goofyfoot
18 years ago
I missed NMX at the high yesterday, but I settled for $124.67 today to sell the rest of my NMX position. Just getting a bad feeling, I guess, mainly because I think I'm going to miss the boat with my money tied up here, while MRVL goes up. So, I bought a bunch of MRVL. I figure it's about 1/6th the price of NMX, so if it goes up a dollar, it's like NMX going up six. By some accounts, it's going to break big in the next few months. I hope.
Jeez, I really hope so, this time!
teraflop
18 years ago
Sorry to hear what happened, Fishsurfer.
In Monday's move (Dec 4th) we moved like CME and GOOG, big changes in stock price for the day.
Friend of mine went short the market last week. I was tempted too but he acted and is now hurting though I still agree with the sentiment on the market in general. But nothing has changed with respect to NMX, I still think this has good potential. When I run its ratios (ROA, ROE, etc) against its peers I don't see much that jumps out wrong.
Unlike competitors in trucking or air travel, in my opinion, exchanges aren't sufficiently exposed to their markets. There's room for growth and currently it's not a zero-sum game (i.e., competition between LME & NMX & BOT = more products + more revenue + profit for each one, not less. For now).
Thanks for the link, in exchange, here's one. This chap I follow and read regularly: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/12/dennis_gartmans.html
Long & strong.
goofyfoot
18 years ago
It was a good day!
Didn't see this coming, though. Sold about half of my position on Friday, for an average of $117.50/share. Wish I would have waited, because I turned around and bought NYX with the proceeds, almost immediately. NYX went down today, over a dollar from where I bought it. Damnit.
I had heard that December 1st was the last day that you could claim a loss on stock trades on your tax return. Wasn't sure if this was true, and even did some research, but it really wasn't clear if this was the case. Still, I went ahead and sold. And bought.
Wish I had a crystal ball, but with the Dutch Bourse voting to merge with NYX on the 19th, so maybe it'll all work out.
I did find this, though (shhhh!): http://agoros.com
teraflop
18 years ago
I'll check the MRVL board, thanks for the tip on Syndicate Two. I'm actually bearish on the market in general, subject to any changes of course because its performance has astounded many the past 2 months. So I'll be interested in hearing the justification on the NASDAQ and QQQQ rising.
I re-ran the regression of NDAQ versus the S&P, sadly the slope of the regression line from July 5th to yesterday is 0.12136 with a correlation of only 0.4978 so the relationship is very weak. I also don't see, from a fundamentals standpoint, the linkage. However, we will benefit from exchanges moving upward, I've no doubt about it, but just have not much statistical evidence to rely on.
Good luck to all, NMX seems to be good for traders at least, volatility is good for them.
Long & strong.
goofyfoot
18 years ago
Another painful day for NMX, today. Ugh.
I see where you are going with those correlations, and like you say, they do seem to be temporary. On the InvestorsHub MRVL board, the moderator is this guy Syndicate Two, who says that the NASDAQ and the QQQQ are going to rise over the next next year. S2 is a fairly knowledgeable investor/economist (I think), although, well, he's where I got that "cheerleading" thing from.
Now, you were talking about index stock prices and not composite index prices. But, if the NAS gains another couple hundred points over the next six months, and NMX still loosely follows NDAQ, well, maybe NMX will go up, too?
I'm grabbing at straws here, because the temptation to sell here is pretty great. I could take my losses and buy, well, I really don't even know, at this point. If I had been a real risk taker, I would have sold all of my NMX positions, and bought NYX this morning. I'd be up almost $5/share, although proportionately, I'd still be down a whole lot. Still, I think NYX was just making up for a couple of bad days, so it probably won't continue.
I've just never been so disappointed with a stock in my life. After all the hype and the IPO being branded the best IPO of the year and all that, man, this is pretty harsh!
teraflop
18 years ago
Thoughts, ideas, and cheerleading...ok let's go.
My time horizon is longer on NMX and I am in pain on this trade so can feel for your own pain. I hate dead money but sometimes you get a pleasant surprise if you can afford to wait.
That being said, the risk to NMX as a stock is fund pullouts prior to the New Year. However, it still is in a solid business with, yes, tough competition, but NYMEX is a dominant player.
For the record, I ran some correlation matrices to see where we may be going. Based on the statistics (lies, more lies, etc), NMX only really correlated with the NDAQ since November 17th (IPO day) and NDAQ's own correlation with the S&P 500 was very low over the same period. It wasn't correlated with the other exchanges we compare it to. In the longer-term, the 1-year correlations show that the exchanges are very little correlated with the S&P and as a group they're not very correlated either. So I think NMX should still be valued on its own merits and its own story.
Here's the matrix for Nov 17, 2006-Nov 29, 2006:
NYX, NDAQ, CME, ICE, NMX, S&P
NYX : 1.0
NDAQ: .56, 1.0
CME : .64, .32, 1.0
ICE : .71, .27, .53, 1.0
NMX : .37, .75, .27, .25, 1.0
S&P : .25, .21, .72, .05, .22, 1.0
Here's the matrix for Dec 30, 2006-Nov 29, 2006:
NYX, NDAQ, CME, ICE, S&P
NYX : 1.0
NDAQ: .44, 1.0
CME : .25, .36, 1.0
ICE : .26, .31, .35, 1.0
S&P : .34, .53, .45, .34, 1.0
By taking the differences you can get an idea of where we are relative to peer movements based on correlations. Correlations change over time so this is subject to periodic review. But you can see where spikes in correlation (NMX-NDAQ, CME-S&P, and ICE-S&P) are typically temporary.
Long & strong
goofyfoot
18 years ago
Tera, I'm wondering where we go from here. On the Yahoo boards, for NYX, CME, BOT, etc., it's been said that today, for NMX, was just the market makers playing around. NMX seems linked to NYX, which was downgraded by JP Morgan today.
I think you're right, NMX is kind of trapped into following the other exchanges.
I guess a lot of people had that "irrational exuberance" that Greenspan is famous for saying, when they bought NMX. Myself included. It's easy to look back and say, damn, why did I do this? But, maybe I'm just thinking about this one in terms that are too short. I can't afford to sell, because I made that mistake in May. I lost a great deal in May, when the market took a dump. Sold in a panic (yeah, I know), and just when I had almost recouped my losses by making a dollar here and two dollars there, I buy NMX!
Thoughts? Ideas? Cheerleading?
teraflop
18 years ago
Nice finish today.
8K Filed today regarding approval of COMEX transaction:
Item 8.01. Other Events
On November 20, 2006, the members of Commodity Exchange, Inc. ("COMEX") a subsidiary of NYMEX Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") voted, at a COMEX special meeting, to approve the COMEX transaction, which among other things, will expand the ability of the Company to provide COMEX electronic trading privileges to third parties, as well as to list all COMEX contracts for side by side trading in exchange for 8,400 shares of Company common stock. More than 98% of the shares voted in connection with this meeting were voted in favor of the deal. On October 31, 2006, the Company's stockholders voted to approve the COMEX transaction.
Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits
(d) Exhibit
99.1. Press Release, dated November 20, 2006, issued by NYMEX Holdings, Inc.