SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) Quote

Gold Faces Bearish Momentum After Bullish Reversal Falters
By: Bruce Powers | November 27, 2024

• Gold’s bullish reversal failed as sellers pushed prices below key support the mid-point of the day’s trading range. Bearish patterns target a confluence zone near 2,470 if the 2,605 daily low is busted.

Gold triggered a one-day bullish reversal of a hammer candlestick pattern on Wednesday. Enthusiasm from the bulls was quickly swatted however, around at the 20-Day MA. Following the day’s high of 2,658, sellers took back control and pushed price down below the half point (2,643) of the day’s trading range. At the time of this writing, gold continues to show weakness as it is trading in the lower half of the day’s trading range. If closes below 2,643, assuming there is not a new high or low for today, then gold should be ready to proceed lower.



Price Rejected at 20-Day MA – Bearish

The 20-Day MA line recently indicated dynamic support for the uptrend, and it was successfully tested today as resistance as the price of gold was rejected to the downside around the line. Also, the same could be said about the relationship to the rising internal trendline. It represented an area of resistance today after previously showing support for the uptrend. This is bearish price behavior typically seen in the development of a downtrend.

Friday’s Plunge May be an Omen

Last Friday’s sharp one-day bearish engulfing reversal day shows aggressive selling, and it mimics the wide range red candle from November 6. That occurred as the decline from the 2,790-record high accelerated. It may have been a warning sign that a bearish continuation may be coming as last week’s high is a lower swing high relative to the record high. If the bears retain control, then the November swing low at 2,537 would be at risk of failing to sustain support.

Falling ABCD Pattern Formed

The bearish pattern that may be developing is a falling ABCD pattern. It is nothing more than a way to calculate two sequential measured moves that are connected by a pullback. Initial targets from the pattern occur where the price change seen in the CD leg of the pattern matches the change in the first AB leg. The first target is where there is symmetry in price between the two swings. Extended targets can also be calculated, and they are based on Fibonacci and other ratios. Nonetheless, although the analysis can provide potential targets, ideally there is confluence with other indicators that point to a similar price target.

The calculation of the purple ABCD pattern on the chart indicates a potential target of 2,470. That level is strengthened as a target because it is also identified in several other ways. Fibonacci ratio analysis shows the 61.8% retracement at 2,473, while there are two trendlines nearby as well, one rising and the other falling. Further, resistance from an interim swing high in July is at 2,484.

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Silver is finally coming to life after months of sideways trading and being overshadowed by gold’s record run of new highs, but with the gray metal now trading above $30, one hidden source of demand could propel silver to a new all-time high in the not-too-distant future.



As reported by The Jerusalem Post, silver’s uses in consumer electronics and renewable energy have been extensively covered, but its applications within the secretive realms of military and aerospace technology are less discussed.



“Recent analysis suggests that military usage of silver may be substantially greater than any other industry category, including electronics, solar panels, and investment demand combined,” the report said. “This information, brought to light by silver market experts, raises significant questions about the transparency of silver demand data and the potential impact on future silver prices.”



While central banks and large asset managers regularly report on silver inventories, purchases, and sales, the report noted that “five U.S. government agencies, including the Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Department of Interior, and the U.S. Geological Survey, have collectively stopped reporting on silver inventories since 1995-1996.”



“The military’s appetite for silver is well documented and was notable during the Manhattan Project, America’s successful attempt at building the first operational nuclear weapon,” the report noted. “In complete secrecy, the United States removed 430 million ounces of silver from the West Point Bullion Depository to turn 1,000-ounce silver bars into cylindrical billets and wound them onto magnetic coils.”



Due to the secrecy of these operations and the assumption that other such developments have occurred under the guise of “black projects,” many in the precious metals community have grown wary of government-sourced data regarding the usage of the gray metal.



This includes its application in creating rockets and missiles, bombs and shells, fighter jets, satellites, tanks and submarines, torpedoes, night vision goggles, communication devices, radar systems, space technology, and nuclear technology.



As often cited by Andy Schectman, a renowned expert in the precious metals market and a regular interviewee with Kitco News, there are 500 ounces of silver in the tip of every tomahawk cruise missile, but the total amount used by the DoD is never reported, suggesting that demand for defense applications could be far higher than what’s assumed.



“The hidden military demand for silver could potentially outpace industrial applications as we progress through time and technology advances,” the report said. “Escalating geopolitical tensions and potential conflicts may drive this increase, making silver's role in military applications increasingly significant. This shift could have a substantial impact on the overall silver market, potentially influencing prices and supply dynamics.”



Some of the properties of silver that make it particularly appealing for military uses include its conductivity, antimicrobial properties, corrosion resistance, reflectivity, and heat conductivity, they noted.



“It is important to note that the military's demand for silver is classified, and there is limited public information available on the specific applications of silver in military equipment,” they added. “However, the properties listed above are likely to be among the most important factors driving the military's demand for silver.”



When combined with the known industrial uses – which include solar energy and photovoltaics, medical applications, photography, soldering and brazing alloys, battery technology, semiconductors, touch screens, and water purification – analysts argue that the price of silver could rise meaningfully in the years to come as the available supply gets absorbed by the growing number of use cases.



“Industrial uses account for more than half of annual silver demand worldwide over the last five years,” they noted. “The biggest consumers for industrial applications include the US, Canada, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Germany, and Russia.”



With the U.S. heavily reliant on silver imports, importing 6,500 tons of silver in 2021 and currently getting 79% of its silver from outside sources – including 47% from Mexico and 23% from Canada between 2017 and 2020 – many see it as suspect that silver was “conspicuously absent from official critical materials lists published by the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Geological Survey in 2022,” the report noted.



