mick
8 years ago
Natural gas flows to Cheniere's Sabine Pass export terminal hit record
Pipeline flows to Cheniere Energy's (NYSEMKT:LNG) Sabine Pass liquefied natural gas export terminal set a record 1.66M dekatherms a day on Dec. 29, surpassing the previous all-time high set in November, WSJ reports, citing SNL Energy.
Deliveries from both the Cheniere Creole Trail Pipeline and Natural Gas Pipeline Company of America have increased since the terminal closed and restarted operations three months ago, according to the report.
The Louisiana terminal began shipping LNG exports less than a year ago, boosting the U.S. natural gas export business and raising hopes that future export demand will help lift prices and increase global influence.
mick
8 years ago
This North Sea Nation Is About To Lose 90% Of Its Natural Gas Production
Oilprice.com
Dave Forest
Oilprice.comJanuary 3, 2017
Another tidbit of news on Iranโs emerging oil and gas bid round this week. With that countryโs oil ministry saying yesterday that 29 E&Ps from 12 countries have been pre-qualified to bid, including Shell, Total, Eni, Petronas, Gazprom and Lukoil.
One surprise in that list was the omission of BP. With that company reportedly deciding to pull out of the bidding over concerns about Iran sanctions.
And in BPโs backyard, the North Sea, there was another big petro-development this week. With one of the regionโs largest natural gas fields facing a sudden closure.
Thatโs the Tyra field, located in the sliver of the North Sea owned by Denmark. Which represents the largest source of natural gas for the Danish market โ in fact, almost the entirety of national supply.
Tyraโs owner and operator Maersk Oil said over the weekend that aging infrastructure at Tyra is becoming a critical issue. With management having been unable to come up with an economically-viable solution for modernizing the development.
Maersk is therefore planning to shutter this mega-field. With the company saying it has begun to notify relevant authorities of the decision to move toward decommissioning โ and that, starting next month, it will begin channeling financial resources toward the shutdown.
Related: 2017 โ The Year Of The Drone
This is a huge development for the Danish energy sector, given that Tyra provides a full 90% of national natgas production. And it could have some important implications for the European energy picture beyond Danish borders.
With Denmark being a relatively small gas consumer, the nation also sends pipeline exports to neighbors including Sweden and northern Germany. Sweden particularly has few other suppliers, while Germanyโs other import points are mainly in the south and west of the country.
That could mean a reorganization of gas flows โ and potentially some local shortages โ as Tyra winds down. Maersk said it plans to have the field fully shut by October of next year โ watch for subtle but important shifts in European gas flows over the coming 22 months.
Hereโs to retiring a giant.
By Dave Forest
mick
8 years ago
Gazprom, OMV agree on outline for swap of Norway, Siberia assets
Dec. 14, 2016 10:20 AM ET|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) and Austria's OMV (OTC:OMVJF) reach an outline deal to swap a 38.5% stake in OMV's Norwegian unit for a 25% in a section of Gazprom's Urengoy gas field.
The companies say they are optimistic about obtaining approval from Norwegian authorities for the deal, after Gazprom had said previously that Norway might block it from acquiring a stake larger than 25% in OMV's Norwegian holding.
The effective date of the deal will be Jan. 1, pending regulatory approval, with the final deal expected to be sealed in the middle of next year.
mick
8 years ago
#4/ Mr. Market Or Mother Nature, Who Rocks Oil First?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4025391-mr-market-mother-nature-rocks-oil-first
Nov. 22, 2016 5:16 AM ET|10 comments | About:
The United States Oil ETF, LP (USO),
OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO,
DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
==============================================================
Oklahoma earth quakes could cause supply shock.
However there is growing potential of a supply shock in the U.S. The Oklahoma oil hub is the most important in the U.S. and sets the West Texas Intermediate oil price. Ironically drilling for oil and fracking may bring on it's own demise.
Bloomberg reports that several producers, as well as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, are facing lawsuits because of seismic activity allegedly linked to oilfield wastewater disposal in Oklahoma and other states. The region, previously not known for intense seismic activity, began having a significant number of earthquakes in 2009, the same year area oil companies began using fracking to shatter deep rock layers to extract oil and gas.
In fact since 2011, the number and size of these quakes has grown immensely and it is just a matter of time before one does severe damage to the oil hubs, storage and pipelines. Note the number and dates of the 10 largest quakes in Oklahoma. Seven of the largest quakes have occurred since 2011.
