Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc (IOVA) Quote

$1.70 says it all….beaten down from $18 to $1.70 in one year after Amtagvi approval. Analyze it please.
Two major dilutions ($400 M+) to raise cash, lies about revenue projection, high cost basis, tough logistics, shrinking demand, etc etc
They are running out of cash. CFO resigned. Will it go to bankruptcy soon to help a few who have shorted big time and facilitate a cheap transfer to the vultures?
Only.a miracle will lift it from $1.70 to $18 again. Q2 will reveal its trajectory and seal its fate. Let’s pray for a miracle here.

Great read. Now I hope this moves back up and draws attention.
I know there are major money issues, but maybe a buyout from a big bucks company?

Here's a bonus read: https://www.royalmarsden.nhs.uk/news-and-events/news/one-time-cell-therapy-offers-long-term-survival-hope-patients-advanced

I am guessing we have to wait on guidance.

Jondouk, are you actually in the U.K.?

Let me share a bit of good news from England: I've received confirmation from the NHS that they are preparing for the launch of Lifileucel (Amtagvi) in England, but they are still waiting on a final recommendation from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). My best guess is that Iovance may begin recognizing revenues from the launch of Lifileucel in England as early as Q4 of this year. Proleukin stocking revenues may occur earlier.

I have not yet received similar confirmations from Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales as they each authorize independently from England.

Not necessarily a surprise, but it's good to see that the procurement process has begun in England.

Hopefully we'll hear something from Iovance regarding other countries and the timing of their launches.

Good luck to IOVA longs.

Total novice here, but I'm curious if you or SB can answer this question: will it eventually be possible to fully select which T-cells are expanded to ensure that the ones grown are the best ones to fight the specific cancer that the patient has? And if so, can this speed up the process even more if they can truly achieve that level of selectivity? My point, no sense expanding the T-cells that don't have an affect on the patient's cancer.

I'm sure my word choices are inaccurate at best, but I think I'm making my point in these questions.

TIA

My depth of knowledge is limited to some of the available articles such as the following: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-023-01471-y

From IOVA's poster: ''Recently, a memory-progenitor stem-like (CD39-CD69-) phenotype was associated with complete regression and TIL persistence in a cohort of patients with metastatic melanoma2'' https://www.iovance.com/uploads/Iovance_ESMO-IO-2021_AKTi-TIL-Expansion.pdf

I agree with what Badgerkid (and Structural_Biologist) said. Preclinical data from the US NCI https://aacrjournals.org/cancerres/article/75/2/296/606443/Akt-Inhibition-Enhances-Expansion-of-Potent-Tumor

Not directly but this patent is related to streamlining the TIL treatment from ~45 days to ~22 days. This is a good step 1. I would like to see another patent related to CD40L and subsequently working to implement that into their workflow to further reduce the manufacturing time.

A strong patent portfolio will be a benefit to Iovance in controlling the TIL therapy space, but it's their revenues that will drive the share price. The company has to overcome the loss of trust due to their multiple reiterations of the guidance when they should have been updating and adjusting the guidance to reflect the slower than originally predicted start.

I believe the company will be just fine over the next 2-3 quarters with each quarter helping to support and ultimately improving the stock's price. But it's all about the revenues at this point as it should be. I think Kirby will prove that he was a very good choice for CCO.

GL

New patent. Will it move this? Anyone?

Market at all time high and IOVA at all time low since it’s high of $18 a year ago. What a tragedy! This points to a dishonest (or incompetent or both) leadership and BOD. They have all enabled it to get crushed despite an innovative, first of its kind FDA approved product for end stage melanoma.
Will it ever recover to $5 and up?
Based on the confidence shorts are showing, no. However, if Q2 earnings exceed expectations and the conference call is all about honesty (apology offered for incompetence and/or dishonesty) along with announcement of a plan to breakeven by end of 2026 without raising cash at shareholders expense, we may see a recovery. Achievement of milestones with clinical trials and EU approvals will add speed to recovery.

