NEW
YORK, June 21, 2024 /PRNewswire/ --
The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.5
percent in May 2024 to 101.2
(2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in April. Over the
six-month period between November
2023 and May 2024, the LEI
fell by 2.0 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.4 percent
contraction over the previous six months.
"The U.S. LEI fell again in May, driven primarily by a decline
in new orders, weak consumer sentiment about future business
conditions, and lower building permits," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager,
Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "While the
Index's six-month growth rate remained firmly negative, the LEI
doesn't currently signal a recession. We project real GDP growth
will slow further to under 1 percent (annualized) over Q2 and Q3
2024, as elevated inflation and high interest rates continue to
weigh on consumer spending."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for
the U.S. rose by 0.4 percent in May
2024 to 112.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.1 percent in
April. The CEI grew 0.6 percent over the six-month period ending
May 2024, down from its 1.0 percent
increase over the previous six months. The CEI's component
indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer
payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial
production—are included among the data used to determine recessions
in the US. All four components of the index improved last month,
with industrial production making the largest positive contribution
to the Index.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for
the U.S. inched down by 0.1 percent in May
2024 to 119.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.3 percent in
April. As a result, the LAG's six-month growth rate softened to 0.7
percent between November 2023 and
May 2024, down from 0.8 percent over
the previous six months.
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, July 18, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.
Summary Table of Composite Economic
Indexes
|
|
|
|
|
2024
|
|
|
|
6-Month
|
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
Nov to May
|
Leading
Index
|
102.3
|
r
|
101.7
|
r
|
101.2
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
-0.3
|
|
-0.6
|
|
-0.5
|
|
-2.0
|
|
Diffusion
|
40.0
|
|
25.0
|
|
50.0
|
|
40.0
|
|
Coincident
Index
|
111.9
|
r
|
112.0
|
r
|
112.4
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.1
|
r
|
0.1
|
r
|
0.4
|
|
0.6
|
|
Diffusion
|
50.0
|
|
75.0
|
|
100.0
|
|
100.0
|
|
Lagging
Index
|
119.1
|
r
|
119.5
|
|
119.4
|
p
|
|
|
Percent
Change
|
0.1
|
r
|
0.3
|
r
|
-0.1
|
|
0.7
|
|
Diffusion
|
42.9
|
|
57.1
|
|
35.7
|
|
42.9
|
|
p
Preliminary r
Revised c
Corrected
|
Source:
The Conference Board
|
Indexes equal 100 in
2016
|
|
|
|
About The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index®
(CEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic
system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.
Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are
constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the
economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual
component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly
correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that
anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by
around seven months.
The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for
the U.S. are:
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM® Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods
excluding aircraft orders
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500® Index of Stock Prices
- Leading Credit Index™
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
The four components of the Coincident Economic
Index® for the U.S. are:
- Payroll employment
- Personal income less transfer payments
- Manufacturing and trade sales
- Industrial production
To access data, please visit:
https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board
is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for
What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan,
not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the
United States. ConferenceBoard.org
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SOURCE The Conference Board