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3 days ago
Netflix Stock Volatile After Upbeat Earnings Report
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | July 19, 2024
• Netflix posted strong second-quarter results
• The streaming giant reported a large number of new customers
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is volatile this morning, after the streaming giant's upbeat second-quarter results and subscriber growth came alongside a disappointing fiscal third-quarter forecast. A flood of analysts raised their price targets on NFLX, including BMO to $770 from $713. At last check, the stock was flat at $643.39, after earlier jumping as high as $678.97.
Before its earlier surge, Netflix stock had been sliding since its early July, two-year peak near the $700 region, which is also home to its November 17, 2021 record high of $700.98, and a firm level of pressure to watch going forward. So far this year, the equity rose 31.4%.
A point in favor of bulls, NFLX's 14-day relative strength index of 26.4 sits in "oversold" territory, which typically indicates a short-term bounce.
Over in the options pits, 113,000 calls and 87,000 puts have been exchanged, which is six times the overall options volume typically seen at this point. Expiring later today, the July 700 call and 625 put are the most popular contracts, with new positions opening at both.
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4 days ago
Netflix Beats Q2 Earnings, Falls on Weak Guidance – Tech Stocks Waver
By: James Hyerczyk | July 18, 2024
Key Points:
• Netflix beat Q2 earnings expectations with EPS of $4.88 and revenue of $9.56 billion, but its stock fell due to a weaker Q3 revenue forecast.
• The company added 8.05 million new subscribers, bringing its total to 278 million, driven by its password-sharing crackdown and ad-supported tier growth.
• Despite strong Q2 results, Netflix's decision to stop reporting subscriber figures and average revenue per member next year has raised concerns about long-term growth sustainability.
Netflix Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations, but Stock Falls on Revenue Outlook
Netflix reported strong second-quarter earnings, beating analyst expectations on key metrics. However, the streaming giant’s stock fell in after-hours trading due to a softer revenue outlook for the third quarter.
At 20:39 GMT, Netflix, Inc. is trading $631.01, down $12.03 or -1.87%.
Earnings and Revenue Surpass Estimates
Netflix posted earnings per share of $4.88, surpassing the expected $4.74. Revenue reached $9.56 billion, a 16.8% increase year-over-year, slightly above the anticipated $9.53 billion. The company’s performance was driven by growth in average paid memberships and the success of its ad-supported tier.
Subscriber Growth Continues to Impress
The streaming leader added 8.05 million new subscribers in Q2, significantly exceeding expectations of 4.7 million. This brings Netflix’s total global paid memberships to 278 million, a 16.5% increase from the previous year. The company’s password-sharing crackdown and expansion of its ad-supported tier have contributed to this growth.
Ad-Supported Tier Gains Momentum
Netflix reported a 34% quarter-on-quarter increase in ad-supported memberships. The company aims to achieve critical ad subscriber scale in its ad countries by 2025, setting the stage for further growth in 2026 and beyond. To boost the ad tier, Netflix plans to phase out its basic plan membership in the US and France.
Daily Netflix, Inc
Revenue Forecast Misses Mark
Despite strong Q2 results, Netflix’s Q3 revenue forecast of $9.73 billion fell short of the $9.83 billion analysts expected. This outlook, coupled with the company’s decision to stop reporting subscriber figures and average revenue per member starting next year, has raised concerns about long-term growth sustainability.
Market Reaction and Future Outlook
Netflix shares dropped up to 6% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. However, the company raised its full-year 2024 revenue growth projection to 14-15%, up from the previous 13-15% range. Operating margins are expected to reach 26% for the full year, an increase from the earlier 25% forecast.
Market Forecast
The market’s reaction to Netflix’s earnings report suggests a bearish short-term outlook. While the company’s Q2 performance was strong, concerns about future revenue growth and the decision to withhold key metrics have created uncertainty. Traders should monitor Netflix’s ability to maintain subscriber growth and successfully monetize its ad-supported tier in the coming quarters. The stock may face downward pressure in the near term as the market digests these mixed signals.