“Neither silver nor gold made the cut,” they added. “This absence has sparked debate, as silver’s strategic importance continues to grow across multiple industries, with demand surging globally.”



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“With silver’s critical applications and growing industrial demand, many experts question whether its exclusion might warrant a reassessment,” the report said.



Indeed, this topic has become increasingly prominent in recent months as multiple countries have moved to label silver as a strategically important metal.



As reported previously by Kitco News, a draft copy of Russia’s federal budget indicates that the Russian government is looking to expand its holdings to include silver and platinum group metals.



“The formation of a reserve of refined precious metals as part of the State Fund of Russia will help ensure a balanced federal budget and stable economic development, as well as meet the industrial needs of the Russian Federation in the event of an emergency,” the Ministry of Finance was quoted in an article by Interfax, translated to English from Russian.



According to a report from Chinese media, “This is also the first time that Russia has explicitly mentioned silver as one of its reserve assets in its budget plan, indicating that silver is beginning to occupy an important position in Russia’s strategic resource reserve planning… As an energy powerhouse, Russia has a significant impact on world resource prices. Given the current turbulent international situation and stronger expectations for inflation in the future, other countries may also follow suit, which will undoubtedly generate strong demand for precious metals.”



The report added that while “silver, platinum, and palladium have remained severely undervalued in historical periods,” and “although the short-term impact on the market is not significant, from a long-term perspective of three to five years, these severely undervalued assets happen to have more investment value.”



And regarding the ongoing BRICS summit and reports indicating that the bloc plans to launch BRICS pay this coming Thursday, the Chinese media report said, “If this new payment system is linked to assets such as gold and silver, it will increase the monetary attributes of these precious metal assets, thereby also driving up the prices of precious metals such as silver.”



“One of the reasons Russia is now deploying reserves to metals like silver, platinum, and palladium is that these all have military applications,” wrote X user Weimar Silver Pilgrim. “It’s technically unknown, but most missiles are said to contain 10-20 oz of silver apiece.”



“In a STUNNING move, Russia's central bank has just become the 1st in recent times to announce #silver purchases,” noted X user Make Gold Great Again. “With only 3 oz of above ground #silver per human, other central banks better hurry before this #SilverSqueeze trend goes VIRAL AND STOCKS RUN OUT. Overheard by one uber-chic bank Chairman: ‘Silver is THE must-have central bank accessory this fall.’”



“Been saying BRICS/East has a very different historical relationship with silver than the West.

And now, Russia announced plans for silver,” added X user Graddhy. “Silver´s journey to become a part of the new coming global monetary system has now started, and it will drive the 3rd bull move.”



Both China and India have also been making strategic moves relating to silver, in what some have suggested is a calculated move by the two largest countries by population to drain the West of its silver reserves in response to years of price suppression, with many pointing to silver’s use in military applications as the impetus behind U.S. efforts to keep its price at lower levels.



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As for the implications for the silver market, the report suggested that “The combination of significant military demand and diverse industrial applications could have profound implications for the silver market.”



“With substantial demand from both military and industrial sectors, the silver market may be tighter than previously thought,” they said. “ As awareness of total demand grows, it could drive silver prices higher. Silver's strategic importance in military and industrial applications may lead to increased government interest in securing supplies. And Questions arise about the accuracy and completeness of official silver demand data.”



“The true strategic importance of silver in military and industrial applications may be far greater than publicly acknowledged, making it a critical resource for national security, technological advancement, and industrial growth,” the report concluded. “The interplay between military demand, industrial applications, and investment interest will likely shape the future of the silver market, potentially leading to a significant revaluation of this versatile and indispensable metal.” https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-10-22/silvers-secret-military-demand-hidden-force-driving-price-growth#google_vignette $GLD

Gold Targets Lower Levels Amid Bearish Signals
By: Bruce Powers | November 26, 2024

• Gold’s correction deepens as bearish patterns dominate, targeting 2,470 where indicators converge, if weakness persists.

Gold fell back below a lower rising channel line on Monday and then stayed below it today, Tuesday. It reached a low of 2,605 following a drop below yesterday’s low before finding support. That low completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,607.

This puts the precious metal in a bearish position following a sharp rally last week. The five-day counter-trend advance ended on Friday with gold in a strong position, above a minor interim swing high of 2,710. Nonetheless, the rally ended on Monday following a slight new high of 2,721. Sellers took back control from there, leading to an enthusiastic drop.



Drops Below Key Levels is Bearish

Although last week’s rally was persistent and saw the price of gold reclaim a rising trendline and two moving average lines, Monday’s sharp drop to a five-day low and weak close negated any bullish indications that may have occurred. For example, potential resistance on the way up was quickly overcome as gold reclaimed a rising channel line, the 50-Day line (orange), now at 2,666, and the 20-Day MA (purple), currently at 2,662, one day at a time.

Those lines represent key potential resistance areas currently, as the correction sets up for a continuation lower. In addition to a new daily close below the moving averages and trend channel, notice that the 20-Day MA is starting to cross below 50-Day MA.

Falling ABCD Pattern Points to 2,470

Since Monday generated a lower swing high, a descending ABCD pattern has been added to the chart in case the correction evolves to a new swing low. Certainly, given yesterday’s bearish close and again today, below the rising trendline, rallies may be met with resistance that leads to lower prices.

The initial target from the pattern, where there is 100% symmetry in the price change between the two falling swings, AB and CD, is at 2,470. Since that price level coincides with both a 61.8% Fibonacci level at 2,473 and a previous support and resistance zone, it becomes a lower target. Further, an uptrend line also goes through that price area and should be watched for signs of support if gold does continue to weaken.