IOvA may be at $1 or lower before l its full approval. Only thing that matters here is IOVAs ability to cut costs drastically, increase revenue to exceed lowered target and NOT dilute shares at the lows. . This is asking a lot. Q2 will provide a nice glimpse. This stock has been played to the ground. Trust score is close to zero.

Cutting approval time by months can only be good for IOVA.
Let's see if the market agrees.

Potentially very good news for Iovance and for nsclc and endo approvals:

https://stocktwits.com/bavariaron/message/618601149

They analysts are a laughing stock. They are so behind the curve. If you bought based on their recommendation, you are screwed now. It’s at $2 for many good reasons. Repeated dilutions to ten time of $400M, lies about annual estimates, demand is low, burn rate is through the roof and additional dilutions are now a strong possibility. If they cannot ramp up sales and beat revised estimates hands down in Q2 and Q3, it’s game
over. $1 is more likely.

Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Iovance Biotherapeutics in the last 3 months. The average price target is $10.00 with a high forecast of $25.00 and a low forecast of $2.00. The average price target represents a 405.05% change from the last price of $1.98.

7 buy 5 hold 0 sell

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/iova/forecast

A year ago, post approval for Amtagvi, share price shot up from $9 to $18. Today it is struggling at $2 mostly due to missed revenue, dilution of shares and loss of trust with current management team. CFO leaving at this juncture is proof positive of chaos. Only hope and prayer is the COO delivers on beating revised forecasts for the next several quarters while burn rate is controlled in a manner to reach breakeven by 2026. This coupled with good news from ongoing studies has the potential to bring the stock back to $9 (market cap $3B) by end of this year or early 2026. However, if they miss revised targets, it’s game over. This is my position and I’m sticking to it. Good luck to all of us. We need it to get out of this dire state.

From this point forward, what really matters is improving revenues each and every Q for the next several quarters. Despite what's happened in year one, the new CCO Mr. Kirby and his team have to be fully committed to improving the message of the need to have patients start TIL therapy far earlier in their disease progression. The KOL panel said that very same thing in the fireside chat the other day. There's plenty of catalysts for year two, but increasing revenues has to be at the top of the list by far.

Some have speculated that the CFO is leaving (or was asked to leave) due to the botched guidance (or the failure in messaging when it became obvious that guidance wasn't going to be met). It's important to remember that the CFO is only one piece in approving guidance before it goes out to the public. Likely the CEO and some BOD members were also part of that decision. If the CFO is being sacrificed, will there be others?

It's also possible that he's simply moving on as many execs do when they've been in a job for a certain number of years. If they wish to remain relevant, they make those customary job changes multiple times in their careers. Then again, he may simply be going to a job where they understand what he's saying, I always struggled with Jean-Marc's heavy accent on those conference calls.

In the meantime, IOVA is still a victim of the sector and the overall market until such time that they impress with increasing revenues. Q2 is looking like it'll suffice, but I suspect Q3 will finally show those improvements expected with the new CCO at the helm.

Many still want additional new leadership and I can't say that I blame them. Bottom line is the bottom line - revenues need to be increasing. Trusting this company's messaging again will take time.

GL to IOVA longs.

I am not sure it is a big loss given how they totally missed their FY25 guidance, it might help to restore some confidence between management and shareholders...

Happens all the time when other opportunities call.

CFO resigned https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001425205/000110465925059464/tm2517988d1_8k.htm

"I was told I'd die from skin cancer - but my tumour disappeared with new therapy": https://inews.co.uk/news/health/skin-cancer-therapy-tumour-disappear-3726365

“The study demonstrates that for patients with few options left, a single infusion of lifileucel can provide a deep and lasting response and even complete remission in some cases. This marks a major advance in how we think about treating solid tumours.”

The next step is to help the onc docs to see TIL therapy as an earlier option, as a second line, not end of the line. This has shown to be even far more effective than these good results that we already see when used late in the disease progression.

Moving toward approval in foreign markets, numerous centers that did trials will become the first ATCs, centers that already have the experience necessary to hit the ground running.