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2 weeks ago
Here's Why Netflix (NFLX) is a Strong Momentum Stock
By: Zacks Investment Research | July 11, 2024
It doesn't matter your age or experience: taking full advantage of the stock market and investing with confidence are common goals for all investors. Luckily, Zacks Premium offers several different ways to do both.
The popular research service can help you become a smarter, more self-assured investor, giving you access to daily updates of the Zacks Rank and Zacks Industry Rank, the Zacks #1 Rank List, Equity Research reports, and Premium stock screens.
Zacks Premium includes access to the Zacks Style Scores as well.
What are the Zacks Style Scores?
The Zacks Style Scores, developed alongside the Zacks Rank, are complementary indicators that rate stocks based on three widely-followed investing methodologies; they also help investors pick stocks with the best chances of beating the market over the next 30 days.
Each stock is assigned a rating of A, B, C, D, or F based on their value, growth, and momentum characteristics. Just like in school, an A is better than a B, a B is better than a C, and so on -- that means the better the score, the better chance the stock will outperform.
The Style Scores are broken down into four categories:
Value Score
Value investors love finding good stocks at good prices, especially before the broader market catches on to a stock's true value. Utilizing ratios like P/E, PEG, Price/Sales, Price/Cash Flow, and many other multiples, the Value Style Score identifies the most attractive and most discounted stocks.
Growth Score
Growth investors, on the other hand, are more concerned with a company's financial strength and health, and its future outlook. The Growth Style Score examines things like projected and historic earnings, sales, and cash flow to find stocks that will experience sustainable growth over time.
Momentum Score
Momentum trading is all about taking advantage of upward or downward trends in a stock's price or earnings outlook, and these investors live by the saying "the trend is your friend." The Momentum Style Score can pinpoint good times to build a position in a stock, using factors like one-week price change and the monthly percentage change in earnings estimates.
VGM Score
If you want a combination of all three Style Scores, then the VGM Score will be your friend. It rates each stock on their combined weighted styles, helping you find the companies with the most attractive value, best growth forecast, and most promising momentum. It's also one of the best indicators to use with the Zacks Rank.
How Style Scores Work with the Zacks Rank
The Zacks Rank is a proprietary stock-rating model that harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions, or changes to a company's earnings expectations, to help investors build a successful portfolio.
#1 (Strong Buy) stocks have produced an unmatched +25.41% average annual return since 1988, which is more than double the S&P 500's performance over the same time frame. However, the Zacks Rank examines a ton of stocks, and there can be more than 200 companies with a Strong Buy rank, and another 600 with a #2 (Buy) rank, on any given day.
With more than 800 top-rated stocks to choose from, it can certainly feel overwhelming to pick the ones that are right for you and your investing journey.
That's where the Style Scores come in.
To maximize your returns, you want to buy stocks with the highest probability of success. This means picking stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 or #2 that also have Style Scores of A or B. If you find yourself looking at stocks with a #3 (Hold) rank, make sure they have Scores of A or B as well to ensure as much upside potential as possible.
The direction of a stock's earnings estimate revisions should always be a key factor when choosing which stocks to buy, since the Scores were created to work together with the Zacks Rank.
For instance, a stock with a #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell) rating, even one that boasts Scores of A and B, still has a downward-trending earnings forecast, and a much greater likelihood its share price will decline as well.
Thus, the more stocks you own with a #1 or #2 Rank and Scores of A or B, the better.
Stock to Watch: Netflix NFLX
Netflix is considered a pioneer in the streaming space. The company evolved from a small DVD-rental provider to a dominant streaming service provider, courtesy of its wide-ranging content portfolio and a fortified international footprint. At the end of the first quarter of 2024, the company had 269.6 million paid subscribers globally.
NFLX is a #3 (Hold) on the Zacks Rank, with a VGM Score of B.