Descending Channel May Lead to Decline Below 2,537

A declining parallel trend channel is shown on the chart by taking the top trendline and making a parallel level to touch the recent swing low at 2,537. It can provide a guide as gold progresses. For example, resistance can be anticipated at or below the top channel line. Additionally, if gold gets above that line and stays above it, demand would be improving rather than declining. The bearish case would be retained if gold stayed below the top downtrend line.

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Gold prices face local peak, silver is the better set-up now – TD Securities’ Ghali

$GLD over to Silver

Peak Gold—Evidence And Implications https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesfinancecouncil/2023/12/13/peak-gold-evidence-and-implications/ $GLD

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 23, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 234.4k, down 2.1k.



Four weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Gold then dropped the next couple of weeks. Last Thursday, it ticked $2,542 intraday, and that generated buying interest.

Earlier, on October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802, having begun to rally in June at $2,305. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.

Last Thursday’s defense of $2,540s-50s laid the foundation for this week’s 5.5-percent jump to $2,712/ounce. More gains are likely ahead, with immediate resistance at $2,740s, which was decisively breached on the 6th.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27122 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. As of now, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 yet it is trading below last month's close of 27493.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26882 and overhead resistance forming above at 27127. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.964%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

DiscoverGold

Gold surges for a fifth day in a row, its longest winning streak since April, and after rising 1.7% back over $2700 it is once again just shy of all time highs.

zerohedge@zerohedge


The Magic Of Classic US Gold & Silver Coins:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/magic-classic-us-gold-silver-coins

Gold Buyers Hold Ground as Gold Tests Critical Price Levels
By: Bruce Powers | November 21, 2024

• Gold climbed above the 50-Day MA to $2,674 but faces key resistance levels, with potential consolidation or bearish pullback if strength wanes.

Gold busted through the 50-Day MA on Thursday, reaching a high of 2,674 before stalling the ascent. That high was around potential resistance of the 20-Day MA at 2,677. A daily close above the 50-Day line at 2,661 will indicate greater strength than a close below it. The 20-Day line may continue to act as resistance but there are also a couple identified price levels a little higher at 2,686 and 2,692.

If gold can continue to rally, a daily close above the 20-Day line would provide the next indication of strength, followed by a daily close above 2,692. Until there is a daily close above last week’s high of 2,686, however, the expectation remains for an eventual bearish pullback once significant resistance is encountered.



Testing Resistance Around 20-Day MA

The 20-Day MA had done a good job of defining trend support before the breakdown, since it was reclaimed on August 8. Notice that last week’s breakdown fell through the 20-Day MA at the same time as the internal uptrend line was broken to the downside. Further weakness was indicated on the drop below the 50-Day MA and then the next lower uptrend line. Therefore, a pullback looks likely once prior support levels are tested as resistance. That could occur at the levels noted above, including the 2,710-swing high. For now, the buyers remain in charge.

Near-term Support at 2,648

A decline below today’s high of 2,648 signal weakness and the possibility of a deeper pullback. The prior swing low, also a monthly low, looks to be the first key support level that may be tested on the way down. Both the low from Wednesday at 2,619 and from Tuesday at 2,610 can also be watched for signs of further weakness or potential support that is above the swing low.

Inside Week Likely

Gold will likely end this week with an inside week pattern. Until gold either drops through the bottom of the week at 2,564 or the top, currently at 2,674 (week not over), it will remain inside the week’s range and therefore choppy trading and consolidation on the shorter daily time frame may dominate for a little while. As noted previously, this week’s low bounced right off a test of the support at the 20-Week MA, while last week’s low closed at support of the moving average last week after a minor dip below the line.

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Go for gold says Goldman Sachs; prices still on track to hit $3,000 by year-end 2025 $GLD

Gold Recovery Eyes 50-Day MA Amid Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | November 19, 2024

• Gold continues its recovery, heading to test resistance near the 50-Day MA, with a confluence zone higher between 2,684 and 2,692.

Gold made further progress on Tuesday towards a test of resistance around the 50-Day MA, as it broke above Monday’s high and will likely close above it. The high for the day so far is 2,639 and the 50-Day line is at 2,656. Today’s advance also reclaimed the uptrend line and gold may close above the line, which would provide another sign of strength, although minor. Gold could have seen signs of resistance around the line but instead it didn’t look like it mattered as the day’s high of 2,639 was a little above the line.



Counter-Trend Rally Advances

It looks like gold completed a swing low with last week’s low of 2,537. A bullish reversal confirmed with yesterday’s strong advance. The swing low was around the 50% retracement and a prior top. Gold completed a 253 point or 9.1% correction at the low. That’s the biggest drop on a percentage basis since the May 2023 correction.

Even if the low is set for the correction, that doesn’t mean gold goes right back up to new highs. Of course it could, but the more likely scenario looks to be a rally of some degree to test prior support levels as resistance levels. Once resistance is found there will be a pullback and another attempt to reclaim the price level, or a reversal that falls to retest support levels.

Confluence Leaves Clues

One of the reasons that confluence is looked for in technical analysis is that it helps identify potentially stronger levels of support or resistance. Confluence is when two or more (preferred) price levels are identified by analysis near each other. This seems to act like a magnet for price sometimes. For gold, the price range from the confluence of various indicators highlights 2,684 to 2,692. There is the 20-Day MA at 2,684, a prior swing high at 2,686, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,692. If that price zone does act like a magnet, then gold will reclaim the 50-Day MA on the way up.

As for the bullish case for gold beyond the 20-Day MA, it first needs to close above the 20-Day line. Until then, the expectation is for some time to go by first, starting the current rally and test of possible resistance.

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$GLD $1.1 Million OTM Calls
By: Cheddar Flow | November 19, 2024

• $GLD & $TSLA $1M+ OTM Calls

These orders were both executed above the ask, signaling urgency



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Gold Rush: How Russia is using gold in wartime
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3230-1.html $GLD

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 16, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 236.5k, down 18.9k.



