chico237
2 days ago
MEGA POST - DEC. 10th, 2024 ~China’s Critical Minerals Embargo Is Even Tougher Than Expected
Beijing ordered companies around the world not to allow critical minerals mined in China to reach the U.S., while deepening its efforts to replace imports with domestic products.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/business/china-critical-minerals.html
Alarm is rising among multinational companies doing business with China about Beijing’s decision last week to order a trade embargo on the export of four critical minerals to the United States. The central subject of concern is a provision extending the ban to companies in other countries that transfer minerals to American firms after acquiring them from China.
The order is the first time China has included a broad ban on so-called transshipment in a government regulation on exports. It also underlines Beijing’s readiness to escalate its tit-for-tat response to the tougher trade policies promised by President-elect Donald J. Trump.
DEC. 9th 2024~ China may use rare earth to retaliate against US, say analysts
[img][https://preview.redd.it/critical-minerals-embargo-is-even-tougher-than-expected-v0-g21ms00e706e1.png?width=1023&format=png&auto=webp&s=d282fbec96adb94753e57d76c155356f3c790a63/img]
https://www.voanews.com/a/china-may-use-rare-earth-to-retaliate-against-us-say-analysts/7892877.html
China has long condemned attempts by other countries, particularly the United States, to impose similar limits on transshipment by companies outside their borders.
The ban by Beijing threatens to divide global supply chains further, by forcing companies to choose whether products with certain materials and components can be supplied only to the American market or only to the Chinese market.
China has been trying to persuade companies elsewhere, particularly in Europe, that they should invest and build supply chains in China, not the United States.
“The move marks a significant escalation of the ongoing tech war between the U.S. and China, and E.U. businesses are increasingly worried about being caught in the crossfire,” said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.
The mineral embargo is the latest piece of an extensive initiative by China over the past nearly two decades to replace imports with domestic production.
On Dec. 3, the same day the Ministry of Commerce published the minerals ban, four government-linked trade associations directed companies to avoid buying American computer chips. Two days later, the Ministry of Finance unveiled a draft plan to overhaul the bidding on government contracts, heavily favoring companies that produce in China.
Joerg Wuttke, a former president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said the closest China had previously come to a prohibition of indirect shipments was last May. But that applied to only one company, an American importer of custom molded plastic parts from China.
In yet another indication that the Chinese government is ready to take a tough stance in response to U.S. policy, it said on Monday that it had started an antimonopoly investigation into Nvidia, the American giant that dominates the world’s market for the most advanced chips needed for artificial intelligence.
The volley of measures could also signal Beijing’s willingness to make a deal with the United States.
The spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry, He Jiandao, defended the new regulations on minerals exports as “a reasonable measure” and said China was “willing to strengthen dialogue with all parties in the field of export controls and jointly maintain the stability and smooth flow of global production and supply chains.”
The Biden administration has imposed a series of increasingly broad restrictions on the export to China of “dual-use” products, which are those with civilian and military applications. These restrictions have included transshipment bans.
On Dec. 2, Washington added more than 100 Chinese companies to a restricted trade list and banned the sale to China of some of the fastest semiconductors and the equipment to make them. The administration portrayed the action as a technical adjustment to address problems like the creation of shell companies to bypass previously imposed sanctions against existing enterprises.
China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed the minerals embargo on Tuesday in response to the latest of these restrictions. “Any organization or individual from any country or region that violates the above provisions and transfers or provides relevant dual-use items originating in the People’s Republic of China to organizations or individuals in the United States will be held accountable according to law,” said the ministry’s order, using China’s official name.
Export embargoes on critical minerals have a long history in international relations.
When China halted the export of “rare earth” metals to Japan in 2010 during a territorial dispute, the Commerce Ministry gathered senior managers from rare earth exporters and ordered them not to ship directly to Japan and also not to increase shipments to other countries that might then reship the metals to Japan. But the ministry never published any regulation that imposed the embargo or that banned transshipment.
In 1973, Arab countries imposed a six-month embargo on oil shipments to the United States in response to American support for Israel during a Mideast war that year, contributing to a quadrupling of gasoline prices. And in August 1941, the United States, in response to Japan’s aggression on China, placed an embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan, four months before Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor.
China’s decision to impose its first broad transshipment ban could prove more important than the actual critical minerals embargo. When the Commerce Ministry issued the embargo last week, it chose minerals, such as gallium and germanium, that were used in only a few narrow categories of semiconductors. Some companies already have stockpiles in anticipation of a Chinese ban.