Momentum investors should take note of this Consumer Discretionary stock. NFLX has a Momentum Style Score of B, and shares are up 4.2% over the past four weeks.
One analysts revised their earnings estimate higher in the last 60 days for fiscal 2024, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased $0.01 to $18.31 per share. NFLX also boasts an average earnings surprise of 9.3%.
With a solid Zacks Rank and top-tier Momentum and VGM Style Scores, NFLX should be on investors' short list.
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2 weeks ago
Netflix Stock Hit with Pre-Earnings Bull Note
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | July 9, 2024
• TD Cowen raised its price target to $775 from $725
• TD Cowen lifted its price target, keeping a "buy" rating
TD Cowen raised its price target on Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) to $775 from $725 today, ahead of the streaming giant's second-quarter report, due out after the close on July 18. The firm also reiterated its "buy" rating and increased its long-term subscriber estimates, pointing to continued growth expectations. At last glance, NFLX was up 0.4% at $688.66, near its recent July 5 two-year peak of $697.49.
The equity could see pressure from the $700 region, as last week's highs, as well as its November 17, 2021 record peak of $700.98, were cut short there. Since October, Netflix stock only notched one monthly loss -- in April. Year to date, the Big Tech name is up 41.5%.
NFLX has a history of outsized post-earnings moves, averaging a 9.5% move, regardless of direction, over the past two years. The options pits are pricing in a 10.7% next-day swing this time around, so prepare for potential volatility next week. Netflix stock has had five positive reactions following its last eight quarterly reports, including a 16.1% pop this past October.
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1 month ago
Bull of the Day: Netflix (NFLX)
By: Zacks Investment Research | June 14, 2024
Netflix (NFLX) is considered a pioneer in the streaming space, evolving from a small DVD rental provider to a dominant streaming service provider. The stock has enjoyed positive earnings estimate revisions across the board, landing the stock into the highly-coveted Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In addition to favorable earnings estimate revisions, the stock resides in the Zacks Broadcast Radio and Television industry, currently ranked in the top 26% of all Zacks industries. Let’s take a closer look at how the company currently stacks up.
Netflix
Netflix recently enjoyed a solid quarter, posting $2.1 billion in free cash flow and seeing its year-to-date operating margin moving higher to 28.1% (20.6% in FY23). The company also maintained its free cash flow outlook of $6 billion for FY24 and repurchased 3.6 million shares throughout the period.
Concerning headline figures, the company’s sales climbed 14% year-over-year, whereas EPS jumped 80% partly thanks to margin expansion. Shares faced pressure post-earnings initially but have since recovered, up 7% overall over the last three months.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
NFLX’s growth outlook continues to remain bright, with consensus expectations for its current fiscal year suggesting 52% EPS growth on 15% higher sales.
Peeking ahead to FY25, consensus expectations presently allude to a 20% pop in earnings on a 12% increase in sales. The stock sports a Style Score of ‘A’ for Growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
It’s critical to note that the company’s initiatives, such as its password-sharing crackdown and ad-supported tiers, have led to strong membership growth – NFLX's latest subscriber account totaled 269.6 million, reflecting a 16% jump year-over-year.
Bottom Line
Investors can implement a stellar strategy to find expected winners by taking advantage of the Zacks Rank – one of the most powerful market tools that provides a massive edge.
The top 5% of all stocks receive the highly coveted Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). These stocks should outperform the market more than any other rank.
Netflix (NFLX) would be an excellent stock for investors to consider, as displayed by its Zack Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
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2 months ago
Netflix Revenue, Earnings, and Subscriptions Top Estimates
By: Lucas Downey | May 28, 2024
• Streaming video leader Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), continues to set the pace despite increased competition from other companies.
Netflix had nearly 270 million subscribers at the end of the first quarter and has been able to generate more average revenue from its membership base thanks to its portfolio of in-demand content, which will soon include more live events.