The week began by gold slicing through its 50-day on Monday. This was then followed by four more sessions of selling, ending the week down 4.6 percent to $2,570/ounce.

A couple of weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Since then, the metal has dropped back-to-back. On October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s eight weeks ago, $2,540s-50s nine weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August.

Gold bugs can take solace in the fact that $2,540s-50s remains intact, with Thursday’s intraday drop to $2,542 attracting buying interest. The daily has gotten oversold, so a rally is possible. Else, bears will be eyeing $2,440s-50s, with the 200-day at $2,409.

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thanks but I can open the full story
WHich month and strik did they buy and what was the price paid

NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 25701 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 26188.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 25957.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.290% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25415 which still remains 10.29% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5074 made 1926 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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Gold Hold Support That Could Lead to a Bounce
By: Bruce Powers | November 15, 2024

• After testing support near 2,532, gold eyes resistance at 2,619 while contending with the impact of significant technical breakdowns from earlier this week.

Gold traded inside day on Friday, with a high of 2,581 and a low of 2,554. That range is contained with the price range from Thursday. Today’s price action represents a rest following the successful test of support yesterday. Yesterday ended with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. However, the pattern needs a trigger to be valid and that would happen on a rally above Thursday’s high of 2,581.



Support Holds Around Prior High

Support was seen yesterday around prior resistance at the August high of 2,532 and a 50% retracement level at 2,534. Also, notice that an extended bottom channel line from a prior bull flag formation also identifies possible support around yesterday’s lows. So, there is some technical evidence pointing to a possible bottom that could at least lead to a bounce. But first an advance above yesterday’s high is needed.

Breakdown of Rising Channel May Take Time to Recover

The current correction did some technical damage on the way down that may need a little time to be fully resolved. There was a decisive decline below the 50-Day MA, internal uptrend line, and a prior daily swing low that is also a monthly low. It was the first time in nine months that a prior monthly low had been broken to the downside. Moreover, the drop through the trendline triggered a breakdown of a rising parallel trend channel.

The channel represented some degree of symmetry and now that symmetry has been broken. It also improves the chance that gold may eventually test support around the lower rising uptrend line. That would be a natural progression of price following such a clear channel break. The price represented by the line would depend on when it was reached.

Bullish Reversal Above 2,619

A bullish reversal from yesterday’s lows has gold heading up into potential resistance at the prior swing low of 2,600, then Thursday’s high at 2,619. Thursday’s high can be used as a rough proxy for the trendline price for now. Then there is the 50-Day MA at 2,652, currently. Given the potential significance of the breakdowns, it would not be surprising to see a rally into resistance, to be followed by a drop that tests the week’s lows and possibly breaks below it. That scenario may start to change on a daily close above the 50-Day MA.

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$GLD $1.7 Million Far OTM Call (Very Unusual)
By: Cheddar Flow | November 15, 2024

• $GLD $1.7M Far OTM Call (Very Unusual)

This was bought to open and executed above the ask.



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Gold Bullish Hammer Pattern Hints at Potential Recovery
By: Bruce Powers | November 14, 2024

• After reaching a new trend low, gold bounced back, forming a bullish pattern that may signal a bottom if support at 2,537 holds.

Gold looks to be trying to establish a bottom as it fell to a new trend low of 2,537 on Thursday before buyers took back control and generated a strong bounce. This puts gold on track to end the day forming a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Support was seen in an area previously discussed around the August high of 2,532 and the 50% retracement level at 2,534.

Also, notice that today’s low was near the lower extended trendline from an earlier bull flag formation. In other words, today’s low is a logical area to find resistance that may lead to a sustained bullish reversal



Bullish Reversal Indicated Above 2,681

A bullish reversal will be triggered on a decisive rally above today’s high of 2,681, at the time of this writing. Some technical damage was done during the current decline as support failed first at the 20-Day MA, then the 50-Day MA failed. That was followed by a monthly bearish reversal of October’s price range on a drop below the daily swing low of 2,602, which was also the monthly low.

Those indicators all show potential resistance levels on the way up, assuming today’s low is sustained. If it is not and today’s low is broken to the downside, then crude oil looks likely to approach a possible support zone from 2,484 to 2,473. The top level is a prior resistance top, and it is followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Brief Dip Below 20-Week Moving Average

It is also interesting to note that the drop today briefly put the price of crude oil below the 20-Week MA (not shown), which is at 2,556. The 20-Week MA maintained support almost 100% of the time since it was reclaimed during the week of October 16. It provides additional evidence for a potential low today, at least on a temporary basis. And it has proven to be a viable trend indicator and should continue to do so. This means that a drop below today’s low will also further confirm a breakdown of the long-term weekly moving average.

Rise Above 2,619 Needed

Crude oil needs to rally above and stay above Wednesday’s high of 2,619 to have a chance at going higher. Resistance around the internal uptrend will also need to be watched as it is currently around yesterday’s high. That trendline should provide clues as it is also the bottom support line for a rising parallel trend channel. The channel shows symmetry within the uptrend. That symmetry was broken on the drop below the lower line, and the next lower trendline is down a bit on the way to the 200-Day MA at 2,398.

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Gold Sinks to New Low, Bearish Trend Gains Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | November 13, 2024

• Gold continues its downtrend, breaking through major support levels, with key price levels of 2,534 and 2,484 in focus as selling pressure remains high.

Selling again dominated trading in gold on Wednesday as it fell to a new trend low of 2,575. Also, it continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and may fall further before the end of the day. The bearish correction saw gold drop through the 50-Day MA on Monday, an uptrend line and monthly low at 2,602 on Tuesday, and reach a new low today. Downward momentum has been steady with lower prices likely. A daily close below the prior trend low of 2,590 will further confirm the bear trend.