Still, China dominates the global mining and refining of those minerals, as well as of graphite and antimony, the other two minerals embargoed last week.
In addition to the four minerals, the export embargo also includes “superhard materials,” a category of chemical compounds for which China is a leading producer, often using minerals mined mainly within its borders.
Like the critical minerals, superhard materials have applications in the manufacture of semiconductors. Some of them, notably compounds that include tungsten, are also used in munitions.
China has been pouring money into the development of a domestic semiconductor industry. The country is now a leading manufacturer of the semiconductors used in cars and other high-volume applications. But Chinese companies are still struggling to make the fastest semiconductors, and the Biden administration has restricted the export to China of the fastest 5 percent or so of the world’s semiconductors, which are used in military applications as well as in artificial intelligence.
China’s critical minerals embargo is “a direct threat to Japanese and European interests to push them away from the U.S. — with the hope and expectation the Trump team will further that objective,” said Susan C. Schwab, who was the United States trade representative during President George W. Bush’s second term. “Still, I’m not certain this is the wisest move for a government seeking to reassure potential foreign investors.”
Berry Wang and Li You contributed research.
DEC. 10th, 2024 ~ Trump 2.0: critical minerals, China and the IRA
https://www.mining-technology.com/features/trump-2-0-critical-minerals-china-and-the-ira/
Critical minerals supply chain diversification has bipartisan support in Washington. However, with the Trump administration set to prioritise security over climate, we can expect to see changes on China and to 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
NEW DELHI —
China is seizing control of critical minerals including rare earth that go into the making of electric vehicles (EVs), its batteries and a range of electronic products for civilian and military uses, according to analysts. Chinese companies in recent months have stepped up efforts to procure the minerals from diverse places like Myanmar, Vietnam, Morocco and Congo, according to several reports.
China’s quest for a larger share of critical minerals is significant because it is expected to use them as retaliatory tools against the U.S. if Washington decides to dramatically increase tariffs on Chinese goods, as President-elect Donald Trump has said he would do, according to analysts who spoke to VOA.
“Rare earths are a powerful tool China will use to retaliate against the Trump administration if the tariff war escalates,” Zhiqun Zhu, political scientist at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, told VOA in an emailed interview.
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce recently announced tighter control over exporting several rare earth minerals to the U.S.
In early December, China banned exports to the United States of the critical minerals gallium, germanium and antimony, which have widespread military applications, expanding curbs Beijing began rolling out in 2023.
“This is just the first step and a warning to the incoming administration in Washington. However, the doors are still open for negotiation to avoid a heightened tariff war,” Zhu said.
Beatrix Keim, director of Germany-based Center Automotive Research, said, “China controls the vast majority of refining capacity for rare earth and lithium, which is used for making batteries. China needs these minerals to feed its expanding new energy vehicle (NEV) sector.”
“At the same time, China is investing in relationships with several countries that supply these resources,” she added.
China has 36% of the world’s rare earth reserves but controls 70% of the global supply from mines in different countries, according to Now-Gmbh, a government-run research organization in Germany. China also controls 77% of the refining capacity for rare earth, it said.
“Some of the other sources of rare earth [minerals] like Vietnam, Russia and Brazil could be considered allies of China,” Lourdes Casanova, director of Cornell University’s Emerging Markets Institute, told VOA in an email.
The U.S. has significant rare earth resources at 1.8 million tons, according to U.S. Geological Survey estimates, besides being able to source from India and Australia, which have considerably higher resources.
Chinese companies also control most of the mines producing cobalt, a crucial component of electric vehicle batteries and other electronics, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the London-based minerals research and pricing firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Congo accounts for 70% of the global supply of cobalt, according to International Shareholder Services (ISS) based in the U.S. state of Maryland.
Myanmar tussle
China is taking advantage of the clashes between the military junta and rebel groups in Myanmar to extend its influence in the rare earth mining areas of the country. Myanmar produces several types of rare earth minerals, including heavy rare earth elements, which are critical in so-called “clean energy” technologies.
The rebel group Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has taken control of the Myanmar town of Kanpaikti, on the country's border with China. Kanpaikti has rich sources of rare earth minerals. This means that China could potentially be the sole buyer, purchasing the minerals from rebel groups instead of the ruling military junta, Sreeparna Banerjee, an associate fellow at New Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation, told VOA. Chinese officials have been engaged in negotiations with rebel groups for a long time, she said.