The company’s reported quarterly earnings of $5.28 per share beat the Wall Street consensus estimate of $4.52. Its revenue and subscriber figures beat estimates too ($9.37 billion versus $9.28 billion and 269.6 million versus 264.2 million, respectively).
It’s no wonder NFLX shares are up 33% this year – and they could rise more. MAPsignals data shows how Big Money investors are betting heavily on the forward picture of the stock.
Netflix Shares Reflect Heavy Accumulation
Institutional volumes reveal plenty. In the last year, NFLX has enjoyed strong investor demand, which we believe to be institutional support.
Each green bar signals unusually large volumes in NFLX shares. They reflect our proprietary inflow signal, pushing the stock higher:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Plenty of technology names are under accumulation right now. But there’s a powerful fundamental story happening with Netflix.
Netflix Fundamental Analysis
Institutional support and a healthy fundamental backdrop make this company worth investigating. As you can see, NFLX has had strong sales and earnings growth:
• 3-year sales growth rate (+10.6%)
• 3-year EPS growth rate (+31%)
Source: FactSet
Also, EPS is estimated to ramp higher this year by +20.8%.
Now it makes sense why the stock has been powering to new heights. NFLX has a track record of strong financial performance.
Marrying great fundamentals with our proprietary software has found some big winning stocks over the long term.
Netflix has been a top-rated stock at MAPsignals. That means the stock has unusual buy pressure and growing fundamentals. We have a ranking process that showcases stocks like this on a weekly basis.
It’s made the rare Top 20 report multiple times in the last year. The blue bars below show when NFLX was a top pick…delivering value along the way:
Source: www.mapsignals.com
Tracking unusual volumes reveals the power of money flows.
This is a trait that most outlier stocks exhibit…the best of the best. Big Money demand drives stocks upward.
Netflix Price Prediction
The NFLX rally isn’t new at all. Big Money buying in the shares is signaling to take notice. Given the historical gains in share price and strong fundamentals, this stock could be worth a spot in a diversified portfolio.
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3 months ago
Bull of the Day: Netflix (NFLX)
By: Zacks Investment Research | May 6, 2024
Netflix (NFLX) is considered a pioneer in the streaming space, evolving from a small DVD rental provider to a dominant streaming service provider. The stock has enjoyed positive earnings estimate revisions across the board, landing the stock into the highly-coveted Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a closer look at how the streaming titan currently stacks up.
Netflix
Netflix shares faced selling pressure following its latest release but have since recovered, up 18% overall in 2024.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Concerning headline figures in its latest print, Netflix posted a 17% beat relative to the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate and posted sales modestly ahead of the consensus, with both items showing considerable growth from the year-ago periods.
Below is a chart illustrating the company’s revenue on a quarterly basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Total subscribers were reported at 269.6 million, reflecting a 16% jump year-over-year. Still, the real surprise in the quarterly release was that the company will no longer report quarterly membership numbers starting next year in 2025 Q1, likely explaining the knee-jerk reaction post-earnings.
Nonetheless, Netflix enjoyed a solid quarter, posting $2.1 billion in free cash flow and seeing its year-to-date operating margin moving higher to 28.1% (20.6% in FY23). The company also maintained its free cash flow outlook of $6 billion for FY24 and repurchased 3.6 million shares throughout the period.
The company’s growth outlook remains bright, with consensus expectations for its current fiscal year suggesting 52% earnings growth on 15% higher sales. The stock sports a Style Score of ‘A’ for Growth.
Bottom Line
Investors can implement a stellar strategy to find expected winners by taking advantage of the Zacks Rank – one of the most powerful market tools that provides a massive edge.
The top 5% of all stocks receive the highly coveted Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). These stocks should outperform the market more than any other rank.