Sept. 3, 2016 - 5.8
Nov. 5, 2011 - 5.7
Apr. 1952 - 5.5
Nov. 6, 2016 - 5.0
Oct. 1882 - 4.9
Nov. 9, 2011 - 4.8
Nov. 5, 2011 - 4.8
March 2014 - 4.5
Dec. 2013 - 4.5
1974 - 4.5
Perhaps Mother Nature will disrupt supply before the lack of drilling.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
mick
8 years ago
#3/ Mr. Market Or Mother Nature, Who Rocks Oil First?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4025391-mr-market-mother-nature-rocks-oil-first
Nov. 22, 2016 5:16 AM ET|10 comments | About:
The United States Oil ETF, LP (USO),
OIL, UWTI, UCO, DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO,
DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM, OILK, OILX
==============================================================
An article in the Globe and Mail this past February highlights the increased interest in floating storage by Oil Traders.
Yes a lot of floating storage is because of excess supply but a lot is also from Oil traders taking advantage of the high contango. This Oil is already sold in the market so is really not excess supply.
Therefore a considerable amount of storage is because of the price contango and not just over supply.
The EIA's phantom oil storage
Perhaps the strangest event is the big distortion or adjustments with the EIA's oil storage numbers. The market is focused on what you see on this chart, notably the increase from about 340 million barrels the end of 2014 to over 500 million
The EIA, determines changes to the amount of oil in storage with a pretty straight forward calculation.
Stock Change = Domestic Production + Net Imports - Crude Oil Input to Refineries
However the data never matches up accurately with the data from underground and tanker storage, the EIA assumes the problem comes from the less accurate production, import, or refinery data, and "adjusts" the numbers accordingly. In the past, this adjustment has been minimal around 10% to 15% so can be safely ignored.
But over the last several years, the differences have often represented as much as 60% and more of the total number and has really widened more so since 2014.
At least on paper, there's a lot of oil in U.S. storage - but as this chart shows in July more than 400 million barrels- that doesn't appear to come from either domestic production or from imports.
This is a lot of phantom oil derived from EIA adjustments. It would be hard to imagine that 400 million barrels are really not there in storage, but I bet the real storage may be closer to the 300 - 350 million barrel number than most believe.
Another point of interest is storage utilization. It was pretty steady around or just over 60% until the end of 2014, then it moved up to 70% or just over. This is roughly only a 10% increase in utilization and is considering the EIA's phantom storage. If we were so much awash in oil would not this be higher?
Summary
What if oil storage is far less than the markets believe?
And at the same time production feel significantly because of less drilling.
It would mean the market could come back to balance very quickly.
We know that Saudi Arabia has a policy to maintain a spare output capacity between 1.5 to 2 million barrels and is currently pumping oil at a rate near a 32 year high. There is not much increase left in Saudi output.
I pointed out in my Oct 24th Gold and Oil update how drilling rigs have plummeted around the world - outside the middle east and this will lead to lower production.
This has already begun and the production decline will pick up speed.
The latest EIA weekly report shows that U.S production is already down - 6.1% from a year ago.
China's oil output dropped 11.3% from the same time a year ago to 16.1 million tons, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The daily average was 3.8 MMBOPD, the lowest since May 2009, and down from 3.9 MMBOPD in September.
In Norway average production in September was: 1,375,000 barrels of oil, about 11% below the oil production in September last year.
Offshore Oil production now counts for 30% of total production and it is about to take a big hit. Infill drilling is used to arrest the natural decline in an offshore oil field.
This chart shows the decline in infill drilling due to previous drops in the price of oil. The data is from the Gulf of Mexico, Southeast Asia and Brazil. The decline in infill drilling in 2009 was the largestโฆ until now. The first half of 2015 saw the largest decline in offshore infill drilling in history.
Based on this trend, Rystad Energy estimates that global offshore oil production in mature field will decline next year by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or 10 percent, to 13.5 million bpd from 15 million bpd in 2015.
The UK North Sea may fare worse with the collapse of investment in new projects. Oil&Gas UK reports that this year the upstream industry is expected to approve less than £1 billion to spend on new projects, compared to a typical £8 billion per year in the last five years - sparking fears for the long term future of the industry.
If there is no demand shock to the market, the supply erosion from less drilling will bring the market back to balance in the next year and perhaps even amount to a supply deficit. Especially if storage levels are not what we are led to believe.