“China stands to maintain its supply dominance by negotiating directly with the new power holders ... the Kachin Independence Army (KIA),” said Banerjee. “This could potentially provide China with more favorable terms, as the KIA may prioritize securing revenue from a reliable buyer.”
On the other hand, the ongoing conflict between the rebels and the military junta has resulted in disruption of supplies and a sharp rise in the prices of some rare earth materials, like dysprosium and terbium, Banerjee said.
Bucknell’s Zhu said, “It is not surprising that China has reached out to the rebels regarding continued mining and China's undisrupted purchase of rare earths from Myanmar.”
Xi’s Morocco visit
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Morocco last month amid increasing investments by Chinese companies for manufacturing batteries used in electric vehicles. China’s Gotion High-Tech has committed $1.3 billion to build Africa’s first EV battery “gigafactory” near Rabat, while two other Chinese companies are making battery components.
“I think China is planning to manufacture cars in Morocco that could be sold in Europe, which is a short distance away,” said Keim, of Center Automotive Research. “That way, Chinese companies can evade high tariff rates in European countries.”
In October, the European Union imposed heavy tariffs ranging from 17% to 35.3% for various types of China-made EVs. The EU justified the decision saying China subsidized its EV makers, allowing them to sell at extremely low prices in Europe. China has challenged the decision at the World Trade Organization, resulting in heightened trade tensions between Beijing and the EU.
[color=red]“European EV makers are unable to compete with Chinese firms,” said Casanova, of Cornell University. “The EU wants to protect its own companies, like the German Volkswagen, Mercedes, BMW, the French Renault or the Italian Stellantis [formerly Fiat].”
[[/color]/b]
****INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH- STELLANTIS & NIOCORP ARE WORKING ON A DEAL.
SINCE July 6, 2023 ~ Stellantis and NioCorp Sign Rare Earth Offtake Term Sheet in Support of Stellantis’ Commitment to Reaching Carbon Net Zero by 2038
https://www.stellantis.com/en/news/press-releases/2023/july/stellantis-and-niocorp-sign-rare-earth-offtake-term-sheet-in-support-of-stellantis-commitment-to-reaching-carbon-net-zero-by-2038
Term Sheet Also Envisions a Possible Strategic Investment by Stellantis in NioCorp’s Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project
AMSTERDAM and CENTENNIAL, Colorado - Stellantis N.V. (“Stellantis”) and NioCorp Developments Ltd. (“NioCorp” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq:NB) (TSX:NB) today announced the signing of a Rare Earth Offtake Term Sheet (“Term Sheet”). The objective is to enter into a definitive rare earth supply agreement to support Stellantis’ commitment to build resilient supply chains and reach carbon net zero by 2038 and to help accelerate NioCorp’s path to commercial production of magnetic rare earth oxides in the U.S.
The Term Sheet executed today envisions a definitive agreement for a 10-year offtake contract for specific amounts of neodymium-praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide that NioCorp aims to produce at its Elk Creek Critical Minerals Project (the “Elk Creek Project”) in southeast Nebraska, subject to the receipt of adequate project financing. Final volumes would be set in a definitive agreement.
****3) Can/Will you offer an update on the Stellantis Off-take process? As material news becomes available? (Sept. 2024 response to question below)
RESPONSE:
*** "Not until we have a material agreement to announce."***
GIVEN: STELLANTIS'S INTEREST AS WELL AS THE U.S. GOVT & OTHER PRIVATE ENTITIES....
*****ALSO NOTE THE SYNERGIES BETWEEN NIOCORP/STELLANTIS & NEO PERFORMANCE (Rumored to want a magnet production facility in the U.S. see link below!)