Netflix (NFLX) would be an excellent stock for investors to consider, as displayed by its Zack Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
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3 months ago
Netflix Could Monetize 40M Borrowers By End Of 2024, Analysts See Over 25% Upside
By: Benzinga | April 25, 2024
Netflix NFLX continues to showcase robust performance in its first-quarter earnings report for 2024.
The streaming company is now on track to monetize about 40 million borrowers (i.e., people who do not live in the same household but share the same account).
In order to curb sharers/borrowers of an account outside a household, Netflix has restricted access to sharers beyond a household. The company also devised ways to make it easier for borrowers to transfer Netflix profiles into their own account.
The initiative ultimately means more paying accounts for Netflix.
With revenue surging to $9.37 billion, a 14.8% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share standing at $5.28, surpassing analyst estimates, Netflix demonstrates its resilience and ability to thrive in the ever-evolving media industry.
The company’s relentless pursuit of growth is evident in its addition of 9.33 million paid subscribers during the first quarter alone, bringing its total subscriber base to a staggering 269.60 million, marking a significant 16.0% increase from the previous year. Such impressive numbers underscore Netflix’s unparalleled position as a market leader in the streaming space.
Netflix stock is up 68.72% over the past year, 14.02% YTD.
Netflix Strategy Through The Lens Of JPMorgan
Moreover, insights from JPMorgan’s Video Streaming Survey shed light on Netflix’s strategy to further capitalize on its user base.
The survey reveals 44% of Netflix borrowers in the first quarter indicated their intention to either obtain their own subscription (38%) or become an additional member (6%). This data suggests that Netflix is effectively converting borrowers into paying customers, with projections estimating the potential monetization of approximately 40 million borrowers by the end of 2024.
Netflix’s initiatives to curb password sharing and introduce an ad-tier plan are notable developments aimed at enhancing monetization opportunities.
With 65% of Netflix users now restricted from sharing their accounts outside their households, and a growing awareness of the ad-tier option among subscribers, Netflix is diversifying its revenue streams and catering to varying consumer preferences.
Analysts See Over 25% Upside For Netflix Stock
In light of these developments, analysts remain bullish on Netflix’s future prospects.
Following the release of the Q1 earnings report, Evercore ISI Group, B of A Securities, and Oppenheimer issued their latest ratings, collectively assigning an average price target of $691.67 for Netflix stock. This projection implies a substantial 26.03% upside potential, reflecting analysts’ confidence in Netflix’s ability to capitalize on its expanding subscriber base and innovative monetization strategies.
As Netflix continues to invest in original content, expand its global footprint, and innovate its platform, the company remains poised for sustained growth and profitability.
With a compelling combination of subscriber growth, revenue diversification, and analyst optimism, Netflix stands at the forefront of the digital entertainment revolution, poised to deliver significant value to both investors and consumers alike.
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3 months ago
Bullish Trendline Could Help Netflix (NFLX) Stock Recover
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | April 24, 2024
• NFLX's 80-day moving average could push the stock back to its annual highs
• An unwinding of analysts' pessimism could also help the security bounce
The shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) are down 3.7% at $556.33 this afternoon, extending last week's post-earnings bear gap on the charts. The media streaming stock is on track for its fifth loss in six sessions, dragging it 8.3% lower this quarter. Still, NFLX boasts a 14.4% year-to-date lead and an even better 72.7% year-over-year gain, and this latest pullback has it near a historically bullish trendline that could soon catapult it higher.
More specifically, Netflix stock just came within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average, after trading above this trendline since November. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, six similar signals occurred during the past three years. One month after 67% of said signals, NFLX enjoyed a 10.3% gain. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the stock above the $613 mark -- back above its year-to-date highs.
Netflix stock is also outperforming the broader-market SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on a year-to-date basis, with the latter up just 6.2% in 2024. Some analysts are still pessimistic on the security despite this longer-term outperformance, with 17 of 40 covering brokerages rating it a "hold" or worse.
Now looks like an good time to take advantage of NFLX's next move with options. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 29% sits in the low 12th percentile of its annual range. This means the stock is currently sporting attractively priced premiums.