Targets 50% Retracement at 2,534

Indications are that gold is heading towards a test of support around the 50% retracement at 2,534 and prior resistance at 2,532. The lower price was also the highest traded price for August. Also, 2,532 begins a price range down to approximately 2,484. Support might be seen anywhere within that range. Subsequently, the next lower target looks to be a range from 2,484 to 2,473. The first price level is a prior trend high from July, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,473.

Monthly Bearish Reversal Triggered

Following a break below the October low yesterday, natural gas confirmed the breakdown by ending the day below the monthly low. The monthly trend of higher monthly highs and higher lows has persisted for eight months until now. This is a bearish sign on the larger time frame indicating further selling pressure for the precious metal.

Downtrend Progresses

Notice that resistance today was seen at a high of 2,619, a clear test of resistance at the internal trendline. The line was previously representing support but since the drop below the line this week, it now represents potential resistance. And it acted as an area of resistance today as gold turned back down once it was hit. In a downtrend, once support is broken and then subsequently successfully tested as resistance, the decline is ready to proceed.

That is what we see today. Since the close for today will likely occur in the lower quarter of the day’s price range and below yesterday’s low of 2,590, sellers remain clearly in charge. So, the next lower target zone is looking more likely to be reached before this correction is over.

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Gold Decline Deepens, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | November 12, 2024

• Gold's bearish trend deepens as it breaks key support levels, signaling potential for an extended correction to the 2,532 zone.

Gold continued its bearish retracement on Tuesday, with a new low of 2,590 before it encountered at least short-term support. Two key price indicators were broken on the way down, the internal uptrend line and a prior swing low, which is also a monthly low.

Gold looks like it will be closing weak, in the red and below the trendline. A daily close below the line improves the chance for an eventual retracement down to the previous breakout level around 2,532. Also, a daily close below the monthly low 2,602 would be bearish.



Second Week of Correction

A new record high of 2,790 for gold was reached two weeks ago. It was quickly followed by a pullback that continues. The weekly pattern was the giveaway. That week closed as a bearish reversal doji shooting star (not shown) and a bearish signal triggered last week. This week is the second week down and it shows no sign of reversing.

Gold is in a waterfall type decline that could certainly test lower prices before it is done. Bearish sentiment was recently reflected in the 20-Day MA recently crossing below the 50-Day after being above it since July 3. Moreover, a daily close below the 2,602 monthly lows may prolong the correction.

Monthly Price Levels

The monthly price patterns have significance as they impact on the shorter time frames. Today is the first instance in nine months of a prior month’s low being violated. Starting in March, gold progressed with a series of higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs, largely. That pattern was violated today and if the breakdown continues to be confirmed it could lead to a deeper and longer correction in the price of gold.

Lower Targets?

The 2,532-price zone has a good chance of being reached if downward pressure in the price of gold continues. There is also an interim price zone to watch around 2,557 to 2,551, consisting of the 20-Week MA and the 127.2% extended target for an intraday falling ABCD pattern. The 20-Week MA is a potentially significant support area as it last marked support in early-August. It has largely seen gold traded above it since October 2023.

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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 9, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 255.3k, down 23.3k.



Last week, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. It was a sign of exhaustion, and the metal gave back two percent this week to $2,695/ounce. From gold bugs’ perspective, the good thing is that Thursday’s low of $2,650 was bought, with the 50-day ($2,662) breached intraday but defended by close.

On the daily, it is possible gold rallies a bit more, but it remains way overbought on the weekly.

Before this week’s decline, the yellow metal rallied relentlessly from June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts – $2,610s seven weeks ago, $2,540s-50s eight weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August. These are all potential supports now.

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$GOLD $GLD - Slipped its Daily 50/MA (Green). Looks less like a W-(4) with 5-Waves down but will give it the benefit while its above that Lwr-Parallel. If that fails then we are looking at a deeper pullback...
By: Sahara | November 8, 2024

• $GOLD $GLD - Slipped its Daily 50/MA (Green).

Looks less like a W-(4) with 5-Waves down but will give it the benefit while its above that Lwr-Parallel. If that fails then we are looking at a deeper pullback...



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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 9, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26948 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Up to now, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 27334 and support forming below at 26834. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.407% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 26503 which still remains 15.02% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 24565 and 28257. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26544. Additional support is to be found at 26462. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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Gold Plunges Below Key Levels as Bearish Momentum Builds
By: Bruce Powers | November 6, 2024

• Gold plunges post-election, breaking key support at 20-Day MA and eyeing a retest of 50-Day MA near 2,638 for potential support.

Gold fell hard on Wednesday following the U.S. Presidential Election, reaching a low of 2,652. It fell through initial support levels at the 20-MA at 2,714 and the prior trend high and top of a bull flag pattern at 2,686. Today will likely end with a wide-ranging red candle and a weak close. At the time of this writing, gold continues to trade near the lows of the day and looks likely to close in the lower quarter of the day’s price range.



Bearish Momentum Accelerates

Given the accelerated downward momentum seen today, it looks like gold is heading for a retest of support around the 50-Day MA at 2,638, if not lower. The next lower pivot is at the bottom of the bull flag at 2,600. That low is also a higher swing low and therefore part of the price structure of the rising near-term trend. If it fails to hold as support and gold falls lower, a violation of the trend structure will occur thereby providing another bearish sign.

Targeting 50-Day Moving Average at 2,638

Nonetheless, the higher 50-Day MA has a good chance of seeing support. The 50-Day line was reclaimed in early-July after natural gas traded below the line for about 17 days. After the subsequent rally a pullback successfully tested support around the 50-Day line with a couple minor swing lows. Following the August 5 test of the 50-Day line, the bull trend accelerated, and the faster 20-Day MA began to identify support for the rising trend.

