Nebuchadnezzar
6 hours ago
4 stocks (1,056 Dow points) today
UNH GS JPM CAT were responsible for 1,056 of 1,500 Dow points today
i wont even need to get into AXP MSFT or AMZN nor NVDA and TSLA and their weight today
no matter how good Trump is and trust me i am glad he won, but he cant stop the next recession, he cant stop the treasury issuance, but he can deal with taxes and his tariffs, albeit good, will cause some pain but longer term that is good.
inflation has bottomed, so that is a problem
the stock market has pulled so much forward, especially NVDA CAT UNH JPM GS AMZN QCOM DELL AXP and TSLA
i dont think it will be easy for the stock market to sustain levels above 5800 or 5900 let alone 6000+, however, you will probably right about SP 500 at 6000 but i would short everything under the sun at 6000-6200 if it even gets there.
Deportations will lead to unemployment and higher wages (good for workers, bad for wage inflation and overall inflation)
CHINA has been quiet, they will devalue their currency and the US dollar will rise even if rates fall against many curriencies, however, i think rates are eventually going to 5-6% because the TLT could see $70s
IRAN ISRAEL war is not ending anytime soon IMO
UKRAINE/RUSSIA who knows
CHINA TAIWAN is definite possibility at anytime
the DEMOCRATIC party is dead and will probably try to cause issues until trump is sworn in and long after he is sworn in
i think the stock market had a major pop on Trump and celebration is in order but the higher this market goes on multiple expansion at this stage in the game has be even more cautious. the ROI now at 5900 is not great, even a 5% gain from 5900 would not be easy and would you really want to chase the SP 500 at 5900 or 6000 when rates will probably yield 5% soon?
Bitcoin is also hitting a major sugar high imo and that could be the first signs of a top as well
if you are not selling at 5900 after a run from 3500 Oct 2022 lows or 4100 Oct 2023 lows, when are you going to sell?
GREEDY PIGS GET SLAUGHTERED