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3 months ago
Netflix Gets Island Reversal On Earnings
By: Carl Swenlin | April 19, 2024
Netflix (NFLX) earnings were released today, and the news was good. . . except for one little thing. They also suspiciously announced that, starting next year, they would no longer be reporting subscriber metrics. That's like General Motors saying that they will no longer report how many cars and trucks they made. I admit that some other aspect of the report could be a contributing factor for the crash, but let's look at the technicals.
After the gap up in January, price formed a three-month island that drifted higher, but all was not well technically. The falling PMO formed a negative divergence against the rising price. When the PMO falls above the zero line, it is telling us that the strength behind the up move is diminishing.
Also, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) went flat to slightly falling. OBV usually tracks price, and when it doesn't, it should attract our attention. In this case, it is suggesting that NFLX is not attracting sufficient volume to justify the rise in price.
Conclusion: Gaps don't always result in island reversals. For example, there was a gap up in October, following which a very similar island was formed. However, in January price gapped up from that island instead of reversing. In the case of the latest island, OBV sent up the warning flag.
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3 months ago
Netflix Stock Gaps Lower as Revenue Growth Weighs
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | April 19, 2024
• Netflix is no longer going to report one of its most important metrics
• NFLX is heading for its worst week since September despite the first-quarter earnings beat
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock is 8.2% lower to trade at $560.74 today, following a mixed first-quarter report. While the streaming giant beat quarterly earnings and revenue expectations, it issued a weaker-than-expected full-year revenue growth forecast and will no longer report quarterly subscriber gains -- arguably investors' favorite metric to track. Instead, Netflix will focus on revenue, operating margin, and engagement to assess its quarterly performance.
Netflix stock is on track for its lowest close since Feb. 13. The shares are barreling toward their worst week since September, and have finished in the red in five of the last six sessions. Year-to-date, NFLX still sports a 17.4% year-to-date lead, and is testing its 100-day moving average today.
The brokerage bunch piled the bull notes on, despite the negative price action. Needham upgraded NFLX to "buy" from "hold," while Pivotal Research raised its price objective all the way to $800 -- a 42.7% premium to the security's current perch.
Options traders also have something to say. Already, 52,000 calls and 53,000 puts have crossed the tape, with total options volume running at 12 times the intraday average. Most popular is the April 550 put, while new positions are being bought to open, while the the 560-strike put from the same monthly series is also popular.
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3 months ago
Netflix Surges as Rivals Stumble
By: 24/7 Wall St. | April 12, 2024
Over the past year, Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares have increased by 86% while rivals have lost billions of dollars. The S&P 500 is 36% higher over the same period. The game may already be over in a race that includes at least half a dozen large players.
In its most recently reported quarter, Netflix revenue rose 12% to $8.8 billion. The company forecasts that the growth will be 13% in the current quarter to $9.2 billion. While operating margins slipped to 17% last quarter, they are expected to jump to 26% in this one. Part of the reason for the growth was its ad-supported service. (Check out Netflix Stock Price Prediction in 2030: Bull, Base and Bear Forecasts.)
Netflix said it had 260 million subscribers worldwide in the most recently reported quarter, up from 233 million in the same quarter the year before and 247 million in the immediately previous quarter.
Except for Amazon Prime Video, which is often bundled with the Prime service and includes special deals and free delivery, Netflix competitors have lost billions of dollars. Disney+ has yet to make money since it was launched in 2019. Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max service lost $400 million in the most recently reported quarter.
Several other services will never catch up to Netflix in terms of total subscribers. Paramount+ has 63 million, Hulu has 49 million, Peacock has 28 million, and Apple TV+ has 25 million.
Among the most important parts of Netflix’s success is that Americans typically only subscribe to a few streaming services. Forbes puts the figure at 2.8. Rivals have to try to catch Netflix in an already overcrowded industry.
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