Trend Channel Failed Breakout

Let’s also consider the rising parallel trend channel with the lower line beginning from the mid-February swing low. A parallel of the trendline was then connected to where multiple highs and lows hit the line, as shown on the chart with red and green arrows. Subsequently, the market recognized resistance around the top channel line around the September high and then again with the most recent record high of 2,790.

The rally into new highs indicated a potential bullish breakout of the channel. Of course, given today’s bearish price action, a failed breakout has happened instead. Now that a bullish breakout has failed and key 20-Day MA trend support is broken, there is always the potential that gold falls to the lower uptrend line of the channel. When it is reached, if it is, will determine whether the 2,600-swing low is tested.

Weekly Bearish Pattern Triggered Today

As mentioned again yesterday, the weekly candlestick pattern (not shown) for last week was bearish. Gold ended with a doji shooting star formation that triggered below last week’s low of 2,725. The breakdown triggered today, and the subsequent bearish performance is what might be expected from such a weekly pattern.

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Gold 20-Day MA Support Faces Crucial Test
By: Bruce Powers | November 5, 2024

• Gold sees continued weakness, likely leading to a test of support near the 20-Day moving average as traders assess recent bearish signals and key support zones.

Gold dipped to a new pullback low of 2,725 on Tuesday as it continued to see weakness following a bearish one-day reversal last Thursday. Since then, momentum has died down as seen in the recent narrow range days. Gold looks to be on its way to test support around the 20-Day MA, now at 2,711.

The fact that it is doing so slowly may be an indication that underlying demand remains strong. If so, support at the 20-Day line might hold and lead to a bullish reversal. The potential significance of the 20-Day line is enhanced by the internal uptrend line that marks a similar price area.



Key Levels Seen at 20-Day MA

Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed on August 8, it has done a good job of identifying trend support. There were a couple times since that gold fell below the line, but it didn’t last long. Therefore, support may be seen again around the 20-Day line. If it does not, and gold falls below the 20-Day line and stays there, it will highlight weakness and will improve the chance for a test of support around the 50-Day MA at 2,633.

However, potential support around the recent trend high and top of a bull flag pattern at 2,686, needs to also be considered. So, this means that if a decline below the 20-Day line occurs, watch the price action relative to the prior couple of times gold fell below the line since early-August, along with the 2,686-price zone.

Weekly Bearish Pattern a Concern

There is concern about a bearish pattern in the weekly chart for gold. Last week, a bearish doji shooting star pattern completed and the week closed below the previous record close of 2,747 from the week before. A bearish weekly breakdown triggers below last week’s low of 2,725. That would increase the chance of testing support around the 20-Day MA and the 2,686-prior high. However, if it is to trigger, it may not happen this week. It is too early to tell but there is a possibility that gold stays inside last week’s range until the close this week.

Finally, be aware that there have been two reversal days since a bull flag breakout triggered on October 15. There was an outside down day on October 23 and a sharp one-day bearish reversal to a three-day low on October 31.

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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 2, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 278.7k, down 17.6k.



Gold just flashed first signs of exhaustion. This week’s weekly gravestone doji showed up after six up weeks in seven, falling 0.2 percent to $2,749/ounce and posting a new high of $2,802 on Wednesday.

The metal has rallied relentlessly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Six weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

Before the first layer of support at $2,610s gets tested, gold bugs’ mettle is likely to be tested just north of $2,700.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 2, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27492 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27291 and overhead resistance forming above at 27520. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 28018 to 27369. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 28018. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 27762 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26366 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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Gold Signals Potential Downturn with Bearish Candlestick Patterns
By: Bruce Powers | November 1, 2024

• Gold may extend losses after forming a bearish doji; critical support lies at 2,700 with further declines likely if breached.

Gold took a rest on Friday and traded inside day with a high of 2,762 and a low of 2,733. However, at the time of this writing it continues to trade near the lows of the day and may end the day lower. The day’s range is largely contained within the lower half of yesterday’s trading range, which can be considered bearish.

Also, notice the developing bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, although not at the high of a trend. It reflects bearish behavior for the day and the potential for a continuation lower.



Breakdown in Process

Yesterday, gold dropped below a short trendline that marks trend support for a tight consolidation pattern from the past couple of weeks. That put it at risk of moving into a bearish correction, especially since the day’s close was in the lower third of the day’s price range. Today’s bearish candle is additional evidence for a possible bearish continuation.

Subsequently, a decline below yesterday’s low of 2,732 will likely lead to a test of lower support areas. The first being a range from 2,700 to 2,686, consisting of the 20-Day MA, and a prior trend high and bull flag high, respectively. Moreover, an internal uptrend line is pointing to a similar price area. If it fails to stop the descent, the 50-Day MA at 2,624, along with the bottom of the flag at 2.60, become likely targets.

Weekly Chart Ending Bearish

Of greater concern is what is shown on the weekly chart (not included). Gold is set to complete a bearish doji shooting star candlestick pattern today. And it is set to close weak, in the lower third of the week’s trading range. A decisive drop below this week’s low of 2,725 will trigger a breakdown of the weekly pattern and therefore a bearish weekly reversal.

It would be confirmed on a daily close below the low. The next lower potential weekly support level would be last week’s low of 2,709. Also, keep an eye on the three-week low at 2,638 if gold continues to fall. Gold is very overbought on the weekly relative strength index (RSI) and shows a minor bearish divergence in the daily time frame.

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Gold $GLD - I did warn end of last week we may need a wee rest before attacking $2800 after pulsing +70%...
By: Sahara | October 31, 2024

• $GOLD $GLD - I did warn end of last week we may need a wee rest before attacking $2800 after pulsing +70%...