https://www.reddit.com/r/NIOCORP_MINE/comments/185tvma/niocorp_stellantis_neo_performance_materials/
*From a PowerPoint Presentation (neomaterials.com) SINCE REMOVED!!!***
WHERE- "Neo has also dropped some heavy hints that they'll soon be announcing a similar factory in the US, likely accompanied by government subsidies similar to the EU one. Examples of such hints include their investor presentation (see slide 37) or even more explicitly their recent Q3 earnings call with the CEO Rahim Suleman stating: "I also think that we will announce North America within a reasonable short order as well." One can then start doubling the EU EBITDA numbers and add even more on top to account for future expected growth in the EV market. "
Summary of DPAP Awards Funded via Inflation Reduction Act for Critical Mineral Production
November 07, 2024
https://www.acq.osd.mil/news/office-news/asda/2024/Summary-of-DPAP-Awards-Funded-via-Inflation-Reduction-Act.html
Since mid-2023, the Department of Defense has awarded a total of $250 million to twelve recipients utilizing funds appropriated by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (Public Law 117-169). The twelve awards, made via the Defense Production Act Purchases (DPAP) office within the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy (OASD(IBP)), directly support the objectives of the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) by establishing domestic manufacturing capability for a reliable and sustainable supply of strategic and critical materials for large-capacity batteries and other supply chains key to national defense.
“These strategic investments will result in accelerated access to critical materials by incentivizing the establishment, expansion, and modernization of essential items required for defense and commercial systems and the associated workforce development efforts,” said Dr. Laura Taylor-Kale, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy (ASD(IBP)). “Many of these commodities have essential applications in microelectronics, aerospace, and other defense-related sectors as well.”
“Over the last few decades, the U.S. has seen the sourcing of a large number of critical materials shift overseas,” added Mr. Anthony Di Stasio, Director of the Manufacturing Capability Expansion and Investment Prioritization directorate (MCEIP) under the OASD(IBP). “Variable demand, price competition, and multiple other economic forces have resulted in the need to source many critical materials from foreign, often adversarial, nations. These awards reduce our reliance on foreign sources and mitigate severe defense industrial base risks.” (^^^NOTE: IF YOU DO SOME D.D. you will find More Funds are available!)
****NOTE -DOD FUNDING FEASIBILITY STUDIES FOR SEVERAL CRITICAL MINERALS PROJECTS LIKE GRAPHITE 1 & PERPETUA. WHICH BOTH ARE ALSO ENGAGED THE EXIM LOAN PROCESS. & NIOCORP IS SEEKING GOVT. FUNDING!!!
5) Could Niocorp offer an update on the status/progress/financing of the "early as possible" 2024 F.S. moving forward. (Sept. 2024 response to question Below)
***** "As soon as financing is obtained, we will be able to proceed on a faster path to completing the work remaining for a Feasibility Study update. Government funding is likely to help us in this effort, and we will announce that when the details are finalized."****
ON SEPT. 18th 2024 ~ NioCorp Looks to Potentially Recycle Post-Consumer Rare Earth Magnets and Produce Made-in-USA Heavy Rare Earths in Nebraska
https://www.niocorp.com/niocorp-looks-to-potentially-recycle-post-consumer-rare-earth-magnets-and-produce-made-in-usa-heavy-rare-earths-in-nebraska/
*NioCorp to Present on its Production and Recycling Plans at the 20***th Annual Rare Earth Conference in Washington, D.C. on October 15, 2024
4) What does Niocorp foresee as any final obstacles to achieve a final Project Finance commitment moving forward as the final quarter of 2024 approaches?4) What does Niocorp foresee as any final obstacles to achieve a final Project Finance commitment moving forward as the final quarter of 2024 approaches? (Sept. 2024 response to question Below)
RESPONSE:
**** "We remain very optimistic that we will be able to secure the project financing required to get this project into construction and commercial operation, although there can be no guarantees of success in this effort."****
GIVEN: EXIM BANK & POSSIBLE DOE TITLE 17, The 45X TAX INCENTIVES , CIRCULAR CRITICAL MINERALS MARKETPLACE IN PROGRESS ALONG WITH DOD STOCKPILE POSSIBILITIES!!!!
OCT. 24th 2024 ~Treasury slashes taxes to boost critical minerals
https://www.eenews.net/articles/treasury-slashes-taxes-to-boost-critical-minerals/
The Treasury Department’s final rules for the Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit, also known as 45X, now includes a 10 percent tax cut for mineral production, following a steady drumbeat of calls to tweak and expand the credit to boost domestic mining.*
The rules also cut taxes for producers of solar and wind components, batteries and certain critical mineral projects.
THEY ARE NOW LAW & HAVE PASSED!
FOR CONTEXT SEE: Repost of Jims/Niocorp response on the 45X tax Credit as follows from April 5th 2024
"There are two separate tax credits referenced here: 45X and 45C.
Regarding 45C, that program required applicants to seek a credit for projects that could be constructed and put into operation within 24 months. Thus, we were not eligible for the tax credit for the Elk Creek Project.
