those day traders that expect daily gains and nothing but wins. I will not look like the sharpest tool in the trading shed, but one year, two years, even three years and beyond, I expect to still be excited about my stock purchases and my eventual gains.
At any time, the market could fall in love with a stock like IOVA, I prefer to own it when it does.
Good luck to my fellow investors.
badgerkid
6 days ago
Hicham, I'm still on this ride with you.
To all, looking at outside evidence of where IOVA is relative to XBI and LABU, I challenge you all to go look at the 5 year comparison, the 1 year comparison, and even the 3 month and 1 month. What you'll find is that the game keeps taking IOVA back to the median with a tendency more toward a tie with LABU. This is why trading a stock like IOVA is so challenging (as is all trading for that matter and why most day traders lose money), you're trying to compete against computer trading and all those algos. I'm an investor who tries to focus on fundaments, but I accept that there's a lot of outside pressures that have nothing to do with the company per se.
Yes, current share price stinks, but Iovance is still building a fantastic business and delivering a winning new cancer treatment based on the testimony of thousands of people in the oncology sector. The share price doesn't reflect it yet, but it will. I can be excited about what Iovance has to offer and accept at the same time that the market value doesn't necessarily jibe with what we see as future value. In time, it will, but knowing the when is far more challenging than knowing if.
I'm ultimately responsible for my own trading decisions as are each of you. I see what's coming for Iovance. I don't know for certain when the market value will be more reflective of IOVA's fair value based on what we expect for future revenues, but I'm confident it will.
The biotech sector has been a bear and despite all that we expect for this company, IOVA still trades with the sector as well and as such has fallen out of favor. I expect the company to be wildly successful, but the market hasn't gotten to that point yet. In time, it will. If the ride is too rough, you all have control over your own investments. Your money, your rules. Buy, hold, or sell, it's your decision on what to do with your money. You can base your decision on what others may say, but that is still your decision. My money, my rules, and my decision was to buy more and hold.
Some see me as a cheerleader - I am and I'm excited for TIL therapy to continue in it's market penetration. It is one big step forward for improving cancer treatment. Iovance has many more big steps coming. The company's success will prove to be a reward to shareholders and even more importantly a potential improvement or cure for 10's of thousands of cancer patients that were running out of options.
Good luck to the longs.
badgerkid
1 week ago
GMH, IOVA has required some thick skin and an occasional shot of something strong, and not always to celebrate. Here's hoping for some celebratory reasons soon, but in the meantime and to your point, the entire sector feels a bit broken right now and with it, IOVA.
Other than the price, nothing has changed in my reasons to own IOVA and build a larger position, my impeccable timing on my buys certainly could have been better.
Good luck.
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