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Bullish Momentum Builds in Gold as New Resistance Looms
By: Bruce Powers | October 30, 2024

• Gold advances to another record high, with potential resistance zones emerging as bullish momentum faces a possible resistance zone.

Gold trended higher on Wednesday as it advanced above yesterday’s high to a new record high of 2,790. However, trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing, and a higher price may be reached before the close. If gold closes relatively strong, above the halfway point of the day’s range, which is at 2,780 if the high is final, a breakout of a rising parallel trend channel will be further confirmed.



Bullish Channel Breakout Confirmed

An initial breakout of the channel triggered yesterday, and the day closed above the channel line. As can be seen marked on the chart with red and green arrows, the area of the top channel line was hit as either support or resistance more than seven times, including most recently at last week’s high. Moreover, today’s low of 2,771 shows a successful test of support at the line and price was rejected to the upside.

Potential Resistance Sits at 2,797 to 2,815

Today’s bullish price advance puts gold in a good position to challenge the next identified potential resistance zone. It looks to begin at 2,797, which is the 200% extended retracement of the significant decline that began from the 2011 peak. Whether that relationship leads to resistance remains to be seen.

An initial target derived from measuring the recent bull flag points to the top of the range at 2,815. Along with a couple other price levels in between, a range from around 2,797 to 2,815 is identified as a possible price zone where supply may increase and stall the ascent or lead to a retracement.

Possible Time Symmetry Approaching

Regarding the recent bull flag pattern, since the first advance following the September 4 swing low ended after three weeks up on the weekly chart (not shown), the current second advance of the flag could do the same. After three weeks the potential for time symmetry exists as the two rallies will match after three weeks.

If this is to occur, it would be supportive of the possibility of completing the next identified targets this week. Furthermore, if the pattern holds, the high this week may be followed by a pullback or consolidation phase. If it does note advance would be getting extended based on time.

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Gold Rallies Towards Higher Targets Amid Strong Demand
By: Bruce Powers | October 29, 2024

• Gold reached a record high on strong momentum, targeting the next key resistance levels if strength can be sustained.

Enthusiasm for gold intensified on Tuesday as it broke out to a new record high. And it is on track to close strong, in the top third of the day’s price range. At the time of this writing, gold had reached a new record high of 2,773, which followed support for the day at 2,740. Today’s bullish price action puts gold in a favorable position to rally towards the next higher target zone. But that depends on seeing further signs of strength for gold.



Breakout of Rising Channel

Notice that gold is trading around a top parallel channel line that is copied from the lower rising trendline and connects two previous swing highs. Resistance had been seen around that top line recently and it could yet again. Gold has yet to fully break out above the line and therefore it may show further signs of resistance. If gold continues to strengthen it is likely heading for the next higher target zone. That may entail a rise above and away from the top line or an ascent the continues at a similar slope and retains the channel line as resistance.

Targets 2,797 to 2,815

The next higher target zone is from 2,797 to 2,815. It includes several important levels by themselves but potentially more significant when clustered together. The top level of 2,815 is the target from the recent bullish flag pattern breakout. It is a key level as the next potential target zone above there indicates a possible jump to 2,846.

Otherwise, resistance may be seen on the approach to 2,815. Both other two price levels, 2,797 and 2,808, are determined from long-term extended Fibonacci levels. One pattern measurement starts in 2022, and the other in 2011. There is also a very short-term pattern target within the same price range at 2,801.

Near-term Support Levels

Near-term potential support is at the prior high of 2,758, followed by today’s low of 2,740. If the 2,740 level fails to hold as support the chance for a deeper retracement increases. The key near-term trend indicator remains the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,685. Notice that it has converged with prior resistance at the top of the recent bull flag. Since the 20-Day line seems to be tracking the internal uptrend line, it can be given a little added significance.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 26, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27546 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27726 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27378 and overhead resistance forming above at 27633. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 27726, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27726 to 27221. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27726 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27726. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27474 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 26, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 296.2k, up 9.8k.



There is no stopping the yellow metal, rallying this week 0.9 percent to $2,755/ounce, tagging $2,773 on Wednesday. This was the third up week in a row – and sixth in last seven.

Gold has rallied strongly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Five weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

If one were to nitpick, the daily RSI has made lower highs even as gold went on to add $100 in the past month.

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Gold $GLD - Nearing that $2800 Target...
By: Sahara | October 25, 2024

• $GOLD $GLD - Nearing that $2800 Target.

May need a wee rest after pulsing +70% from the low in the 'Handle'. Whether it will do it now or screech hghr for the $2800-3000 Levels first remains to be seen...



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silver market is experiencing a shortage, with a projected deficit of 215.3 million ounces in 2024. This is due to a combination of factors, including:
Demand: Global demand for silver is expected to increase by 2% in 2024, driven by industrial consumption.
Supply: Supply is expected to decrease by 1% in 2024.
Investment: The pool of silver available for investors is a small fraction of the total silver produced.
The silver shortage is expected to continue for a fourth year in a row. Silver is used in many products, including electronics, jewelry, solar panels, and electric vehicles.
Some analysts predict that silver prices will rise to new all-time highs in 2024. The shortage is expected to put pressure on prices, which could encourage new mine production or draw silver out of private hoards. $GLD

Gold Faces Pullback After Reversal, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | October 24, 2024

• Gold’s short-term pullback follows a bearish reversal from a record high. Traders now watch key support levels to assess if the bullish trend will continue or a longer rest comes first.

Gold consolidated on Thursday to trade inside day. That follows a bearish reversal day yesterday that has the potential to lead to a deeper decline. The reversal day followed a new record high of 2,758 that was hit earlier in the day. Subsequently, sellers took control and drove the price down below the prior day’s low of 2,719, which is where gold closed the session. This is short-term bearish price action that typically leads to a pullback of some degree. The degree will help provide clues as to the underlying strength or weakness in gold.