Regarding 45X, this was designed by Congress to provide minerals producers and processors with a 10% production tax credit for domestically produced critical minerals. Unfortunately, the Biden Administration has proposed to disallow application of the credit to the cost of extracting or acquiring critical minerals, and to allow its application only to the “processing” of critical minerals. This would essentially defeat the purpose of Congress’ intent with this provision and would, perversely, encourage companies to mine critical minerals overseas, instead of the U.S. This philosophy is also reflected, in general, in the Administration’s push to send taxpayer dollars to support overseas mining projects. Fortunately, the Export-Import Bank of the U.S. is charting its own path in terms of seeking to finance domestic critical minerals mining and processing projects.
NioCorp joined with many hundreds of other companies and associations to push back on this policy and to encourage the Administration to stick to Congressional intent and allow this 10% tax credit to apply to both the mining and processing of critical minerals in the U.S. See this: https://www.niocorp.com/niocorp-joins-with-major-automotive-manufacturers-to-urge-action-by-biden-administration-on-mining-tax-incentive/
A 10% production tax credit covering the costs of both mining and processing our critical minerals in Nebraska would deliver substantial financial benefits to the Project, once the Company begins paying federal taxes.
Jim"
OCT. 24th, 2024 ~US is working with allies on mineral marketplace amid energy transition
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/sullivan-us-is-working-with-allies-on-mineral-marketplace-amid-energy-transition/ar-AA1sNPg9?ocid=BingNewsSerp
The marketplace will likely seek to pull some capacity on mineral processing and refinement away from China, which has traditionally been dominant in the field and has adapted much of its overall production strategy to alternative energy technologies.
Details on market structure have yet to emerge, but the initiative could also have an effect on supply and value chains, which have come under scrutiny in the aftermath of the pandemic as officials discussed “near-shoring” and “friend-shoring” as an alternative to more established trade routes between the U.S. and Asia.
“We are working with [our partners] to create a high standard, critical mineral marketplace, one that diversifies our supply chains, creates a level playing field for our producers, and promotes strong workers rights and environmental protections,” Sullivan said during an event at the Brookings Institution.
He added that movement on the marketplace initiative could take place in a matter of weeks.
“We’re driving towards tangible progress on that idea in just the next few weeks,” Sullivan said.
(***SOME ENTITIES HAVE GOT TO BE VERY INTERESTED IN MAGNETS! FROM MINING TO PROCESSING TO RECYLCLING. NIOCORP IS DEVELOPING & BECOMING A PART OF A CRITICAL MINERAL CIRCULAR ECONMY FOR THE U.S.)
(NEWS ON THIS MIGHT POST IN DEC. - JAN. Prior to next administration.... T.B.D.)
MARK SMITH RESPONDED TO QUESTIONS BELOW ON NOV. 14th & 15th 2024:
https://www.weare121.com/121mininginvestment-london/niocorp-development/
FORM YOUR OWN OPINIONS & CONCLUSIONS ABOVE:
~ (FINAL 2024 RECAP) COMING SOON BEFORE XMAS 2024~ .........WAITING TO SEE HOW THE YEAR ENDS!....
~KNOWING WHAT NIOBIUM, TITANIUM, SCANDIUM & RARE EARTH MINERALS CAN DO FOR BATTERIES, MAGNETS, LIGHT-WEIGHTING, AEROSPACE, MILITARY, OEMS, ELECTRONICS & SO MUCH MORE....~
~KNOWING THE NEED TO ESTABLISH A U.S. DOMESTIC, SECURE, TRACEABLE, ESG DRIVEN, CARBON FRIENDLY, GENERATIONAL CRITICAL MINERALS MINING; & A CIRCULAR-ECONOMY & MARKETPLACE FOR ALL~
"DOTS" Above are Darn Interesting!!! IMHO....
ALL Bodes well for Niocorp~ IMHO - "IF/SHOULD" they achieve a Debt/Equity Finance to build the Elk Creek Mine Project. It would allow a DIVERSE, Secure, Traceable Domestically produced supply of NIOBIUM, TITANIUM, SCANDIUM & RARE EARTH MAGNETIC MATERIALS for both the U.S. Govt. (Stockpile) & Private Industries. THE TABLE IS SET TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQN2B0mFAaw&t=2s
Haven't posted in a bit.. I'm still ere too...
WAITING WITH MANY TO ENGAGE! INTO 2025.... & BEYOND....!
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