GL

Jondoeuk, keeping with the goal of limiting off-topic, I chose to remove some posts that open the door to rebuttal. If I let one post stay up, I would need to allow responses which would then take us down that path again that we're trying to avoid.

Have a great day.

Spent a little time digesting the call and the transcript. Dr. Gastman was more conservative and obviously holding back a bit as is necessary when discussing trial data for lung. He can't definitively say without requiring an 8-K, but he most certainly implied that the numbers will be acceptable for the BLA which bodes well for us as shareholders.

Mr. Kirby was as expected, confident and focused. Exactly what I want from a CCO. Sales and marketing needed a lot more than they had previously and Kirby does seem like the real deal. It all depends on how effective they are at communicating with new docs, ATCs, and the entire medical teams necessary to start driving earlier referrals of patients. 3rd line+ is not going to cut it and they know that full well. Iovance needs more patients and earlier line patients to really impress and get that exponential growth that I believe is fully possible.

The big takeaway for me is the one we all know, lung is far bigger than the melanoma market, but melanoma is more than enough to be profitable. The slower start did reveal areas that needed attention but are fully correctible for the future success of Iovance. Melanoma was a great place to start and will make future indications pop much quicker upon their approvals now that many of those early bugs are worked out.

For me, the stock market just doesn't want to reward Iovance's past mistakes until some proof is given over the next couple Q's. Believability is still an issue.

End of the year should be bangin'.

GL to IOVA longs.

Bring back the institutional buyers!

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/iova/forecast

Theorysuit, sorry, but I'm trying to keep off-topic pumping of other companies off this board so I requested removal of the full chain.

Here's hoping we can keep those types of posts to a minimum.

This will get all the bulls excited for years to come.
https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:8ed05d38-f968-4cc6-a2d7-5db87accc20a

Yeah the shorts keep doubling down. 28%. The only thing is that this company has a lot of connections to hedge funds on their board. WR, PD are both connected. We will see.

Well I jumped in nearly today and am already happy. Caught today's low. If nothing else I see the institutions buying and then shorting when it hits say $8- $10

Looks like another 9 million added to the short interest as of 5/30/25. It's now up to 86 million shares short.

The recent rally with money returning to biotechs will only be helped by the shorts needing to cover some of their positions.

Shorts become the buyers as I continue to add shares. I guess we're competing for those shares.

GL to IOVA longs.

Fireside chat at Goldman Sachs, June 11th, 1:20 pm ET: https://ir.iovance.com/news-releases/news-release-details/iovance-biotherapeutics-present-upcoming-conference

Thanks for the reply!

surfkast, there is no perfect reloading zone. You always seemed to struggle with Iovance and have been nothing but frustrated. This may be one of those companies that you just avoid. It's still going to be bumpy for the coming months and years. Management hasn't demonstrated that they have full control of this process yet, so risk is real and I don't know if your heart can take it.

I'm excited about the science. I'm still adding shares. I believe the company is worth more to most any BP that wants to expand into TIL therapy, but I'm not convinced that the current management team is the best choice for shareholders. It may be time to just get the best offer from BP so that the science can fully flourish even though it would only be a minor gain for most of us who are long shares. I'm fairly confident that the minimum value right now is still in the $4-5 billion range ($12-15/share). Many of my friends and I have average cost of shares below $10. Iovance is certainly worth a lot more once they demonstrate control over the manufacturing process with higher success rates and increasing profit margins. I do believe that they're starting to understand the need to be far more aggressive in their selling and marketing due to the complexities of this process and the challenges in the logistics.

I hate saying this because if they could go it alone, meaning they have a handle on how to grow this company properly and efficiently, IOVA could be a major winner with sales exceeding $2 billion in just a few years, and assuming lung approval down the road, $3-4 billion in sales in maybe less than 5 years. IOVA could get to $40-50/share or more with those kinds of numbers.

But my point remains, IOVA may be a bit too much for you to play anymore. It's not going to be an easy ride even if you're cost per share is around $2.