Top Channel Line Stops Ascent

Notice that resistance was seen around the combination of a 250% extended retracement level at 2,754 and the top rising parallel trend channel line. However, given the potential for higher targets a bullish continuation above this week’s high is anticipated following a period of consolidation or a pullback. Gold recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern, after a final test of the 20-Day MA as support, on October 15.

A measuring objective from the flag formation points to an eventual target of 2,815. But it is not only the flag identifying that price area. There are two other Fibonacci measurements confirming the price area. One points to 2,797 and the other to 2,808. Together, the above price levels generate a potential upside target zone from 2,797 to 2,815.

Watching for Inside Day Breakout

A breakout of the inside day, either up or down, will point to the next direction other than a false signal. Today’s high or resistance was at 2,743 and the low was 2,714. More importantly, the high of 2,758 and low at 2,709 from Wednesday provide more significant price levels to gauge strength or weakness. Key support levels are the recent trend breakout area of 2,686 and the 20-Day MA at 2,670. Either could present strong support.

Above 20-Day MA Retains Bullish Outlook

As long as the price of gold stays above the 20-Day MA during a pullback, the outlook for gold remains bullish. If gold falls below the 20-Day line and stays there are continues to fall, the 50-Day MA at 2,594 becomes a target. Notice that that 50-Day line has been rising and is on track to converge with support at the bottom of the flag pattern, at 2,602.

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Military applications of silver, often under-reported or omitted from official data, include:

Rockets and missiles
Bombs and shells
Fighter jets
Satellites
Tanks and submarines
Torpedoes
Night vision goggles
Communications devices
Radar systems
Space technology
Nuclear technology

https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/precious-metals/article-824693 #silversqueeze $GLD

Yea, but it's pretty. Using it as Jewelry allows them to use more gold for stuff like electronics.

Then it’s not real gold
I would think that would be common sense

https://www.iflscience.com/new-form-of-labmade-gold-is-better-and-golder-than-natures-pathetic-version-48663

from 2700?

Gold to $10,000 per oz? Hmm. Gold Price Forecast – Expert Predicts $10,000 Gold and $300 Silver https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-forecast-expert-predicts-10000-gold-and-300-silver-1382665 $GLD

Highly Unusual $GLD OTM Call Print...
By: Cheddar Flow | October 21, 2024

• Highly Unusual $GLD OTM Call Print

This was bought to open (Vol>OI) and had 18,800 contracts executed at the ask for the Nov 8th expiration



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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 19, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 286.4k, up 8.3k.



After three tentative weekly candles – shooting star, spinning top and dragonfly doji – gold yet again shone this week, up a solid two percent to $2,730/ounce, which set a fresh high.

The yellow metal has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, it enjoyed one after another breakout.

Four weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

This week’s breakout followed a defense of $2,610s last week.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27300 and is trading up about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27378 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26947.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 14th at 27378, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27378 to 26544. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27378 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27378. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 26596 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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Gold Hits Record High of $2,721, Eyes on Higher Targets
By: Bruce Powers | October 18, 2024

• Surging to $2,721, gold shows strong bullish momentum with key targets at $2,754 and $2,815, supported by a breakout from the bull flag pattern.

Gold prices continued to strengthen on Friday, reaching a new record high of 2,721. Buyers remain in charge at the time of this writing as the precious metal continues to trade near the highs for the day. Today’s bullish price action shows upward momentum improving relative to the prior three days since the initial breakout of a bull flag trend continuation pattern. Notice the wider trading range today relative to the prior three days. A strong daily and weekly close today will put gold in a solid technical position to challenge higher potential targets.



First Target is 2,724

The first target zone is the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern at 2,724, as shown on the chart in purple. It would be an obvious location to begin to see resistance that might lead to a pullback. Subsequently, if it is exceeded, 2,754 is next up on the agenda. Reaching that price level completes a 250% extended retracement of the bearish correction that began from the March 2022 peak. Also, keep an eye on the top parallel channel rising trendline as it may provide additional clues when the two price levels are approached.

Bull Flag Points to 2,815

Nonetheless, a higher potential target at 2,815 is derived from calculating the measuring objective for the bull flag. The breakout for the flag triggered following a successful test of support at the 20-Day MA earlier in session. That was the launch pad. There is also a slightly earlier target a little lower than the flag target at 2,797. That price level will compete a 200% retracement of the bearish correction that began from the 2011 peak at 1,921.

First Support to Watch at 2,686 Breakout Level

On the downside, a decline below today’s low of 2,692 indicates short-term weakness and could lead to a deeper pullback. The breakout to new highs occurred above 2,686 and it is an obvious potential target to be tested as support. Nonetheless, if it happens before new highs for gold a deeper pullback seems likely given that there has only been one bullish follow-through day, which was today. Key is going to be the 20-Day MA. Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed on August 8, it has done a good job of identifying an area of trend support. Therefore, it should continue to do so and if it doesn’t, that is a warning sign.

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Gold is shining ‘bright like a diamond’ and could hit $3,000, says Citi
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/gold-is-shining-bright-like-a-diamond-and-could-hit-3000-says-citi-.html $GLD

Gold ETF $GLD Hits New All-Time High
By: Barchart | October 16, 2024

• Gold ETF $GLD Hits New All-Time High.



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Gold $GLD - Opted for that W-(4) (blue). Now needs to stretch for those Hghr Targets...
By: Sahara | October 16, 2024

• $GOLD $GLD - Opted for that W-(4) (blue).

Now needs to stretch for those Hghr Targets...



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