My attitude, if you're going to trade it, then trade it, but if you're going to invest for the long haul, buy now and walk away for 1 year.

Good luck to the longs.

Did I miss the perfect reloading zone? Do I still jump back in?

It's not that I wanted to sell but I had put some high and I didn't think it would get there and above all that it wouldn't come back! Oh well let's celebrate anyway! I still have some, but if it go down, I'll take back some more!
It's nice when insiders buy with their own money!

I agree with everything you have said. Very thoughtful. Hope you are right for our collective good. Let’s enjoy this beautiful sunny weekend! Cheers Badger🥂

Friday saw a 5+ million share block of IOVA stock trade in the after hours. Any thoughts?

Kirby, the CCO, did buy 30k shares himself in the open market the day prior: https://ir.iovance.com/static-files/20026620-7f04-474c-a36a-f87af3132207

https://ir.iovance.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/4/0001104659-25-057310

Feel free to read the Insider Trading Policy for Iovance (but it still won't guarantee that you'll understand why insiders buy or don't buy): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1425205/000155837025001834/iova-20241231xex19d1.htm

Sunman, I still don't see the game the same way as you, but we're both taking this ride. I do agree that there were too many missteps and credibility is a hard thing to regain. I'm of the belief that the company is doing the right things now to correct for some of their past mistakes. For both our sakes, I hope I'm right and the company is learning and improving, and that your wrong regarding a plan to take this company private on the cheap.

We're riding together regardless so here's hoping for getting their act together and treating and ultimately helping and healing a great number of patients going forward.

The one thing we share in common is a belief in the science of TIL therapy being a very good option for a vast number of cancer patients.

I certainly hope we're not being played, and fwiw, I don't think we are. I think much of the guidance snafu was due to overzealous expectations that the initial ramp would go close to perfect. Failing to adjust for that overstatement sooner (or not even guiding) is still going to be a tough loss of confidence to overcome. Increasing revenues, margins, and successful new applications can cure a lot of our current concerns most certainly.

GL to us.

One year ago at this time it was at $18. Today, $2 makes you excited and you refer to it as a breakthrough!
The current interim CEO and his top line management team have lost credibility. Share price close to cash says it all. It remains under pressure and the ONLY way out of this mess is a blockbuster Q2 and Q3.
Firing of the CEO has a strong potential to add credibility.
A below par Q2 and Q3 means the end of IOVA for current common shareholders as the thugs would’ve succeeded in handing over the company for a liquidation fire sale for cheap.
Disclosure: I initiated a position at $1.75 and will sell half at $3. Will ride out the rest. Will add a bunch if it breaks $5 on solid lung cancer news and positive news from Amtagvi plus Keytruda trial as it would point to growing demand from the product while the company is learning to reduce COGS.

IOVA BREAKOUT!!

This is a brilliant response thank you! Yes you’re absolutely right it’s involved and time consuming.

jondoeuk, thanks for jumping in. There's just no helping this guy understand that this is an Iovance board. He posts his pretty pictures and graphs, he pumps his company of choice - a company on the verge of financial failure, he insults posters who don't fully agree with his interpretation of the science, and he simply has become a complete waste of time on this board. Some of his posts do get deleted for off-topic and for the equivalent of spam.

Any thoughts on how to educate someone who is so hell bent of causing confusion and spreading misinformation?

Thanks again for your info. Always appreciated.

Good luck to IOVA longs.

See what CYT107 can do?

The poster (click on it to reduce the compression)

Can you show a figure like the following? You have to have a significant number of Tscm cells.

TIL therapy cannot stimulate Tscm cells vital for immune memory.

From one IOVA presentation: ''Our novel TIL expansion process improves multiple metrics that correlate with both TIL persistence and response, including enhanced polyfunctionality, reduced inhibitory receptor expression and a less differentiated and more stem-like phenotype, while increasing yield.'' https://ascopubs.org/doi/10.1200/JCO.2023.41.16_suppl.2542

Can you show me a heatmap like the following from TIL therapy? If you can, I'll stop posting.